The overall sentiment for technology stocks is weak, but Pop Mart is consolidating against the trend, finding support at the HKD 200 level.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$The performance of Hong Kong's consumer sector is diverging, with leading toy company Pop Mart's stock price consolidating at high levels. As of the close on the afternoon of March 12, 2026, Pop Mart (09992) was trading at HKD 206.2, up 0.68%, with a five-day volatility of 10.1%. The intraday high and low were HKD 208.2 and HKD 202, respectively. At the corporate level, recent analysis has pointed out that market response to Pop Mart’s new IPs, Supertutu and 'Merodi After School,' has been lukewarm, with online sales and secondary market prices underperforming expectations. This reflects intensifying competition in the collectible toy industry and increasing difficulty in incubating new IPs.

Looking at the performance of stocks in the same sector, the overall sentiment for tech stocks today is relatively muted. Tencent (00700) $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ is trading at HK$546.5, down 0.1%; Meituan (03690) $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ is trading at HK$76.05, down 1.74%; Xiaomi Group (01810) $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ is trading at HK$33.3, down 0.18%; Kuaishou (01024) $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ is trading at HK$60, down 1.4%. Overall, the tech sector lacks clear direction as capital flows between individual stocks. Pop Mart's stock price is consolidating near the HK$200 mark, moving in line with the broader market.

From a technical perspective, Pop Mart's share price is currently at HK$206.2, still constrained by the 10-day moving average (HK$210.88) and the 30-day moving average (HK$230.31), reflecting weak short-term momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 39, nearing the oversold zone, indicating that downside pressure may ease, and a technical rebound could be building. Notably, several indicators such as the VR turnover ratio and bull-bear strength index have issued buy signals, suggesting underlying support at lower levels. The combined indicator signal is "buy" with an intensity of 10, raising expectations for a short-term rebound. However, some indicators remain volatile, and the short-term trend may require time to consolidate.

In terms of support and resistance levels, the primary support is currently at HK$193, which is a key short-term defense. A break below this level would necessitate testing the critical support area at HK$168. Resistance is concentrated at HK$225 and HK$252, with HK$225 being the primary target for a short-term rebound. Notably, the stock price has been contending around the HK$200 level recently, gradually digesting prior declines. If trading volume supports, a technical recovery may unfold. With the latest stock price at HK$203.8, it is situated between the support at HK$193 and resistance at HK$225. For short-term operations, it is advisable to view the movement as range-bound fluctuations, waiting to accumulate on dips or for breakout signals.

Reviewing the performance of warrant products, the two Pop Mart bear contracts we mentioned on March 10 performed well over the following two days, effectively capturing the underlying stock's pullback. Societe Generale Bear Contract (67252) recorded an 11% gain over the two days, while the underlying stock fell 1.07%; UBS Group Bear Contract (67830) gained 5%, with the underlying stock also falling 1.07%. Both products outperformed the underlying stock’s decline, demonstrating the leverage effect of bear contracts. The Societe Generale product performed particularly well, reflecting that products with closer stop-loss levels are more sensitive to underlying stock volatility.

In terms of deploying warrants and bull-bear contracts, investors can choose from the following products based on current support and resistance levels and their own risk preferences.

For call warrants, HSBC Call Warrant (24834) $HSPOMRT@EC2607A.C (24834.HK)$ The exercise price is 219.92 yuan, offering approximately 4.5x leverage; CMB Warrant (24801) with an exercise price of 218 yuan offers around 4.3x leverage. This exercise price is linked to the key resistance levels of 225 yuan and 252 yuan, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through resistance and recover upward. Comparing the two, HSBC Warrant (24834) has the advantage of the lowest implied volatility and higher leverage, offering stronger defense for valuation-sensitive investors; while CMB Warrant (24801) $CIPOMRT@EC2607B.C (24801.HK)$ offers the highest leverage and the lowest premium, making it more appealing for investors seeking an amplification effect.

For put warrants, J.P. Morgan Put Warrant (23040) $JPPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23040.HK)$ has an exercise price of 188.78 yuan, providing about 5.1x leverage; while Macquarie Put Warrant (23046) has an exercise price of 185.99 yuan, offering approximately 5x leverage. This exercise price is linked to the key support levels below 193 yuan and 168 yuan, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to test these supports further. Comparing the two, J.P. Morgan Put Warrant (23040) has the advantage of the lowest premium and higher leverage, which is more beneficial for cost-conscious investors; while Macquarie Put Warrant (23046) $MSPOMRT@EP2606A.P (23046.HK)$ has relatively lower implied volatility, offering better defensive characteristics for valuation-sensitive investors.

For bull contracts, HSBC Bull Contract (57271) $HS#POMRTRC2609E.C (57271.HK)$ has a stop-loss price of 181 yuan, providing about 6.8x effective leverage, with a relatively lower premium; UBS Group Bull Contract (57407) has a stop-loss price of 180 yuan, providing about 6.4x effective leverage, the highest effective leverage with a low premium. This stop-loss price is below the current primary support level of 193 yuan, offering ample buffer space, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to stabilize and rebound at the 193 yuan support level. Comparing the two, HSBC Bull Contract (57271) offers slightly higher effective leverage, while UBS Group Bull Contract (57407) has a lower stop-loss price, providing broader defensive space.

For bear contracts, J.P. Morgan Bear Contract (54833) $JP#POMRTRP2808R.P (54833.HK)$ has a stop-loss price of 229 yuan, providing about 6.9x effective leverage, the highest effective leverage with the lowest premium. This stop-loss price is linked to the key resistance levels between 225 yuan and 252 yuan, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price rebound to be capped by resistance levels. This product has an efficiency advantage in bearish deployments.

In summary, investors optimistic about Pop Mart's technical rebound can consider CMB Warrant (24801) to capture breakout opportunities or UBS Group Bull Contract (57407) for higher leverage deployment; while bearish investors can consider J.P. Morgan Put Warrant (23040) to hedge downside risk or J.P. Morgan Bear Contract (54833) to capture correction opportunities with maximum leverage.

Interactive Question:

Dear readers, Pop Mart (09992) RSI has dropped to 39, nearing the oversold region; a technical rebound may be brewing. Do you think it can successfully reclaim the resistance at 225 yuan in the short term?

A) Yes, technical indicators are signaling a buy, and a rebound is expected.

B) No, new IPs are underperforming and competition is intensifying; consolidation near 193 yuan is needed first.

C) Will first observe support at the 200 yuan level and wait for stabilization before making a decision.

Feel free to leave a comment sharing your trading strategy!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other data for a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

#Pop Mart #09992 #Hong Kong Stocks #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Warrants #Bull and Bear Certificates #Call Options #Put Options #Trendy Toy Sector

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