Yanzhou Coal (01171) Short-term Analysis: Surge in Oil and Gas Prices Triggers Substitution Effect, Stock Price Hits All-Time High

The Hong Kong-listed coal sector continues to strengthen driven by external factors. As of the close on March 12, 2026, Yanzhou Coal (01171) was trading at HKD 16.69, surging 8.52%, with a turnover of HKD 1.329 billion, and a five-day volatility of 19.7%. The intraday high reached HKD 16.82, setting a new all-time high.

Market news indicates that external factors have caused a surge in oil and gas prices, triggering an energy substitution effect, with institutions actively bullish on the coal market. A research report from Orient Securities points out that rising fuel costs have led to higher shipping fees, while soaring natural gas prices have prompted some regions to increase coal-fired power generation as a substitute for expensive natural gas, potentially driving a counter-seasonal rise in coal prices. CITIC Securities believes that external factors could boost coal prices and enhance sector valuation. In the same sector, Yancoal Australia (03668) $YANCOAL AUS (03668.HK)$ Up 4.6%, also hitting a new all-time high; China Coal Energy (01898) $CHINA COAL (01898.HK)$ Up 4.5%, Shougang Resources (00639) $SHOUGANG RES (00639.HK)$ Up 4%, coal stocks across the board are surging.

From a technical analysis perspective, based on data as of March 12, Yanzhou Coal’s share price at 16.68 yuan has stabilized above the 10-day line (14.7 yuan), 30-day line (13.32 yuan), and 60-day line (11.85 yuan), with moving averages showing a bullish alignment, reflecting strong short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 72, entering the overbought zone, indicating possible short-term profit-taking pressure, but the overall uptrend remains intact. Notably, multiple indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and Bollinger Bands are signaling buy opportunities, while the CCI indicator also shows a buy signal, supporting further upward movement in share price. However, Williams %R and Momentum Oscillator have signaled sell signals amid overbought conditions, with the composite indicator strength totaling 'Sell' at 9, suggesting that short-term gains may need consolidation.

In terms of support and resistance levels, the key immediate support level is 14.7 yuan, which is an important short-term defense line. A break below this would require testing the critical support area at 13.3 yuan. Resistance is concentrated around 17.9 yuan and 19 yuan, with 17.9 yuan being the short-term breakout target. It's worth noting whether sector strength can continue, requiring close attention to external trends and international energy price movements. If the logic of energy substitution persists, it will provide further upward momentum for Yanzhou Coal. Given the latest share price of 16.68 yuan, which is gradually approaching the 17.9 yuan resistance level, short-term trading should consider following the trend.

Reviewing the performance of warrant products, the two Yanzhou Coal call warrants we mentioned on March 10 showed exceptional performance in the following two days, effectively capturing the sharp rise in the underlying stock. The BNP Paribas call warrant (21298) recorded a 61% increase over two days, during which the underlying stock rose 13.16%; HSBC call warrant (24441) surged by 64%, with the underlying stock rising 13.16% in the same period. Both outpaced the underlying stock significantly, demonstrating the leverage effect of warrants and highlighting the sensitivity of out-of-the-money products to sharp rises in the underlying stock.

In terms of warrant deployment, considering current support and resistance levels, investors can choose from the following products based on their risk appetite. Bank of China call warrant (26206) has a strike price of 17.72 yuan, providing about 3.9x leverage; HSBC call warrant (26107) has a strike price of 17.71 yuan, also offering approximately 3.9x leverage. These strike prices align with the key resistance levels of 17.9 yuan and 19 yuan, suitable for investors expecting the share price to break through resistance and challenge the 18-yuan mark.

In summary, investors optimistic about further rebound in Yanzhou Coal may consider Bank of China call warrant (26206) or HSBC call warrant (26107) to capture breakout opportunities, but note that the RSI has entered the overbought zone, implying possible short-term volatility.

Interactive Questions:

Dear readers, Yanzhou Coal (01171) has hit a new all-time high today, with the RSI reaching 72 in the overbought zone. Do you think it will successfully break through the 17.9-yuan resistance in the short term?

A) Yes, if the energy substitution logic continues, the uptrend could extend further.

B) No, the short-term overbought condition is severe; consolidation within the range of HK$14.7 to HK$17.9 is needed first.

C) Will first observe the performance near HK$17.9; if it breaks through, further action can be considered.

Feel free to leave a comment and share your trading strategy!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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