The US-Iran peace talks present conflicting narratives! What’s next for oil prices?

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Non-farm data triggered stagflation concerns, 24 states jointly sued Trump's tariff policy, and US tech giants collectively corrected

Last week, global markets faced multiple shocks. The US non-farm payroll data showed a significant decline, directly intensifying market fears of 'stagflation.' Affected by this, all three major US stock indexes closed lower, with the S&P 500 index falling more than 2% for the week, and the Nasdaq Mag 7 generally retreating. Meanwhile, macro policy turbulence resurfaced: 24 US states jointly filed a lawsuit to block the Trump administration’s global tariff policy; Blackrock's private credit fund was forced to limit buybacks due to redemption pressure, causing volatility in financial stocks. Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, with international oil prices surging significantly, prompting global capital to reassess risk asset pricing. How will the market evolve this week?

Content compiled by the 'Harbor Family Office' under Henry Group. It does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Stay tuned.

Focus on Hot Topics>>>

– The son of Khamenei becomes Iran's new Supreme Leader

According to foreign media reports, on March 9 local time, Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Khamenei, would serve as Iran’s new Supreme Leader. According to Iran’s constitution, the Supreme Leader has the final say in most matters and serves as the commander-in-chief of Iran’s armed forces. Mojtaba is widely regarded by outsiders as a mid-ranking hardline cleric, and his appointment means that the current hardliners’ control over securities in Iran has been further consolidated. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he would launch a “relentless” strike against Iran’s rulers. This transfer of power has added new uncertainties to the situation in the Middle East.

– Iran’s president sends conciliatory signals to neighboring countries, calling Trump’s statements 'wishful thinking'

Iranian President Pezeshkian expressed regret over the recent impact of Iran's actions on neighboring countries and urged these nations not to join any potential military actions against Iran by Israel and the US. He stated that the interim leadership council has agreed to suspend military operations against neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originate from their territories. He described Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender by Iran as 'wishful thinking,' showcasing Iran’s firm stance amid the current situation.

– Pressure in the US private credit market has increased, with Blackrock's private credit fund announcing redemption restrictions

On March 6 local time, Blackrock, a top global asset management company, issued a statement indicating that shareholders of its flagship private credit fund requested redemptions for 9.3% of shares, but fund management decided to set the repurchase limit at 5%. This move triggered market concerns, causing Blackrock's stock price to fall more than 8% on the same day, while other alternative asset management companies such as Blue Owl and Ares Management also saw their stock prices decline due to a surge in investor redemption requests.

– Over 20 US states file lawsuits against the Trump administration to block implementation of its global tariff policy

On March 5 local time, Oregon’s Department of Justice issued a statement, announcing that it had joined 23 other US states in formally filing a lawsuit with the US Court of International Trade to block the Trump administration's recently announced measure to impose uniform tariffs on imports from all countries. The 24 states filing the lawsuit argued that this tariff measure was implemented under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which was originally intended to address short-term monetary emergencies, and the Trump administration had no authority to use it to resolve regular trade imbalances caused by long-term trade deficits.

Stock market >>>

– US Market: All three major US stock indexes closed lower, S&P 500 weekly loss exceeds 2%

Last Friday's significant drop in US nonfarm payroll data added uncertainty to the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Fed in the near term. Coupled with rising oil prices driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, market concerns about 'stagflation' have grown. Financial stocks plummeted due to panic over redemption pressures in the private credit market. All three major US stock indexes closed lower, with the Nasdaq falling over 1.5%, the S&P 500 index dropping more than 2% last week, and the VIX fear index surging nearly 50% last week.

As of last Friday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.95% to 47,501.55 points, losing 3.01% for the week; the S&P 500 Index dropped 1.33% to 6,740.02 points, down 2.02% for the week; and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.59% to 22,387.679 points, declining 1.24% for the week. The VIX fear index rose 24.25% to 29.51 points, surging 48.59% last week. The semiconductor sector fell over 3.5%, while the aviation and banking sectors declined over 2%.

