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港股窩輪Jenny
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Selloff After Earnings Hits Monthly Low + Investment Banks Unanimously Bullish: Is Now the Time to Buy Bilibili?

$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$
The stock price experienced significant selling pressure after the earnings announcement, plunging over 5% intraday today, hitting a low of HKD 198.4 and reaching a one-month low.
From a technical perspective, the stock price has broken below all short-term moving averages: the 10-day moving average (HKD 220.8), the 30-day moving average (HKD 242.65), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 225.96) have all been breached, indicating clear technical weakness. The stock is currently in a typical short-term downtrend channel.
However, short-term technical indicators are beginning to show signs of recovery. Multiple oscillators are signaling oversold conditions simultaneously: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, which, while not in extreme oversold territory, has entered a potential rebound observation zone. The Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R both indicate that prices are at short-term relative lows. More notably, the CCI indicator and the Bull/Bear Power indicator have both issued 'severely oversold, possible bottoming' buy signals. The Momentum Oscillator and Rate of Change indicator have also turned neutral, suggesting that downward momentum is gradually weakening. Overall, technical indicators suggest a 'strong buy,' with signal strength reaching 12, creating a notable divergence from the current weak price action.
It is important to note that medium-term trend signals have not reversed: trend indicators such as MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bollinger Bands still show sell signals. The ADX indicator remains neutral, indicating that the intensity of the current downtrend has not reached its peak, leaving medium-term trends uncertain.
In terms of key price levels, today's low of 198.4 yuan is already very close to the first support level at 199 yuan. Whether this level can hold is crucial; if it effectively breaks down, the stock price may further drop to the second support level at 176 yuan. The first resistance above is at 234 yuan, near the intersection of the 10-day and 60-day moving averages. If it can break through effectively, the stock could challenge the second resistance level at 265 yuan.
$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ The stock price experienced significant selling pressure after the earnings announcement, plunging over 5% intraday today, hitting a low of HKD 198.4 and reaching a one-month low. From a technical perspective, the stock price has broken below all short-term moving averages: the 10-day moving average (HKD 220.8), the 30-day moving average (HKD 242.65), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 225.96) have all been breached, indicating clear technical weakness. The stock is currently in a typical short-term downtrend channel. However, short-term technical indicators are beginning to show signs of recovery. Multiple oscillators are signaling oversold conditions simultaneously: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, which, while not in extreme oversold territory, has entered a potential rebound observation zone. The Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R both indicate that prices are at short-term relative lows. More notably, the CCI indicator and the Bull/Bear Power indicator have both issued 'severely oversold, possible bottoming' buy signals. The Momentum Oscillator and Rate of Change indicator have also turned neutral, suggesting that downward momentum is gradually weakening. Overall, technical indicators suggest a 'strong buy,' with signal strength reaching 12, creating a notable divergence from the current weak price action. It is important to note that medium-term trend signals have not reversed: trend indicators such as MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bollinger Bands still show sell signals. The ADX indicator remains neutral, indicating that the intensity of the current downtrend has not reached its peak, leaving medium-term trends uncertain...
$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ The stock price experienced significant selling pressure after the earnings announcement, plunging over 5% intraday today, hitting a low of HKD 198.4 and reaching a one-month low. From a technical perspective, the stock price has broken below all short-term moving averages: the 10-day moving average (HKD 220.8), the 30-day moving average (HKD 242.65), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 225.96) have all been breached, indicating clear technical weakness. The stock is currently in a typical short-term downtrend channel. However, short-term technical indicators are beginning to show signs of recovery. Multiple oscillators are signaling oversold conditions simultaneously: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, which, while not in extreme oversold territory, has entered a potential rebound observation zone. The Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R both indicate that prices are at short-term relative lows. More notably, the CCI indicator and the Bull/Bear Power indicator have both issued 'severely oversold, possible bottoming' buy signals. The Momentum Oscillator and Rate of Change indicator have also turned neutral, suggesting that downward momentum is gradually weakening. Overall, technical indicators suggest a 'strong buy,' with signal strength reaching 12, creating a notable divergence from the current weak price action. It is important to note that medium-term trend signals have not reversed: trend indicators such as MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bollinger Bands still show sell signals. The ADX indicator remains neutral, indicating that the intensity of the current downtrend has not reached its peak, leaving medium-term trends uncertain...
