Trip.Com's annual net profit surged by 95%, with its stock price rebounding strongly by 7% to reclaim the 10-day moving average

$TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ Trip.Com Group (09961.HK) has recently shown a strong rebound in its stock price trend, becoming a market focus. As of March 6, 2026, Trip.Com closed at HKD 418.8, surging by 7.38%. The intraday high reached HKD 420, successfully reclaiming the 10-day moving average (HKD 405.46) and approaching the HKD 420 level.

From a technical analysis perspective, Trip.Com's stock price had been under continuous pressure, retreating from its early-year high. Today’s strong rebound allowed it to reclaim some lost ground. According to technical data as of March 6, the closing price of HKD 417.4 brought the stock back above the 10-day moving average, though it remains below the 30-day moving average (HKD 443.54) and the 60-day moving average (HKD 499.68), indicating that the medium-term downtrend has not yet reversed. In terms of key levels, Trip.Com’s first support is around HKD 395, close to the late-February pullback low. A more critical second support lies at HKD 382, equivalent to the lower boundary of the consolidation range in late January. If the stock can hold its current position and move upward, the first resistance will be seen at HKD 441, near the 30-day moving average. Upon a successful breakout, the next resistance will target HKD 463.

Notably, as of March 6, the summary signal from technical indicators is 'Buy,' with a total of nine buy signals, reflecting brewing momentum for a short-term rebound. Several oscillation indicators show 'Neutral' signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35, on the edge of the oversold region, while the Stochastic Oscillator issues a buy signal, and the CCI indicator shows neutrality. Meanwhile, trend-following indicators like the Bull/Bear Power Indicator suggest buying, but Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicate selling, and the Bollinger Bands also signal selling. The Rate of Change (ROC) indicator highlights a 'severely oversold, potential bottom formation, buy' strong signal. Overall, current technical signals present an 'oversold rebound play' pattern, and investors need to closely monitor the stock’s performance at the psychological level of HKD 420 and the resistance level of HKD 441.

In terms of market news, Trip.Com has recently seen a concentration of positive factors, providing strong catalysts for its stock price. On the earnings front, Trip.Com Group announced its full-year 2025 results, with net revenue reaching RMB 62.4 billion, up 17% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders amounted to RMB 33.294 billion, a year-over-year increase of 95.08%, showing impressive performance. Guotou Securities issued a research report maintaining a 'Buy' rating for Trip.Com, noting that Q4 results slightly exceeded expectations, with international business contributing 40% of total revenue in 2025. Management emphasized investment in international operations and AI. The firm assigned a 16x P/E ratio valuation for 2026, slightly lowering the target price to HKD 541. Sector-wise, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks generally recovered today, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 3.7% in half a day, creating a favorable market atmosphere for Trip.Com.

In reviewing warrant products, the two Trip.Com-related put warrants mentioned on March 2, 2026, showed significant performance over the following two trading days (as of March 4). During this period, Trip.Com’s stock fell by 1.68%, while related bearish products recorded substantial gains: Morgan Put Warrant (16067) rose by 10%, and UBS Group Put Warrant (16196) increased by 6%.

#Learn Warrants and Bull/Bear Certificates with Jenny# Key Analysis: The "Street Inventory" of Warrants

In the product terms of warrants, there is an important indicator reflecting market capital flow, which is the "street inventory." Street inventory refers to the number of warrants that have been bought and held by investors but not yet repurchased and canceled by the issuer. It is usually displayed as a percentage of the total issuance of the product. A higher street inventory indicates more investors holding the product, with concentrated market sentiment; a lower street inventory suggests that the product is mainly held by the issuer, providing higher price stability. For example, in the case of the BOC Call Warrant (24905) recommended in this article, its street inventory is only 0.4%, indicating an extremely low level. This reflects that the product has not attracted significant retail capital inflow, and the issuer's ability to control the market remains strong, suggesting that the product’s price should be able to follow the underlying stock movement more stably. When analyzing street inventory, investors can combine key support and resistance levels of the underlying stock: if the call warrant’s street inventory moderately increases when the stock price breaks through resistance levels, it can be considered a positive signal; if the street inventory is too high (e.g., over 50%), one needs to be cautious about the impact of profit-taking pressure on the product's price.

With Trip.Com's current share price at HKD 417.4, combined with the above-mentioned support levels of HKD 395 and HKD 382, as well as resistance levels at HKD 441 and HKD 463, investors can select suitable warrant and bull/bear certificate products based on their own views.

For investors optimistic about Trip.Com extending its rebound and breaking through the resistance level of HKD 441 or even testing HKD 463, two call warrant products are worth considering. The first is the BOC Call Warrant (24905). $BI-TRIP@EC2607B.C (24905.HK)$ Its exercise price is HKD 531.38, offering approximately 5.16x leverage, implied volatility of 59.92%, and a street inventory of just 0.4%. The feature of this product lies in the reputable BOC International as the issuer, making it suitable for investors seeking stable deployment. Another option is the Citi Call Warrant (24747). $CI-TRIP@EC2607A.C (24747.HK)$ With an exercise price of HKD 518, around 6.03x leverage, a premium of 28.46%, and implied volatility of 47.95%, this warrant offers higher leverage and relatively lower implied volatility, effectively reducing volatility risk. The exercise prices of these two products, HKD 518 and HKD 531.38, are approximately 24% to 27% out-of-the-money compared to the current stock price and maintain some distance from the second resistance level of HKD 463. These products are suitable for more aggressive investors expecting the stock price to break through HKD 463 and further test the psychological barrier of HKD 500.

For investors who are bearish on Trip.Com’s outlook and believe the stock price will be capped by the resistance level of HKD 441 or even retreat to test support levels, two put warrant products are worth noting. The first is the Citi Put Warrant (17431). $CT-TRIP@EP2605A.P (17431.HK)$ Its exercise price is HKD 400.18, with 6.1x leverage. The advantage of this product is its lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, making it ideal for cost-effective bearish strategies. Another choice is the J.P. Morgan Put Warrant (15878). $JP-TRIP@EP2605A.P (15878.HK)$ Its exercise price is HKD 400, with 5.8x leverage. This product offers the highest leverage and the lowest implied volatility, achieving a balance between leverage and cost. When choosing put warrants, note that the exercise price of HKD 400 is slightly below the current stock price, making it a slightly out-of-the-money product. If the stock price falls below the support level of HKD 395, such products will perform more ideally. From the review of warrant products, the put warrants deployed on March 2 recorded gains of 6% to 10% during the underlying stock’s decline, demonstrating the hedging function of put warrants.

Interactive Questions:

Dear readers, do you think Trip.Com (09961) will successfully break through the HKD 420 mark in the short term and further test the resistance level of HKD 441?

A) Yes, benefiting from the delisting of price adjustment tools and strong earnings support, the rebound momentum will continue.

B) No, heavy resistance at HKD 441, consolidation needed with a retest of the support level at HKD 395.

Feel free to share your views in the comment section!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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