Earnings boost! Shares of JD.com-related companies surge across the board

港股窩輪Jenny

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JD.com surged over 7% after earnings, is this a technical rebound or a trend reversal?

Following the earnings announcement, the stock staged a strong rebound, with the share price surging over 7% in a single day, reaching an intraday high of 104.6 yuan. This surge in trading volume has preliminarily reversed the previous downtrend in the technical pattern. From the trend perspective, the current share price has successfully broken through the 10-day moving average (approximately 102.965 yuan). Although the medium- to long-term trend has not fully strengthened yet, clear signs of short-term stabilization have emerged.

Technical Indicators: Oversold Divergence Signals Accumulation of Rebound Momentum

A deeper observation of multiple key technical indicators shows that the stock price has accumulated sufficient rebound momentum at lower levels. The Stochastic Oscillator and RSI indicators both issued buy signals, with the RSI value in the oversold region at 27, typically indicating that short-term downward momentum has been excessively released. A more positive signal comes from the CCI indicator, which has exited the extremely oversold zone and turned upward. Combined with the Momentum Oscillation Indicator and VR Trading Volume Ratio Indicator, these also show buy signals, reflecting increasing buying power in the market and weakening selling pressure.

However, trend indicators such as ADX and MACD remain weak, showing that a complete reversal of the overall trend still needs time for confirmation. Nevertheless, conditions for a short-term technical recovery are now ripe.

Key Price Levels: Breaking Through the First Resistance Level Will Establish a Short-Term Uptrend

Based on the current technical structure, JD.com’s key support and resistance levels are becoming clearer:

Support level: The primary support is at 93.8 yuan; if it breaks, the second support at 87.4 yuan will be tested.

Resistance level: The primary upside resistance is at $103.7, near the 10-day moving average and the high point of the post-earnings rebound; if it can break through effectively, the next target will be around $111.5, coinciding with the key resistance area formed by the 60-day moving average and previous consolidation zone.

Fundamental Support: Consensus among investment banks resonates with technical signals

Investment banks maintain an overall positive rating on JD.com, forming a resonance with technical oversold signals: Jefferies maintains a target price of $190, the highest among four institutions, representing a potential increase of up to 96% from the previous closing price of $96.95; Daiwa raised its target price slightly by 0.58% from $171 to $172, maintaining a Buy rating; Nomura maintains a target price of $144 with a Buy rating, implying a similar upside potential of nearly 50%; Bernstein cut its target price by 10% from $150 to $135 but still maintains an 'Outperform' rating, offering nearly 40% upside from the current price. The average target price among the four institutions reaches $160.25, reflecting widespread recognition of JD.com’s valuation recovery potential.

Derivatives Market Fund Positioning Overview

Call/Put Warrant Market

The capital deployment in the call warrant market is highly concentrated, with the top two exercise price ranges accounting for over 70% combined: the 118-119 yuan range has the highest open interest at 65.06%, followed by the 126-127 yuan range at 5.91%, with all other ranges below 5%. The most actively traded products in the 118-119 yuan range have an average out-of-the-money level of 22.6%, qualifying as moderately out-of-the-money call warrants, with an actual leverage of about 8.2 times, a hedge ratio of 21%, and an average implied volatility of 44.7%. These generally have around 3.5 months remaining until expiration (concentrated on June 23, 2026), with a relatively moderate time decay, making them suitable for medium-term rebound plays.

For put warrants, open interest is also highly concentrated, with the 106-107 yuan range accounting for 62.77%, and the 96-97 yuan range at 0.33%, with both ranges combined exceeding 63%. The most actively traded products in the 106-107 yuan range have an average in-the-money level of 9.6%, an actual leverage of about 4.8 times, a hedge ratio of -78%, and an average implied volatility of 37.2%. These generally have around 1.5 months remaining until expiration (concentrated in mid-April 2026), with relatively faster time decay, making them more suitable for short-term pullback speculation or hedging portfolio risk.

Bull/Bear Certificate Market

Bull certificate capital deployment is also concentrated, with the top two recovery price ranges accounting for over 90% combined: the 85-86 yuan range has the highest open interest at 77.59%, followed by the 93-95 yuan range at 13.23%. The most actively traded products in the 85-86 yuan range have an average recovery distance of 12.1% and an average actual leverage of about 6.9 times, making them suitable for medium-term rebound plays.

For bear certificates, the concentration of open interest is evident, with the 135-140 yuan range accounting for 4.51%, and the 123-125 yuan range at 0.64%, with both ranges combined exceeding 5%. The most actively traded products in the 115-120 yuan range have an average recovery distance of 16.81%, making them suitable for short-term hedging or playing medium-term adjustments.

Featured Product Recommendations

Bullish Products (Call Warrants/Bull Certificates)

$UBJDCOM@EC2606A.C (22903.HK)$ (Medium-Term Aggressive Type)

Key Terms: Exercise Price 118.98 yuan, Expiration Date June 23, 2026, approximately 3.5 months remaining, Actual Leverage 7.9 times, Open Interest 0.89%

Recommendation rationale: The product from a top-tier issuer has strong price stability. A 22.7% out-of-the-money range falls within the moderate out-of-the-money interval, providing sufficient leverage flexibility without losing profit potential due to minor stock price fluctuations; extremely low street volume eliminates the risk of large fund inflows or outflows affecting the price. The actual leverage of 7.9 times is at an upper-mid level among similar products.

Suitable scenario: Short-term traders who expect JD.com to rebound by 15%-25% within the next three months and wish to use a small amount of capital for high-leverage returns.

