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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Mar 10 09:02

The technical divergence of the Hang Seng Index intensifies, and the market's downward trend remains unchanged.

On the previous day (March 9th), $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The market closed at 25,408.46 points, falling 1.35% in a single day with a 5-day volatility of 5.2%. The overall trend showed a weak oscillating pullback pattern, failing to sustain the technical rebound from the previous trading day (March 6th).
From a market logic perspective, the moving average system above (especially MA10 and MA30) has formed effective resistance. Investors have shown a strong willingness to reduce holdings on rallies. The trading volume was 392.33 billion yuan, which did not increase during the rebound, also reflecting insufficient market confidence, with no obvious signs of stabilization yet.
On the previous day (March 9), $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,408.46 points, falling 1.35% in a single day, with a five-day volatility of 5.2%. The overall market exhibited a weak oscillation and pullback pattern, as the technical rebound from the previous trading day (March 6) failed to continue. From a market logic perspective, the upper moving average system (especially MA10 and MA30) exerted effective pressure, with investors showing strong willingness to reduce holdings on rallies. The trading volume was 392.33 billion yuan, failing to expand during the rebound, which also reflects insufficient market confidence, and no clear signs of stabilization have emerged yet. The most prominent feature of the market yesterday was the exacerbation of the 'price decline versus indicator buy' technical divergence phenomenon. We will analyze this further using individual stock data: 1. Moving Average Trends: Most blue-chip stocks closed below short- and medium-term moving averages such as MA10 and MA30, with only a few exceptions like $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ closing above MA60. The moving average system overall showed weak alignment, indicating significant pressure for short-term rebounds. Meanwhile, $CCB (00939.HK)$ : closed at 7.92 yuan, also above MA60, with an RSI44 near neutral levels. It was one of the few blue chips that closed higher yesterday. Its technical outlook lacks a clear direction, suggesting a narrow-range oscillation pattern. 2. RSI Indicator: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$RSI is only at 25, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ RS...
The most prominent feature of the market yesterday was the exacerbation of the technical divergence phenomenon of 'falling stock prices but buying signals on indicators.' We analyze this by breaking down individual stock data:
1. Moving Average Trend: The closing prices of most blue-chip stocks were below short-term and medium-term moving averages such as MA10 and MA30. Only a few individual stocks, such as $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$closed above MA60. The moving average system as a whole showed a weak arrangement, with significant pressure for short-term rebounds. And $CCB (00939.HK)$: The closing price was 7.92 yuan, also above MA60, with an RSI of 44 near neutral. It was one of the few blue chips that closed positive yesterday, showing a narrow-range oscillation pattern without a clear technical direction.
2. RSI Indicator: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ RSI is only at 25, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ RSI at 29, both entering the oversold zone; the RSI of most stocks is in the range of 30-45, indicating weakness but nearing the edge of being oversold, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may slow down.
3. Combined Signals: Including Alibaba, $PING AN (02318.HK)$ 、 $AIA (01299.HK)$ among others, multiple stocks show a combined technical indicator signal of 'buy', with strength ranging from 7 to 11, mainly due to rapid price declines causing oscillation indicators to be oversold, triggering systematic buy signals, though this does not imply a trend reversal, but rather a possibility of short-term technical recovery.
4. Support and Resistance:The support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 24,780 and 24,018, while resistance levels are 26,242 and 26,975; yesterday, the Hang Seng Index hovered around 25,408, in the middle range, and subsequent attention should focus on the defense strength of the lower support levels.
On the previous day (March 9), $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,408.46 points, falling 1.35% in a single day, with a five-day volatility of 5.2%. The overall market exhibited a weak oscillation and pullback pattern, as the technical rebound from the previous trading day (March 6) failed to continue. From a market logic perspective, the upper moving average system (especially MA10 and MA30) exerted effective pressure, with investors showing strong willingness to reduce holdings on rallies. The trading volume was 392.33 billion yuan, failing to expand during the rebound, which also reflects insufficient market confidence, and no clear signs of stabilization have emerged yet. The most prominent feature of the market yesterday was the exacerbation of the 'price decline versus indicator buy' technical divergence phenomenon. We will analyze this further using individual stock data: 1. Moving Average Trends: Most blue-chip stocks closed below short- and medium-term moving averages such as MA10 and MA30, with only a few exceptions like $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ closing above MA60. The moving average system overall showed weak alignment, indicating significant pressure for short-term rebounds. Meanwhile, $CCB (00939.HK)$ : closed at 7.92 yuan, also above MA60, with an RSI44 near neutral levels. It was one of the few blue chips that closed higher yesterday. Its technical outlook lacks a clear direction, suggesting a narrow-range oscillation pattern. 2. RSI Indicator: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$RSI is only at 25, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ RS...
Review and Selection of Warrants and Bull/Bear Products:
Combining market trends, we review previously recommended warrant and bull/bear products, and select two suitable products for your reference:
(1) Review of previous products:
The four Hang Seng Index-related products recommended on March 3 all saw good gains, aligning with the downward movement of the index:
1、 $JP-HSI @EP2605A.P (22976.HK)$ : Increased by 19% after two days, corresponding to a 1.73% drop in the Hang Seng Index;
2、 $BI-HSI @EP2606B.P (24183.HK)$ : Up 17% in two days, compared to a 1.73% drop in the Hang Seng Index;
3、 $BI#HSI RP2804T.P (66631.HK)$ 、 $BI#HSI RP28044.P (66206.HK)$ : Increases of 38% and 37% respectively in two days, perfectly matching market trends. It also serves as a reminder that leveraged products like CBBCs and bull/bear contracts have high leverage, requiring close attention to market fluctuations.
