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Has the rebound opportunity arrived? Hong Kong stocks welcome a strong start in May
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Mar 9 10:13

After the tech index rebounded from oversold levels, it fell into volatility again; key support seen at 4725 points

Last Friday (March 6), $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
The index closed at 4947.5 points, surging 3.15% in a single day, showing clear signs of a rebound. Technically, the current index is in a very clear range-bound trading scenario: The closing price of the technology index remains below the MA10 (5060.3 points), MA30 (5389.31 points), and MA60 (5513.23 points), indicating that the mid-term moving average resistance still exists. However, the RSI has dropped to 26, entering the oversold zone, supported by a strong 'Strong Buy' composite signal with an intensity of 12, suggesting that the short-term rebound momentum has solid technical support.
Last Friday (March 6), $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The index closed at 4947.5 points for the day, surging 3.15% in a single day, showing clear signs of a rebound. From a technical perspective, the current index is in a very clear range-bound trading environment: the closing price of the tech index remains below MA10 (5060.3 points), MA30 (5389.31 points), and MA60 (5513.23 points), indicating that medium-term moving average resistance still exists. However, the RSI has dropped to 26, entering the oversold zone, combined with a strong 'powerful buy' composite signal of 12, suggesting solid technical grounds for short-term rebound momentum. Sector performance: Clear signs of oversold recovery: The tech sector exhibited a pattern of 'broad-based gains with divergence,' further confirming the oversold nature of the rally last Friday (March 6): Top performers: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Surged 9.95% in a single day, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ Rose sharply by 5.23%, becoming the main driver of the sector; Individual underperformers: $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Dropped against the market trend by 4.46%, making it one of the few stocks in the sector that closed in the red. From a technical perspective, the RSI indicators of most stocks are in the oversold region below 35. Among them, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ the RSI is only at 21, $KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$ RSI at 24,
Sector stock performance: Clear signs of oversold recovery:
The tech sector exhibited a 'general rise with differentiation' pattern, further confirming the oversold nature of the rally last Friday (March 6):
Top-performing stocks: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ surged 9.95% in a single day, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ Surged 5.23%, becoming the main driving force of the sector;
Individual stocks weakened: $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Dropped against the trend by 4.46%, being one of the few green stocks in the sector.
From a technical perspective, the RSI indicators of most stocks are below 35, indicating an oversold region. Among them, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ RSI is only 21, $KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$ RSI 24, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ RSI 25, all in extremely oversold conditions. Notably, Alibaba and Kingsoft Software's comprehensive technical indicators both signal 'strong buy', with intensities reaching 16 and 13 respectively, making them the stocks with the strongest technical rebound demand in the sector.
Overall, last Friday’s tech stock rally was a typical strong technical rebound within a downtrend, rather than a clear trend reversal.
Although the rebound was relatively strong, except for a few stocks, most remain below medium-term moving averages such as MA30 and MA60. For this, subsequent operations can focus on two key observation points: whether the stock price can effectively break through and stabilize above the short-term MA10; and whether trading volume continues to increase during the rebound. Until these conditions are met, it is recommended to view the current market from a range-bound fluctuation perspective.
As of 10 AM today (September 9), the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) latest stands at 4808 points, showing a temporary 2.87% pullback. The first support level for HSTECH is seen at 4725 points, with the second major support at 4499 points; the first resistance level is seen at 5239 points, and the second resistance level at 5565 points.
Review and Selection of Warrant and Bull/Bear Products
(1) Review of Previous Products
Reviewing the tech index-related warrant and bull/bear products recommended on March 2, following the rebound of the tech index on March 6 and prior adjustments, the performance of these products was impressive: $SG#HSTECRP2812B.P (58369.HK)$ Gains of 20% in two days, $MS#HSTECRP2812D.P (59217.HK)$ A 21% increase two days later, $JPHSTEC@EP2609A.P (24681.HK)$ 、 $UBHSTEC@EP2609A.P (24592.HK)$ with increases of 12% and 15%, respectively, matching the underlying stock’s decline of 3.20% at the time, achieving the expected returns.