$CIJDCOM@EC2609A.C (26504.HK)$ (Close-to-price steady type)

Core terms: Strike price 108.88 yuan, expiry date September 28, 2026, approximately 6.5 months remaining, actual leverage 5.1 times, street volume share 0%

Recommendation rationale: The 12.3% out-of-the-money range is the closest to the current price among similar products, presenting the lowest difficulty in achieving profitability. As long as JD.com's stock price rebounds by more than 12%, it will achieve in-the-money gains. The 5.1 times actual leverage balances return elasticity with volatility stability. The 6.5-month maturity period is suitable for medium-term positioning. There are almost no comparable close-to-price call warrants currently, offering excellent cost-performance.

Suitable scenario: Conservative investors who believe that JD.com's current price is near the bottom and want to position themselves in low-risk, high-probability short-to-medium-term rebound opportunities.

$SG#JDCOMRC2611B.C (54200.HK)$ (Medium-short term steady type)

Core terms: Knock-in price 86.8 yuan, knock-in distance 19.58%, actual leverage 5.47 times, street volume share 5.43%. Recommendation rationale: A knock-in distance of around 20% provides higher safety. JD.com’s stock price would need to drop nearly 20% to trigger forced knock-in, significantly reducing the risk of unexpected knock-ins. The 5.47 times actual leverage balances return elasticity with volatility stability. Street volume is at a reasonable level, ensuring ample liquidity and no risk of market manipulation.

Suitable scenario: Conservative investors who believe JD.com's current price is near the bottom and wish to position themselves for medium-term rebound opportunities while avoiding excessive knock-in risks.

$HS#JDCOMRC2612F.C (61566.HK)$ (Short-term speculative type)

Key Terms: Reclaim price at 94 yuan, reclaim distance of 10.67%, leverage of 8.76x, street holdings account for 17%

Recommendation: A 10% reclaim distance suits investors targeting support levels; the actual leverage of 8.76x is among the highest for products with a similar reclaim distance. The nearly 10-month time to maturity supports both short-term speculation and medium-term positioning, while street holdings are within a reasonable range and liquidity is sufficient.

Applicable Scenario: Suitable for balanced investors who have confirmed JD.com's 94-yuan support level as effective, and wish to balance short-term high volatility with medium-term positioning flexibility.

Bearish/Hedging Products (Put Warrants/Bear Certificates)

$BIJDCOM@EP2609A.P (26416.HK)$ (Mid- to Long-Term Hedging Type)

Key Terms: Exercise price at 96.83 yuan, leverage of 3.5x, street holdings account for 0.04%

Recommendation: Stable pricing with ample liquidity; an out-of-the-money margin of just 0.1% is almost on par with current prices, creating a very low profit threshold—profits can be gained immediately if JD.com’s stock price declines. With relatively stable fluctuations from 3.5x actual leverage, there’s no excessive risk of large net value swings. The approximately 7-month time to maturity makes it suitable for long-term hedging, with extremely low street holdings minimizing trading costs.

Applicable Scenario: Suitable for investors holding JD.com shares who need long-term hedging against downside risks or those expecting further downward movement in JD.com’s mid-term share price.

$HUJDCOM@EP2606B.P (22446.HK)$ (Mid-Short Term Speculative Type)

Key Terms: Exercise price at 106.08 yuan, expiration date on June 22, 2026, with approximately 3.5 months remaining, actual leverage of 4.2x, street holdings account for 0.03%

Recommendation rationale: A 9.4% in-the-money level means the product currently has intrinsic value, eliminating concerns about time decay leading to "correct directional view but no profit." A 4.2x actual leverage is relatively high for medium-term put warrants, offering substantial short-term trading profit potential. The 3.5-month maturity is sufficient to cover quarterly earnings catalyst windows, with extremely low street inventory and minimal trading slippage.

Applicable scenario: Aggressive traders who expect a 10%-15% pullback in JD.com within the next 1-3 months and wish to use small capital to bet on short-term downside gains.

$UB#JDCOMRP2812B.P (63366.HK)$ (Short-term aggressive type)

Key terms: Redemption price of 115 yuan, redemption distance of 9.56%, actual leverage of 6.76x, street inventory ratio of 1.89%. Recommendation rationale: The actual leverage is among the highest in current market bear products, offering substantial short-term trading profit elasticity for downside bets; with over two years to maturity, there's almost no time decay pressure, very low street inventory, and low transaction costs.

Applicable scenario: Aggressive traders who believe JD.com will struggle to break through the resistance level of 115 yuan in the short term and wish to bet on a quarterly-level pullback.

$UB#JDCOMRP2808B.P (56284.HK)$ (Medium-short term steady type)

Key terms: Redemption price of 124 yuan, redemption distance of 15.89%, actual leverage of 3.1x, street inventory ratio of 0.61%.

Recommendation rationale: A redemption distance of nearly 16% offers extremely high safety, making it unlikely to trigger redemption even if JD.com experiences a temporary rebound; 3.1x actual leverage ensures more stable fluctuations without excessive net value volatility risk, while the over two-year maturity suits medium to long-term hedging positions.

Applicable scenario: Conservative investors holding JD.com shares needing medium to long-term hedging against pullback risks or those expecting JD.com’s stock price to remain weak in the mid-term.

Do you think JD.com's current rebound can break through the 60-day moving average at 110 yuan, or is it just a technical pullback before continuing to test new lows? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis presented may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using additional sources, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'HK Stock Warrants'!

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