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港股窩輪Jenny
commented on a stock · Mar 6 11:04

Zijin Mining Warrants Review: JPMorgan bear contracts surged 36%, downside tools performed strongly

Zijin Mining (02899.HK) has recently exhibited a pattern of sharp rise followed by pullback, becoming a market focus. As of March 5, 2026, Zijin Mining closed at HKD 40.86, down 2.58% for the day, with an intraday low of HKD 40.51, retreating close to the psychological threshold of HKD 40. Previously, the stock price had tested the upper Bollinger Band, after which it retreated, reflecting its high volatility. In fact, over the past five trading days, the stock's volatility reached approximately 15.5%, indicating significant fluctuations. As of the morning session on March 6, Zijin Mining in the Hong Kong market was trading at HKD 40.4, down 1.13%, continuing its downward trend.
From a technical analysis perspective, Zijin Mining’s share price has pulled back from the peak seen in late February and is testing the psychological level of HKD 40. Based on technical data as of March 5, the first support level for Zijin Mining is around HKD 38.7, near the low point of the late February correction; the more critical second support level lies at HKD 37, equivalent to the top of the consolidation range observed in early February. If the stock can hold steady and move upward, the first resistance level will be seen at HKD 44.1, which corresponds to the top of the previous dense trading range; if it successfully breaks through, the next resistance level will be at HKD 46.7. Overall, the current technical signals present a 'short-covering rebound' scenario, and investors need to closely monitor the performance of the share price at the psychological support of HKD 40 and the resistance level of HKD 44.1.
Regarding market news, Zijin Mining has experienced mixed positive and negative factors recently, contributing to stock price volatility. On the positive side, JPMorgan issued a report maintaining its bullish view on gold and copper stocks, recommending buying quality mining stocks on dips, with Zijin Mining being their top pick during pullbacks. Bank of America also explicitly listed Zijin Mining as one of the “core recommendations” in the metals sector of the Chinese stock market, emphasizing its strong bull stance on gold, copper, and aluminum markets. Brokerage statistics show that Zijin Mining was recommended by eight brokerages in March, ranking first among the selected stocks, with the recommendation logic focusing on “certainty of profit recovery” and its position as a global mining leader. Data shows that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is expected to increase by 59%-62%, mainly due to increased mineral production and rising metal prices. However, negative factors should not be overlooked; the precious metals sector continues to retreat, with Zijin Mining following the sector’s weakness. In terms of capital flow, the stock has seen overall outflows over the past five days, below industry averages, with total outflows amounting to approximately HKD 4.65 billion. Additionally, during three consecutive days of decline, the cumulative drop reached 7.58%, resulting in floating losses of about HKD 34.68 million for 25 funds under China Merchants Fund. Market analysis suggests that short-term adjustments are primarily driven by capital flow and sentiment, but the medium-to-long-term value remains widely recognized by institutions, with Morgan Stanley assigning a target price of HKD 56.
March 5th [HKEX Podcast] - Hang Seng Index, CATL, Huaneng Power, JD.com, Baidu, Zijin Mining
Reviewing the views from the [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] on March 5, the program noted that Zijin Mining’s stock price had been highly volatile, with the stock's volatility reaching approximately 15.5% over the past five trading days, indicating significant fluctuations. At that time, the stock closed at HKD 40.86, retreating close to the psychological threshold of HKD 40. Technical signals were mostly neutral, with buy and sell signals being roughly equal, leading to an overall neutral conclusion. The program particularly reminded investors that if purchasing call warrants with an exercise price above HKD 44, they need to pay extra attention because Zijin Mining’s first resistance level is around HKD 44.1. Only by breaking through this level does the stock have the potential to further test HKD 46. In other words, investors holding call warrants with exercise prices of HKD 46 or even HKD 48 must recognize that the stock price needs to surpass the important level of HKD 44.1 before reaching the exercise price, which may take some time and is not easily achievable in the short term. This view aligns well with the current technical analysis resistance levels of HKD 44.1 and HKD 46.7, providing valuable reference for investors.
Regarding the review of warrant products, multiple derivatives related to Zijin Mining mentioned on March 3, 2026, recorded significant performance in the subsequent two trading days (as of March 5). During this period, Zijin Mining's underlying stock fell by 5.46%, while related bearish products saw notable gains: JPMorgan put warrants (25363) $JPZIJIN@EP2706A.P (25363.HK)$ Up 9%, JPMorgan bear certificate (56963) stood out with a 36% increase.
Zijin Mining (02899.HK) has recently exhibited a pattern of sharp rise followed by pullback, becoming a market focus. As of March 5, 2026, Zijin Mining closed at HKD 40.86, down 2.58% for the day, with an intraday low of HKD 40.51, retreating close to the psychological threshold of HKD 40. Previously, the stock price had tested the upper Bollinger Band, after which it retreated, reflecting its high volatility. In fact, over the past five trading days, the stock's volatility reached approximately 15.5%, indicating significant fluctuations. As of the morning session on March 6, Zijin Mining in the Hong Kong market was trading at HKD 40.4, down 1.13%, continuing its downward trend. From a technical analysis perspective, Zijin Mining’s share price has pulled back from the peak seen in late February and is testing the psychological level of HKD 40. Based on technical data as of March 5, the first support level for Zijin Mining is around HKD 38.7, near the low point of the late February correction; the more critical second support level lies at HKD 37, equivalent to the top of the consolidation range observed in early February. If the stock can hold steady and move upward, the first resistance level will be seen at HKD 44.1, which corresponds to the top of the previous dense trading range; if it successfully breaks through, the next resistance level will be at HKD 46.7. Overall, the current technical signals present a 'short-covering rebound' scenario, and investors need to closely monitor the performance of the share price at the psychological support of HKD 40 and the resistance level of HKD 44.1. In terms of market news, Zijin Mining has experienced mixed positive and negative factors recently, contributing to stock price volatility. On the positive side...