Last Friday, the Mag 7 index fell 1.74%, with all stocks in the red. NVIDIA fell nearly 3%, Amazon dropped 2.62%, Meta fell nearly 2.4%, Tesla dropped 2.17%, and Apple fell 1.09%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.69% to 6,961.05 points last Friday, but fell 4.35% for the week, marking the second consecutive week of losses exceeding 3.5%. GDS Holdings surged over 7%, JD.com gained over 6%, Xiaomi climbed over 3%, and Tencent rose over 2%.

– European markets: Major stock indexes across Europe fell last Friday, with weekly declines generally exceeding 5%.

Last Friday, major stock indexes in European countries all declined, continuing a downward trend throughout the week, with weekly drops generally surpassing 5%. The STOXX 600 Index fell below 600 points. Last Friday, the pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed down 1.02% at 598.69 points, accumulating a weekly loss of 5.55%. Sector indices for automobiles, construction and materials, banking, personal and household goods, and basic resources all dropped more than 8% last week. The pan-European STOXX 50 Index closed down 1.01%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 5.61%.

The DAX Index in Germany closed down 0.94% at 23,591.03 points, with a weekly decline of 6.70%; the FTSE 100 Index in the UK closed down 1.24% at 10,284.75 points, with a weekly drop of 5.74%; the CAC 40 Index in France closed down 0.65% at 7,993.49 points, with a weekly fall of 6.84%.

– Asia-Pacific markets: Last Friday, major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed mixed results, with weekly declines due to tensions in the Middle East.

Last Friday, major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed mixed performance, with overall weekly losses influenced by Middle East tensions. By the close, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 0.62%, closing at 55,620.84 points; Japan's TOPIX Index rose 0.39%, ending at 3,716.93 points. South Korea’s KOSPI Index edged up 0.02%, finishing at 5,584.87 points. For other key regional indexes, Singapore’s Straits Index added 0.13%, closing at 4,852.72 points; Thailand’s SET Index fell 0.49%, ending at 1,410.37 points; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 1.00%, closing at 8,851.00 points.

– Hong Kong stocks: The three major indexes in Hong Kong closed higher, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 3%.

Last Friday, Hong Kong's three major stock indexes closed higher, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 3%. At the close, the Hang Seng Index was up 1.72% at 25,757.29 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.15%, ending at 4,947.50 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 2.09%, closing at 8,628.13 points. In terms of sectors, large technology companies generally performed well, with JD.com surging 9.95%, NetEase closing up 5.23%, and Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent all gaining more than 3%. Chip stocks were mostly higher, with GigaDevice rising over 5%, SMIC closing up 0.49%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor adding 0.86%.

– A-share Market: A-shares rebounded from an early low last Friday, with the three major indexes all closing higher.

Last Friday, A-shares opened lower but then rebounded, with the three major indexes all closing higher. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.38% at 4,124.19 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, ending at 14,172.63 points; the ChiNext Index climbed 0.38%, closing at 3,229.30 points. In terms of sector themes, shares in emerging pillar industries mentioned during the Two Sessions, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, low-altitude economy, and AI applications, performed well, while consumer staples and fintech sectors were active. On the downside, oil and gas, non-ferrous metals, and shipping sectors retreated. In individual stocks, the share price of Nexperia’s parent company, Wingtech Technology, surged in the afternoon session, rising over 9% at one point before paring gains.

Bonds >>>

– US Treasuries: Last Friday, US Treasury yields fell following the release of non-farm payroll data, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising approximately 20 basis points over the week.

Last Friday, US Treasury yields fell significantly after the release of the non-farm payroll data. However, last week, US Treasury yields still rose due to market risk aversion driven by uncertainties in the Middle East's geopolitical situation. In late New York trading, the two-year US Treasury yield fell by 1.59 basis points to 3.5605%, while it gained a total of 18.56 basis points last week. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 0.19 basis points to 4.1383%, with an accumulated increase of about 20 basis points last week.

