[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, NetEase, AIA, Chalco, SMIC - Post-market analysis on March 4

1. Hang Seng Index trend analysis: Investors hold divergent views; technical signals suggest buying as the dominant strategy

Simon: First, let's focus on today’s performance of the Hang Seng Index. The Hang Seng Index continued to show weakness today, closing at 25,249 points, and once dropped below the 25,000-point level during trading, hitting a low of 24,958 points. Market investors are divided in their opinions. Some bullish investors believe that after three consecutive days of declines, there may be a small rebound opportunity tomorrow, thus paying attention to bull certificates with a recovery price at 24,800 points. On the other hand, more cautious investors feel that the index must first stabilize above the 25,400-point level to confirm a strengthening trend, and until the trend becomes clear, they remain bearish and hold bear certificates. In the short term, market sentiment indeed appears pessimistic.

Based on the summary of technical signals, buy signals for the Hang Seng Index currently hold a slight advantage, with overall sentiment leaning bullish. Specific data shows nine buy signals versus five sell signals, with short-term technical indicators mainly favoring bullishness. However, investors should be reminded that while there are more buy signals, they do not yet indicate a strong buying signal. Investors adding to existing positions or opening new ones should keep this in mind.

For short-term investors considering deploying CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), here are the key technical support and resistance levels to assist in choosing products with appropriate strike prices. The current short-term support for the Hang Seng Index is around 24,600 points. If this level is breached, the market could test the next significant support at 23,700 points. Given the recent high volatility, investors should consider products with relatively distant strike prices when selecting bull contracts to reduce the risk of being forced to close out prematurely if the market moves favorably. For example, based on the support level, products with a strike price near 24,000 points can be considered. In the market, bull contracts with a strike price at 24,300 points have a leverage ratio of about 26-27 times; whereas those with strike prices at 24,200 or even 24,000 points offer leverage of approximately 22 times. While the leverage is slightly lower, these products provide a buffer of several hundred points, reducing the likelihood of being closed out. If the support at 24,600 points is unfortunately broken, the next support will be at 23,700 points, allowing investors to screen for suitable products accordingly.

On the resistance side, due to the recent large market fluctuations, the calculated short-term resistance level is around 26,200 points, which is about 1,000 points from the current price, offering investors a point of reference.

2. Xiaomi Group (01810.HK): Share price holds steady above HKD 32, rebound targets under focus

Simon: Xiaomi Group's share price has been on an overall downward trend since the beginning of the year. Today’s closing price (on the 4th) was exactly HKD 32, with intraday lows reaching HKD 31.2. Although there was a slight recovery today, the overall trend remains unchanged. Investors interested in taking positions are watching whether the stock can stabilize above HKD 32, and what the next resistance levels might be. From a technical analysis perspective, the first resistance level is approximately at HKD 34.4. If it breaks through this level, the next target would likely be around HKD 36.

In summary of the short-term technical signals, Xiaomi currently shows strong buy signals dominating, with 13 buy signals versus only 4 sell signals, indicating that buy signals are in the majority, which can serve as a reference. In the CBBC market, some investors continue holding bear contracts on Xiaomi. For those looking to follow, attention should be paid to selecting appropriate strike prices. Based on the resistance levels of HKD 34.4 and HKD 36, choosing bear contracts with a strike price around HKD 40 carries relatively low risk of early closure in the short term.

NetEase-S (09999.HK): Rising for two consecutive days, can the uptrend be confirmed?

Simon: Compared to the weak performance of the Hang Seng Index, NetEase's recent trend has been relatively stable with a slight rebound. Of course, from January until now, its cumulative stock price decline has been significant, and the recent rebound has only slightly eased the downward pressure. Today (April 4), NetEase closed at HKD 180.7, holding firmly above the HKD 180 level.

Following two consecutive days of gains, investors are paying attention to subsequent technical signals and upside targets. A summary of technical signals shows that NetEase is currently mildly bullish, with buy signals slightly outweighing sell signals—there are nine buy signals and six sell signals. However, the overall signal strength is weaker than Xiaomi’s and only indicates a preliminary buy signal, not yet strong. If the stock price continues upward, the first resistance level is around HKD 190.2. If it breaks through, it may retest the HKD 200 level and further aim for HKD 203.

AIA (01299.HK): Stock price approaching the lower Bollinger Band, the HKD 80 level becomes key for entry

Simon: AIA’s stock performance was poor today (April 4), with significant declines. The intraday low touched HKD 80, very close to the bottom of the daily Bollinger Band (around HKD 79.9). Reviewing February's trend, after touching the lower band, AIA's stock rebounded but encountered resistance at the middle line before falling again. Notably, AIA’s trading volume today increased compared to the past 5-7 trading days, which isn’t a positive sign in a downtrend.

With the stock price nearing the lower band, investors are watching short-term technical signals. Currently, AIA’s technical signals lean towards buying, with eight buy signals and five sell signals. Although there are more buy signals, they remain ordinary rather than strong. For investors looking to position at lower levels, the first support level is approximately HKD 77.8, and if it breaks below, the next support will be around HKD 74.5. Investors should closely monitor whether the stock price retraces to near HKD 77.8 or even HKD 74.5 before making decisions based on market conditions.

Aluminum Corporation of China (02600.HK): Strong breakout above the upper band, analysis of upside target

Simon: Aluminum Corporation of China has shown remarkable strength recently, closing today (April 4) at HKD 14.75, surpassing the top of the daily Bollinger Band. Alongside rising prices, trading volume has gradually increased, with further expansion observed today during the stock’s rise. Investors are focused on whether this momentum can continue and what the subsequent upside potential may be.

Based on resistance calculations, the first resistance level is approximately HKD 15.4, very close to the previous high of HKD 15.55 set on January 29. If it successfully breaks through HKD 15.4, the stock has a good chance to test the HKD 16.3 level, providing a reference point for investors.

6. SMIC (00981.HK): Stock price falls below the bottom of the Bollinger Band, where is the next support level?

Simon: SMIC's stock performance continues to disappoint. From the daily chart, the price fell from a high of HKD 80 and has quietly dropped near HKD 60. Today (April 4), the intraday low reached HKD 60.7, closing at HKD 60.25. Although it barely closed above HKD 60, the closing price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The market is concerned about where support might hold if the stock continues to fall.

The first support level for SMIC is currently around HKD 58.3. If this level is breached, the next target will be HKD 54.3. Investors can observe in stages; if the stock price continues to decline, it will likely test the area near HKD 58 first, followed by the HKD 54 level. As for whether it will further drop to the HKD 50 mark, it's too early to determine at this stage. Further analysis will depend on whether HKD 58.3 and HKD 54.3 can provide effective support.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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