On the previous day (March 9), $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,408.46 points, falling 1.35% in a single day, with a five-day volatility of 5.2%. The overall market exhibited a weak oscillation and pullback pattern, as the technical rebound from the previous trading day (March 6) failed to continue. From a market logic perspective, the upper moving average system (especially MA10 and MA30) exerted effective pressure, with investors showing strong willingness to reduce holdings on rallies. The trading volume was 392.33 billion yuan, failing to expand during the rebound, which also reflects insufficient market confidence, and no clear signs of stabilization have emerged yet. The most prominent feature of the market yesterday was the exacerbation of the 'price decline versus indicator buy' technical divergence phenomenon. We will analyze this further using individual stock data: 1. Moving Average Trends: Most blue-chip stocks closed below short- and medium-term moving averages such as MA10 and MA30, with only a few exceptions like $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ closing above MA60. The moving average system overall showed weak alignment, indicating significant pressure for short-term rebounds. Meanwhile, $CCB (00939.HK)$ : closed at 7.92 yuan, also above MA60, with an RSI44 near neutral levels. It was one of the few blue chips that closed higher yesterday. Its technical outlook lacks a clear direction, suggesting a narrow-range oscillation pattern. 2. RSI Indicator: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$RSI is only at 25, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ RS...
(II) Selected Products:
In light of the market's bearish bias and the Hang Seng Index’s volatile pullback, two standout products have been selected, balancing risk and flexibility:
1、 $BI-HSI @EP2606B.P (24183.HK)$ : Leverage 9.9, strike price 23,482. Key features include the lowest implied volatility, high leverage, suitable for the current bearish trend with strong operational flexibility.
2、 $JP-HSI @EP2605A.P (22976.HK)$ : Leverage 11.3, strike price 23,400. Key features include the lowest premium, high leverage, relatively controllable costs, making it suitable for short-term trading aligned with market movements.
On the previous day (March 9), $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,408.46 points, falling 1.35% in a single day, with a five-day volatility of 5.2%. The overall market exhibited a weak oscillation and pullback pattern, as the technical rebound from the previous trading day (March 6) failed to continue. From a market logic perspective, the upper moving average system (especially MA10 and MA30) exerted effective pressure, with investors showing strong willingness to reduce holdings on rallies. The trading volume was 392.33 billion yuan, failing to expand during the rebound, which also reflects insufficient market confidence, and no clear signs of stabilization have emerged yet. The most prominent feature of the market yesterday was the exacerbation of the 'price decline versus indicator buy' technical divergence phenomenon. We will analyze this further using individual stock data: 1. Moving Average Trends: Most blue-chip stocks closed below short- and medium-term moving averages such as MA10 and MA30, with only a few exceptions like $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ closing above MA60. The moving average system overall showed weak alignment, indicating significant pressure for short-term rebounds. Meanwhile, $CCB (00939.HK)$ : closed at 7.92 yuan, also above MA60, with an RSI44 near neutral levels. It was one of the few blue chips that closed higher yesterday. Its technical outlook lacks a clear direction, suggesting a narrow-range oscillation pattern. 2. RSI Indicator: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$RSI is only at 25, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ RS...
On the previous day (March 9), $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,408.46 points, falling 1.35% in a single day, with a five-day volatility of 5.2%. The overall market exhibited a weak oscillation and pullback pattern, as the technical rebound from the previous trading day (March 6) failed to continue. From a market logic perspective, the upper moving average system (especially MA10 and MA30) exerted effective pressure, with investors showing strong willingness to reduce holdings on rallies. The trading volume was 392.33 billion yuan, failing to expand during the rebound, which also reflects insufficient market confidence, and no clear signs of stabilization have emerged yet. The most prominent feature of the market yesterday was the exacerbation of the 'price decline versus indicator buy' technical divergence phenomenon. We will analyze this further using individual stock data: 1. Moving Average Trends: Most blue-chip stocks closed below short- and medium-term moving averages such as MA10 and MA30, with only a few exceptions like $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ 、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ closing above MA60. The moving average system overall showed weak alignment, indicating significant pressure for short-term rebounds. Meanwhile, $CCB (00939.HK)$ : closed at 7.92 yuan, also above MA60, with an RSI44 near neutral levels. It was one of the few blue chips that closed higher yesterday. Its technical outlook lacks a clear direction, suggesting a narrow-range oscillation pattern. 2. RSI Indicator: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$RSI is only at 25, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ RS...
Risk Warning: Leveraged products such as CBBCs and bull/bear contracts are derivatives with significant leverage effects and high volatility. Investors should trade responsibly according to their risk tolerance.
The market is still in the process of bottom-fishing and consolidating. Before effectively reclaiming and stabilizing above the MA10, caution is advised, and excessive trading should be avoided. Focus on two key points: whether individual stocks can stabilize at current levels, and changes in trading volume. For stocks showing technical divergence, some attention can be given, but blindly bottom-fishing should be avoided until clear reversal signals appear.
Your sentiment towards the current Hong Kong stock market is: A. Pessimistic, preparing to reduce positions. B. Optimistic, currently adding positions. C. Numb, already resigned.
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#Hong Kong Stocks #Hang Seng Index #Real-time Analysis #Warrants Selection #Warrants Strategy #Derivatives Hedging #HK Stock Warrants by Jenny #Blue Chips #Financial Sector #Technical Analysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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