Last Friday (March 6), $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The index closed at 4947.5 points for the day, surging 3.15% in a single day, showing clear signs of a rebound. From a technical perspective, the current index is in a very clear range-bound trading environment: the closing price of the tech index remains below MA10 (5060.3 points), MA30 (5389.31 points), and MA60 (5513.23 points), indicating that medium-term moving average resistance still exists. However, the RSI has dropped to 26, entering the oversold zone, combined with a strong 'powerful buy' composite signal of 12, suggesting solid technical grounds for short-term rebound momentum. Sector performance: Clear signs of oversold recovery: The tech sector exhibited a pattern of 'broad-based gains with divergence,' further confirming the oversold nature of the rally last Friday (March 6): Top performers: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Surged 9.95% in a single day, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ Rose sharply by 5.23%, becoming the main driver of the sector; Individual underperformers: $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Dropped against the market trend by 4.46%, making it one of the few stocks in the sector that closed in the red. From a technical perspective, the RSI indicators of most stocks are in the oversold region below 35. Among them, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ the RSI is only at 21, $KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$ RSI at 24,
(II) Warrant Picks
Based on the trend of the tech index and technical signals, we have selected two warrant products suitable for the current market conditions, focusing on reasonable leverage and premium levels. Investors are reminded to be mindful of risks in derivatives trading and manage their positions appropriately:
1. $SG#HSTECRC2609B.C (67195.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 13.4, recovery price of 4700; key features include high actual leverage and low premium, making it suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term rebound continuation in the tech index.
2. $HS#HSTECRC2609D.C (64486.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 14.1, recovery price of 4700; key features include the lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage, offering excellent value, making it ideal for investors seeking stable leveraged returns.
Last Friday (March 6), $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The index closed at 4947.5 points for the day, surging 3.15% in a single day, showing clear signs of a rebound. From a technical perspective, the current index is in a very clear range-bound trading environment: the closing price of the tech index remains below MA10 (5060.3 points), MA30 (5389.31 points), and MA60 (5513.23 points), indicating that medium-term moving average resistance still exists. However, the RSI has dropped to 26, entering the oversold zone, combined with a strong 'powerful buy' composite signal of 12, suggesting solid technical grounds for short-term rebound momentum. Sector performance: Clear signs of oversold recovery: The tech sector exhibited a pattern of 'broad-based gains with divergence,' further confirming the oversold nature of the rally last Friday (March 6): Top performers: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Surged 9.95% in a single day, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ Rose sharply by 5.23%, becoming the main driver of the sector; Individual underperformers: $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Dropped against the market trend by 4.46%, making it one of the few stocks in the sector that closed in the red. From a technical perspective, the RSI indicators of most stocks are in the oversold region below 35. Among them, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ the RSI is only at 21, $KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$ RSI at 24,
Last Friday (March 6), $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The index closed at 4947.5 points for the day, surging 3.15% in a single day, showing clear signs of a rebound. From a technical perspective, the current index is in a very clear range-bound trading environment: the closing price of the tech index remains below MA10 (5060.3 points), MA30 (5389.31 points), and MA60 (5513.23 points), indicating that medium-term moving average resistance still exists. However, the RSI has dropped to 26, entering the oversold zone, combined with a strong 'powerful buy' composite signal of 12, suggesting solid technical grounds for short-term rebound momentum. Sector performance: Clear signs of oversold recovery: The tech sector exhibited a pattern of 'broad-based gains with divergence,' further confirming the oversold nature of the rally last Friday (March 6): Top performers: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Surged 9.95% in a single day, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ Rose sharply by 5.23%, becoming the main driver of the sector; Individual underperformers: $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Dropped against the market trend by 4.46%, making it one of the few stocks in the sector that closed in the red. From a technical perspective, the RSI indicators of most stocks are in the oversold region below 35. Among them, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ the RSI is only at 21, $KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$ RSI at 24,
Risk Warning:Investors should remain rational, avoid blindly chasing highs, and focus on two key factors: whether trading volume can continue to increase and whether stock prices can effectively break through short-term moving average resistance. Derivatives investments require caution, and product selection should align with one's risk tolerance.
If you are optimistic about the rebound of the tech index around the 4725-point level, which would you choose:
A. Buy Societe Generale Bull Certificate (67195) to bet on the rebound.
B. Buy HSBC Bull Certificate (64486) for stability.
C. Short bearish warrants/put warrants, following the downward trend.
Feel free to share your insights in the comments section.
For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants'!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #TechStocks #TechIndex #TechnicalAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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