Notably, Bilibili received updated ratings from several leading international investment banks. UBS Group, Daiwa, and Jefferies all maintained a 'Buy' rating. Among them, UBS raised its target price to 291.6 yuan, offering a potential upside of nearly 38% from the current price. Daiwa also increased its target price, slightly by 2.04%, from 245 yuan to 250.00 yuan. Although Jefferies slightly lowered its target price by 3.37% to 258 yuan, it still indicates an upside potential of 22.5% compared to the previous closing price.
From the perspective of the trading structure in the warrant market, there are clear differences in capital deployment between call and put products, indirectly reflecting the current divergence between bulls and bears in the market.
Call warrant trading concentrated in the strike price range of 280-290 yuan, with an average out-of-the-money degree of 36.8%, categorized as moderately out-of-the-money products. They offer an actual leverage of 4.7 times, a hedge value of 30%, implied volatility of 64.88%, and generally have about 4.7 months remaining until expiry, with the latest expiration date being July 27, 2026. The time decay is relatively gradual, making them suitable for medium-term bullish strategies.
Put warrants were concentrated in the strike price range of 180-190 yuan, with an average out-of-the-money degree of 10.3%, actual leverage of 5.8 times, hedge value of -28%, and implied volatility of 59.29%. These generally have about 2 months left until expiry, with expiration dates concentrated around May 4, 2026. Time decay is faster, making them more suitable for short-term pullback speculation or hedging portfolio risk.
Product Highlights
If you expect a short-term rebound in Bilibili, you may consider $HU-BILI@EC2606B.C (23521.HK)$ , which offers approximately 4.8 times actual leverage with a strike price set at 239.99 yuan. The core advantage of this product is that it has the lowest premium level among similar strike-price call warrants currently available in the market, with relatively controllable holding costs.
If you are bearish on the outlook or need to hedge against the risk of long stock positions, you may consider $CI-BILI@EP2605A.P (22054.HK)$ , which offers about 5.8 times actual leverage, with a strike price of 188.88 yuan. It is currently the lowest-premium put warrant for Bilibili in the market, suitable for short-term trading needs.
$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ The stock price experienced significant selling pressure after the earnings announcement, plunging over 5% intraday today, hitting a low of HKD 198.4 and reaching a one-month low. From a technical perspective, the stock price has broken below all short-term moving averages: the 10-day moving average (HKD 220.8), the 30-day moving average (HKD 242.65), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 225.96) have all been breached, indicating clear technical weakness. The stock is currently in a typical short-term downtrend channel. However, short-term technical indicators are beginning to show signs of recovery. Multiple oscillators are signaling oversold conditions simultaneously: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, which, while not in extreme oversold territory, has entered a potential rebound observation zone. The Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R both indicate that prices are at short-term relative lows. More notably, the CCI indicator and the Bull/Bear Power indicator have both issued 'severely oversold, possible bottoming' buy signals. The Momentum Oscillator and Rate of Change indicator have also turned neutral, suggesting that downward momentum is gradually weakening. Overall, technical indicators suggest a 'strong buy,' with signal strength reaching 12, creating a notable divergence from the current weak price action. It is important to note that medium-term trend signals have not reversed: trend indicators such as MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bollinger Bands still show sell signals. The ADX indicator remains neutral, indicating that the intensity of the current downtrend has not reached its peak, leaving medium-term trends uncertain...
Do you think Bilibili's recent sharp decline is a short-term pullback or a mid-term trend reversal? At the current price level, would you choose to buy the dip or stay on the sidelines? Feel free to share your views in the comment section.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis presented may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using additional sources, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'HK Stock Warrants'!
#Hong Kong stocks #Hang Seng Index #Real-time analysis #Warrant picks #Warrant strategies #Derivatives hedging #HK Warrants by Jenny #Bilibili #09626 #Technical analysis $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Technology (LIST20840.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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