– Non-US bond markets: Eurozone government bond yields generally rose last Friday

Last Friday, the 10-year Eurozone government bond yields generally rose, and the UK 10-year government bond surged nearly 40 basis points last week. The 10-year German government bond yield increased by 0.8 basis points to 2.86%, with a cumulative rise of 21.6 basis points last week, marking the largest weekly gain in nearly a year. The 10-year French government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.515%, with a cumulative drop of 8.4 basis points last week. The 10-year UK government bond yield increased by 8.6 basis points to 4.627%, with a cumulative rise of 39.4 basis points last week.

– Government bonds: Last Friday, government bond futures saw mixed performance

Last Friday, government bond futures experienced significant fluctuations overall, giving back gains at the end of trading. By the close, the 30-year main contract rose by 0.03%, the 10-year main contract remained unchanged from the previous trading day, the 5-year main contract stayed flat compared to the prior trading day, and the 2-year main contract fell by 0.01%.

Foreign exchange >>>

– US Dollar: The US dollar index fell last Friday, with the ICE US dollar index declining 0.30% last week

Last Friday, the US dollar index fell. As of the end of forex trading last Friday, the ICE US dollar index dropped by 0.30% to 99.019 points, with a cumulative increase of 1.44% last week. The Bloomberg US dollar index fell by 0.07% to 1,203.50 points, with a cumulative rise of 1.36% last week.

– Non-US currencies: Last Friday, the US dollar weakened against major currencies, with the yen falling more than 1% for the week

The US dollar weakened against major currencies last Friday, with the yen falling over 1% last week. At the end of forex trading last Friday, the US dollar rose 0.18% against the yen to 157.87 yen, with a cumulative increase of 1.17% last week. The euro rose 0.07% against the dollar, the pound rose 0.35% against the dollar, the Swiss franc fell 0.65% against the dollar, and the Australian dollar rose 0.27% against the dollar.

– Chinese yuan: The US dollar closed at 6.9030 yuan per offshore Chinese yuan last Friday

The US dollar traded at 6.9030 against the offshore yuan in New York late Friday, up 150 points from the previous trading day (Thursday). The onshore yuan stood at 6.8981 per dollar, rising 22 points from the previous trading day.

– Virtual assets: The virtual asset market fell last Friday, with Bitcoin price dropping by about 4%.

The virtual asset market rose midweek last week but then continued to decline. By late Friday in New York, Bitcoin had fallen by about 4%, while Ethereum dropped approximately 4.5% on Friday.

Products >>>

– Energy: Oil prices surged again last Friday, with US crude futures gaining over 35.5% cumulatively last week.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices extended their rally last Friday, surging above $90 per barrel. Brent crude futures settled at $92.69 per barrel, up about 8.5%. US crude futures closed at $90.90 per barrel, rising approximately 12.2%, and gained more than 35.5% cumulatively last week.

– Precious metals: Precious metals strengthened last Friday, though spot gold prices fell about 2% for the week.

Gold:After a significant drop on Tuesday last week, gold prices stabilized for the remainder of the week, eventually rising overall on Friday due to market panic. Spot gold climbed about 1.75% in late New York trading to settle at $5,171.00 per ounce, down about 2% for the week. US gold futures increased by approximately 1.9% to close at $5,175.00 per ounce, declining about 1.3% for the week.

Metal Futures Market:Spot silver prices rose 2.55% to $84.345 per ounce, down 10.06% for the week. US silver futures gained 2.88% to settle at $84.545 per ounce, falling 9.35% cumulatively last week. US copper futures rose 0.59% to $5.8385 per pound, dropping 3.64% for the week. Spot platinum fell nearly 9.5% last week, while spot palladium declined nearly 9%.

[Disclaimer]

The content above is provided by Harbor Family Office (hereinafter referred to as "Harbor Family Office"), sourced from market information gathered from various channels. Neither Harbor Family Office nor its group members participated in preparing the content, nor did they explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve it. This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Investment involves risks. Readers should independently evaluate and judge this information and are advised to consult professionals before making any investment or trading decisions. Without authorization, no one may reproduce, copy, or publish the content in whole or in part to the public in any manner. Copyright belongs to Harbor Family Office and relevant providers.

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