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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Mar 9 13:22

CATL's technical bottoming before earnings: Key support at 475 yuan must hold

Last month, Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the results of its quarterly review, $CATL (03750.HK)$ 、 $CMOC (03993.HK)$and$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ Added to the Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, removing $ZHONGSHENG HLDG (00881.HK)$ , increasing the number of constituents from 88 to 90, with all changes taking effect today. After CATL, Laopu Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum were added to the Hang Seng Index, their weightings are 0.39%, 0.29%, and 0.51% respectively.
It is worth noting that the recent share price of CATL, newly included in the index, has shown a weak consolidation pattern. Before the market awaits its earnings announcement, the stock price fell by more than 3%, currently trading at 495.4 yuan, and has been running below key moving averages for several consecutive trading days. The current stock price not only broke below the 10-day (500.65), 30-day (498.96), and 60-day lines (499.81) but also fell below these three moving averages, indicating a weaker short-to-medium term trend with multiple layers of downward pressure above.
From the perspective of key technical indicators, market momentum shows conflicting signals, and the overall bearish structure has not yet reversed. Although the 'summary signal of technical indicators' indicates 'buy,' the strength is only 9, showing divergence from various oscillation indicators. Specifically, both the stochastic oscillator and CCI indicators have issued 'sell signals,' suggesting price momentum remains in the weak region, potentially lacking sufficient upward momentum in the short term. The RSI indicator stands at 45, which, while not entering the oversold zone, shows a downward trend, indicating a 'neutral' but weaker pattern. Additionally, Williams %R, Momentum Oscillator, and ADX indicators also point to 'neutral' or 'sell,' further confirming the absence of strong unilateral upward momentum in the current market. Notably, the MACD signal maintains a 'sell,' and the stock price continues to operate below the middle Bollinger Band, implying that downside risks have not been fully released.
In terms of key price levels, investors need to closely monitor two levels of support and resistance. The first important support level is at 475 yuan; if this level is effectively broken, it may further test the second support level at 445 yuan, opening up deeper adjustment space. On the upside, resistance initially lies at 521 yuan (resistance 1); if accompanied by favorable earnings results, reclaiming this level could challenge the more critical 546 yuan (resistance 2) area, where multiple moving averages converge, making it difficult to break through.
In summary, before the earnings outlook becomes clear, it is not advisable to hastily build positions based solely on a weak buy summary signal. A more prudent strategy would be to wait until after the earnings release and observe the stock’s defense of the key 475 yuan (support 1) level, as well as whether it can recover the 500 yuan (moving average cluster) level with increased trading volume. If it breaks above 521 yuan on high volume, the short-term technical structure will turn positive; conversely, if it fails to hold 475 yuan, caution is warranted against the risk of intensified technical selling pressure.
CATL (3750) Derivatives Market Layout
Call Warrants: Street holdings are concentrated in the 600-630 yuan (51.2%) and 720-900 yuan (32.7%) ranges; the most active trading occurs within the 600-629 yuan range, accounting for 62.8% of total trading volume. These warrants are out-of-the-money by 22%-28%, with implied volatility averaging 40%-43%, actual leverage between 6-10.5 times, and an average time to expiration of 180 days, offering both safety margin and return elasticity, suitable for medium-term bullish investors.
Put Warrants: Street holdings are concentrated in the 380-410 yuan (46.5%) and 350-380 yuan (27.9%) ranges; the most active trading occurs within the 390-409 yuan range, accounting for 58.2% of total trading volume. These warrants are out-of-the-money by 16%-21%, with actual leverage between 4.5-9.5 times, implied volatility averaging 44%-46%, and an average time to expiration of 150 days. Out-of-the-money levels of 16% or higher can cover short-term fluctuations, making them suitable for hedging medium-term downside risks.
Bull Certificates: Street holdings are concentrated in the 460-470 yuan (45.3%) and 410-430 yuan (31.8%) ranges; the most active trading occurs within the 420-430 yuan range, accounting for 67.2% of total trading volume. These certificates are out-of-the-money by 12%-14.5%, with actual leverage between 5.5-6.5 times, and an average time to expiration of 180 days. With no implied volatility risk, they directly track stock price movements, making them suitable for betting on short-term rebounds.
Bear Certificates: Street holdings are concentrated in the 550-560 yuan (52.7%) and 590-610 yuan (28.4%) ranges; the most active trading occurs within the 550-560 yuan range, accounting for 70.1% of total trading volume. These certificates are out-of-the-money by 11%-13%, with actual leverage between 5.8-6.2 times, and an average time to expiration of about 2.5 years. The extremely long expiration period avoids rollover losses, making them suitable for long-term holding to hedge policy risks.
