Wall Street Brief (March 11): US stocks fluctuated on Tuesday, with growth stocks relatively resilient; defensive sentiment eased somewhat, but the market remains in a high volatility range, while gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin strengthened

Summary: On Tuesday, the US stock market diverged, with the S&P 500 Index down 0.21%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.07%, and the Russell 2000 Index down 0.22%; the VIX fell to 24.93, down 2.24% for the day, indicating that the most intense defensive sentiment had eased somewhat, but the market remains in a high volatility zone. The session did not see a full recovery, but rather a repricing around geopolitical risks and tech expectations: although oil prices have retreated from the extreme highs seen the previous day, the risk premium from the Middle East has not fully dissipated, causing indices to shift into wait-and-see mode; meanwhile, AI-related names like NVIDIA remained relatively resilient, helping the Nasdaq hold flat. In terms of major asset classes, the US Dollar Index rose 0.20%, gold increased by 1.08%, crude oil rose 1.54%, and Bitcoin gained 1.58%. Overall, the market shifted from "acute panic" to "cautious balance," but has yet to enter a clear phase of risk recovery.

I. Major Events

1. Oil prices moved away from extreme highs as the market shifted from panic selling to cautious observation

AP reports indicate that the core backdrop for US stock trading on March 10 was still the disruption to energy supplies caused by the Iran war. Although Brent crude oil has retreated significantly from the extreme high near $120 seen earlier in the previous session, the risk has not been fully resolved, with the market largely waiting for confirmation on whether the conflict will escalate or ease further. For the session, this means that panic selling temporarily eased, but it was not enough to support a full rebound in indices, ultimately resulting in a mixed performance where the Dow, S&P, and small caps were weaker, while the Nasdaq managed to hold flat.

2. Oracle's post-market earnings beat expectations, continuing the strong momentum of the AI cloud sector

Another key development after the close came from Oracle. Following its third-quarter earnings report, both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeded expectations, and the company raised its subsequent revenue forecast, further confirming that demand for enterprise cloud and AI solutions has not cooled. While this news did not directly determine the closing levels for the day, it reinforced investor preference for large-cap tech stocks during the session, also explaining why the Nasdaq and NVIDIA remained relatively resilient. For the market, this means that even amid high macro uncertainty, the AI-driven narrative remains the easiest area to attract capital inflows.

3. Improvement in China's inflation margin combined with the earnings report window, leading to continued recovery in Chinese stocks

China's CPI rose to 1.3% year-on-year in February, the fastest increase in over three years, marginally easing market concerns about weak domestic demand. At the same time, Chinese brokerages such as Futu entered the earnings report window, and funds began trading on performance and expectations of higher trading activity. As a result, Chinese stocks performed notably well against the backdrop of an otherwise weak U.S. market: FUTU surged 7.20%, while BABA, BIDU, and PDD also significantly outperformed the broader market. The price action indicates that the main driver for Chinese stocks is not isolated company events but rather a combination of improving macro sentiment and high-elasticity speculative dynamics.

II. Major Trends

Looking at the index structure, the most notable feature on Tuesday was not the magnitude of gains or losses but the divergence in direction. On a single-day basis, the Nasdaq rose only slightly by 0.01%, showing more resilience compared to the S&P 500’s -0.21% and the Russell 2000’s -0.22%, indicating that growth stocks still maintain some support in a high-volatility environment. Over the medium term, the market has not yet reached the stage of 'completed style rotation': over three months, RSP still outperforms SPY (2.50% vs -1.22%), and SPYV continues to lead SPYG (1.54% vs -3.62%). In other words, growth stocks have only temporarily stabilized, while broader, value-oriented sectors remain dominant in this phase.

III. Market Sentiment

The VIX fell to 24.93, a single-day decrease of 2.24%, indicating that the most intense hedging demand has eased compared to previous trading days, but its absolute level remains near 25, suggesting that the high-volatility environment has not ended. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained at 28 without further improvement, showing that investor sentiment remains in the fear zone, though it hasn’t deteriorated further. Meanwhile, over a three-month horizon, RSP continues to outperform SPY, indicating that market breadth does not support the idea that 'a few large-cap tech stocks are retaking control'; the Put/Call Ratio visible on YCharts remains in a relatively high range, reflecting that defensive positions have not significantly retreated. Overall, sentiment has shifted from acute panic to cautious observation, allowing the market to stabilize in the short term, but conditions for a broad-based rebound are still lacking.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

ETFs tracking major indices showed divergent performances, with QQQ remaining flat, making it the strongest performer, while SPY fell 0.16%, lagging behind. This suggests that capital is more willing to stay invested in growth-weighted assets rather than fully returning to large-cap indices. Compared to risk recovery in the previous trading session, Tuesday felt more like a 'pause after recovery': the technology sector could still hold up, but overall market support remained insufficient.

2. Sector Performance

Differences within industry sectors were even more pronounced. XLK remained flat, indicating that some funds are still willing to hold onto tech stocks in a high-volatility environment. In contrast, XLE fell 1.28%, weakening despite crude oil rising 1.54%, showing clear profit-taking in energy stocks that had seen significant gains earlier. The market did not evolve into a one-way trade of 'oil prices rise, energy stocks rally,' but instead started shifting back to more complex structural dynamics.

3. Seven tech giants

Among the seven major tech stocks, NVIDIA rose 1.16%, continuing to act as a bellwether for the AI theme; in contrast, NFLX dropped 1.40%, clearly lagging within the tech sector. This combination is typical: the market isn't indiscriminately buying tech but is concentrating funds into areas with narratives around AI capital expenditures and cloud demand. The Nasdaq’s ability to hold steady essentially relies on a few high-quality tech heavyweights propping up sentiment.

4. Chinese Equities

Chinese stocks were among the most elastic directions of the day. Futu surged 7.20%, becoming the core leader in the sector, while Alibaba rose 3.17%, Baidu climbed 2.47%, and Pinduoduo increased 2.16%, indicating a clear recovery in risk appetite toward China's internet and brokerage chains. Marginal improvement in China's inflation provided a macro backdrop, and Futu entering the earnings season gave investors a stronger speculative handle, so the recovery in Chinese stocks outpacing the broader U.S. market is unsurprising.

5. Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin's latest quote continued to recover, rising 1.58% on the day, showing that high-volatility risk assets have not lost elasticity despite the broader market's caution. Among related stocks, CRCL surged 5.59%, significantly outperforming major indices, indicating that stablecoin and crypto payment chains continue to attract trading-related buying. By comparison, relevant concept stocks haven't shown widespread dispersion, suggesting that this segment still depends on maintaining risk appetite. In the current market environment, it remains one of the few branches capable of continuously demonstrating elasticity.

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