Currently, Zijin Mining's share price is at 40.86 yuan. Considering the support levels of 38.7 yuan and 37 yuan, as well as resistance levels of 44.1 yuan and 46.7 yuan, investors can choose suitable warrant and bull/bear certificate products based on their own perspectives.
For investors who are optimistic that Zijin Mining can hold steady above the 40-yuan mark and rebound upwards, two call warrant products can be considered: UBS call warrant (25834). $UBZIJIN@EC2612A.C (25834.HK)$ The exercise price is 46.12 yuan, offering about 3.2 times leverage. The key feature of this product is the highest leverage with low implied volatility, making it suitable for investors seeking leverage while aiming to reduce volatility risk. Another option is HSBC call warrant (25963), also with an exercise price of 46.12 yuan and leverage of about 3.3 times. This warrant offers ideal leverage and implied volatility, striking a balance between leverage and cost. The exercise price for both products is 46.12 yuan, which represents an out-of-the-money range of approximately 13% based on the current share price, aligning with the view mentioned in the Hong Kong stock podcast that “a breakthrough above 44.1 yuan is needed to test 46 yuan.” These products are suitable for more aggressive investors who expect the share price to break through 44.1 yuan and further test the resistance level of 46.7 yuan.
For investors who are bearish on Zijin Mining’s outlook and believe the share price will be capped at the 44.1-yuan resistance or even retreat to test support levels, JPMorgan put warrant (25363) can be considered. $JPZIJIN@EP2706A.P (25363.HK)$ The exercise price is 42.88 yuan, providing 1.5 times leverage, making it the product with the highest leverage. When choosing put warrants, note that the exercise price of 42.88 yuan is slightly higher than the current share price, making it a slightly in-the-money product. If the share price falls below the 38.7-yuan support level, such products would perform more ideally.
Zijin Mining (02899.HK) has recently exhibited a pattern of sharp rise followed by pullback, becoming a market focus. As of March 5, 2026, Zijin Mining closed at HKD 40.86, down 2.58% for the day, with an intraday low of HKD 40.51, retreating close to the psychological threshold of HKD 40. Previously, the stock price had tested the upper Bollinger Band, after which it retreated, reflecting its high volatility. In fact, over the past five trading days, the stock's volatility reached approximately 15.5%, indicating significant fluctuations. As of the morning session on March 6, Zijin Mining in the Hong Kong market was trading at HKD 40.4, down 1.13%, continuing its downward trend. From a technical analysis perspective, Zijin Mining’s share price has pulled back from the peak seen in late February and is testing the psychological level of HKD 40. Based on technical data as of March 5, the first support level for Zijin Mining is around HKD 38.7, near the low point of the late February correction; the more critical second support level lies at HKD 37, equivalent to the top of the consolidation range observed in early February. If the stock can hold steady and move upward, the first resistance level will be seen at HKD 44.1, which corresponds to the top of the previous dense trading range; if it successfully breaks through, the next resistance level will be at HKD 46.7. Overall, the current technical signals present a 'short-covering rebound' scenario, and investors need to closely monitor the performance of the share price at the psychological support of HKD 40 and the resistance level of HKD 44.1. In terms of market news, Zijin Mining has experienced mixed positive and negative factors recently, contributing to stock price volatility. On the positive side...
For bullish investors considering bull certificates, UBS bull certificate (58740) can be an option. $UB#ZIJINRC2610H.C (58740.HK)$ The recovery price is 35 yuan, providing actual leverage of 6.1 times. This product has the lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage. Another choice is Bank of China bull certificate (66030). $BI#ZIJINRC2612A.C (66030.HK)$ The recovery price is 35 yuan, actual leverage is 6 times, with high actual leverage and low premium. When selecting bull certificates, ensure that the recovery price is below the support levels of 38.7 yuan and 37 yuan to provide sufficient safety buffer. A recovery price of 35 yuan is well below both support levels, providing ample margin of safety. For bearish investors, UBS bear certificate (57434) can be considered, with a recovery price of 47.5 yuan, actual leverage of 6.2 times, and the lowest premium. When choosing bear certificates, make sure the recovery price is above the resistance levels of 44.1 yuan and 46.7 yuan. A recovery price of 47.5 yuan is slightly above the second resistance level, making it a close-range deployment choice that offers ideal leverage without reducing sensitivity due to a recovery price being too far away.
Interactive Questions:
Dear readers, do you think Zijin Mining (02899) can hold steady above the 40-yuan mark in the short term and rebound upwards?
A) Yes, supported by favorable institutional outlook and metal price strength, it will test the resistance level at HKD 44.1.
B) No, continuous capital outflows and sector correction require testing the support levels at HKD 38.7 or even HKD 37.
Feel free to share your views in the comment section!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
#Zijin Mining #02899 #HongKongStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportResistanceLevels #Warrants #BullBearCertificates #CallOptions #PutOptions #ImpliedVolatility #HongKongWarrantsJenny
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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