Last month, Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the results of its quarterly review, $CATL (03750.HK)$ 、 $CMOC (03993.HK)$and$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ Added to the Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, removing $ZHONGSHENG HLDG (00881.HK)$ , increasing the number of constituents from 88 to 90, with all changes taking effect today. After CATL, Laopu Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum were added to the Hang Seng Index, their weightings are 0.39%, 0.29%, and 0.51% respectively. Notably, the newly added CATL has shown a weak consolidation pattern recently. Before the market awaits its earnings announcement, the stock price fell more than 3%, last trading at 495.4 yuan, having been below key moving averages for several consecutive trading days. The current price has not only broken below the 10-day (500.65), 30-day (498.96), and 60-day lines (499.81) but also is lower than these three moving averages, indicating a weak short-to-medium term trend with overhead resistance forming. From the perspective of key technical indicators, market momentum shows conflicting signals, with an overall bearish structure yet to reverse. Although the 'Technical Indicator Summary Signal' indicates 'Buy', the strength is only 9, showing divergence with multiple oscillation indicators. Specifically, both the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI indicators signal 'Sell', indicating that price momentum is in a weak zone, potentially lacking sufficient upward force in the short term. The RSI is at 45, though not yet in oversold territory...
Last month, Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the results of its quarterly review, $CATL (03750.HK)$ 、 $CMOC (03993.HK)$and$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ Added to the Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, removing $ZHONGSHENG HLDG (00881.HK)$ , increasing the number of constituents from 88 to 90, with all changes taking effect today. After CATL, Laopu Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum were added to the Hang Seng Index, their weightings are 0.39%, 0.29%, and 0.51% respectively. Notably, the newly added CATL has shown a weak consolidation pattern recently. Before the market awaits its earnings announcement, the stock price fell more than 3%, last trading at 495.4 yuan, having been below key moving averages for several consecutive trading days. The current price has not only broken below the 10-day (500.65), 30-day (498.96), and 60-day lines (499.81) but also is lower than these three moving averages, indicating a weak short-to-medium term trend with overhead resistance forming. From the perspective of key technical indicators, market momentum shows conflicting signals, with an overall bearish structure yet to reverse. Although the 'Technical Indicator Summary Signal' indicates 'Buy', the strength is only 9, showing divergence with multiple oscillation indicators. Specifically, both the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI indicators signal 'Sell', indicating that price momentum is in a weak zone, potentially lacking sufficient upward force in the short term. The RSI is at 45, though not yet in oversold territory...
Product Picks:
For bullish options, $BI-CATL@EC2606A.C (16725.HK)$Offering approximately 5.8 times leverage with relatively low implied volatility, it has an advantage in cost control; for those seeking lower premiums and implied volatility,$CI-CATL@EC2606A.C (17714.HK)$The strike price of 459.08 yuan represents a relatively in-the-money, cautiously bullish choice. For bearish strategies, the BOC put warrant (26420) offers around 5 times leverage with balanced terms; while$UB-CATL@EP2609A.P (26402.HK)$provides the highest leverage of 4.8 times among similar products, suitable for aggressive bearish positions.
In terms of leveraged products,$HS#CATL RC2611A.C (68836.HK)$With a recovery price of 420 yuan and the lowest premium, it is an efficient tool for betting on a rebound;$UB#CATL RC2609B.C (67846.HK)$offers the highest actual leverage, reaching 5.5 times. If you believe there will be a downward breakout after earnings,$UB#CATL RP2812A.P (59966.HK)$with a recovery price of 550 yuan, provides about 6 times actual leverage, making it a choice for hedging downside risk.
Last month, Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the results of its quarterly review, $CATL (03750.HK)$ 、 $CMOC (03993.HK)$and$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ Added to the Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, removing $ZHONGSHENG HLDG (00881.HK)$ , increasing the number of constituents from 88 to 90, with all changes taking effect today. After CATL, Laopu Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum were added to the Hang Seng Index, their weightings are 0.39%, 0.29%, and 0.51% respectively. Notably, the newly added CATL has shown a weak consolidation pattern recently. Before the market awaits its earnings announcement, the stock price fell more than 3%, last trading at 495.4 yuan, having been below key moving averages for several consecutive trading days. The current price has not only broken below the 10-day (500.65), 30-day (498.96), and 60-day lines (499.81) but also is lower than these three moving averages, indicating a weak short-to-medium term trend with overhead resistance forming. From the perspective of key technical indicators, market momentum shows conflicting signals, with an overall bearish structure yet to reverse. Although the 'Technical Indicator Summary Signal' indicates 'Buy', the strength is only 9, showing divergence with multiple oscillation indicators. Specifically, both the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI indicators signal 'Sell', indicating that price momentum is in a weak zone, potentially lacking sufficient upward force in the short term. The RSI is at 45, though not yet in oversold territory...
This time, Hang Seng Index added CATL, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Laopu Gold, while removing Zhongsheng Group. Which new component do you think will perform the strongest in the next month? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis presented may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using additional sources, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'HK Stock Warrants'!
#HongKongStocks #HangSengIndex #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #NingdeTimes #03750 #TechnicalAnalysis$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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