Escalation in US-Iran tensions causes oil prices to spike | Will the rate cut script change? Major sector reshuffle! What’s next for Hong Kong and US stocks | #HongKongStocks #USStocks #Investment #Gold | 2026-03-03

### Summary of Sun Tzu's Key Discussion Points (March 4, 2026)

#### I. Core Market View: Geopolitics Drives Energy Sector as the New Main Trend

1. Geopolitical dominance in markets: Escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran triggers global market concerns over an energy crisis. The market situation has shifted from unclear to clear, with capital flowing heavily into energy-related sectors such as oil, chemicals, and natural gas. Other sectors (especially previously strong tech and semiconductor stocks) are generally under pressure.

2. "Energy Crisis" mindset: If the conflict persists, it may lead to increased inflation, affecting expectations for Fed rate cuts, and potentially triggering a 1970s-style energy crisis and risks of global economic stagflation. This could cause global stock markets (except A-shares) to face potential peak-and-decline risks.

3. Hang Seng Index technical breakdown: The index has fallen below the key range (27,180 - 26,380), with short-term support shifting lower to 25,780 points. If this level is breached, it will test 25,160 points—a dangerous situation. Hedging must be considered operationally, while paying close attention to the few strong sectors like petrochemicals.

4. Global stock markets under synchronized pressure:

* Korea Index (down 5.47%): Represents risk for memory chips (Samsung, SK Hynix); this sector may have peaked.

* Taiwan, Germany, Japan indices all experienced significant pullbacks.

* A-shares (SSE) remain relatively strong, but Hong Kong stocks did not follow suit.

* Nasdaq futures: Facing large-scale topping risk (lasting over 22 weeks); if confirmed to drop tonight, consequences will be severe.

5. Tech stocks have completely collapsed: Platform-based tech stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, etc., continue their downward trend, unaffected by geopolitical factors. However, the market has demonstrated through price action (decline) that these stocks are no longer favored. Investors should abandon subjective biases of 'no issues' and respect objective charts.

6. Oil stocks confirm long-term breakout: Oil prices (on a weekly chart) have broken through the downward trend line since 2022, confirming the transition from the first phase to the second phase (uptrend), marking an important turning point.

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### Stock Perspectives and Operational Suggestions

#### Strong Sectors (Oil, Chemicals, Energy-related)

| CNOOC (883$CNOOC (00883.HK)$ ) / Sinopec (386) / PetroChina (857) | Leaders in the energy sector, and the current market focus for the foreseeable future. | Should be closely monitored. |

| Sinopec Oilfield Service ($SINOPEC SSC (01033.HK)$ ) | Very strong performance; my grandson wanted to buy yesterday but couldn't execute the trade. | Belongs to chemical and oil stocks, showing strength; use hourly chart 'major range' or 10-day moving average to set profit targets. |

| Dazhong Utility ($DZUG (01635.HK)$ ) | Gas stock, driven by rising European natural gas prices, currently under heavy speculation. | Use 30-minute chart 'major range' or 10-day moving average to set profit targets. As the upward trend started from extremely low levels, it will take time to form a peak, making it relatively safe. |

| ENN Energy $ENN ENERGY (02688.HK)$ ) | Natural gas-related, showing a long-term breakout since 2021, with potential to be one of the best picks in the Hang Seng Index. | Sun Tzu will focus research on this as an important potential target for the year. |

| UCO (Oil ETF) | The oil sector is strong overall, and UCO is performing well. | Consider buying on pullbacks or use yesterday’s low as a stop-loss. |

| Huadian ($CHINA RES POWER (00836.HK)$ ) | Traditional utility stock with defensive characteristics, showing signs of accelerating upward movement. | Consider around 18.7 after 2-3 days of consolidation, with a defensive stop at 18.3. |

| PPA (Aerospace & Defense ETF) | Positive momentum in the defense sector. | Defensive stop at 180, further upside possible. |

| Nuclear energy-related (if no ticker available) | Also part of the energy sector, may see speculative interest. | If chosen, set a defensive stop at 7.8. |

#### Weak sectors (technology stocks, semiconductors, automobiles, etc. - should be avoided or approached with extreme caution)

| Tencent ($TENCENT (00700.HK)$ ) | Downward trend confirmed, 10-day MA acting as resistance for rebounds. | If holding, use today’s low of 513 as the final defensive stop, aiming for a rebound to 540 before exiting. |

| Alibaba ($BABA-W (09988.HK)$ ) | Has broken below the "iron bottom" of 141 yuan, with extremely weak momentum; distant support lies at 129.6 yuan. | If holding shares, use today's lowest level of 136 yuan as the final defense, aiming for a rebound to 141 yuan before exiting. |

| Meituan ($MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ | Downtrend continues, moving lower along the 10-day line. | Participation not recommended. |

| Xiaomi ($XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ | Weak momentum, each low point is lower than the previous one. | Participation not recommended. |

| Geely Auto ($GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ ) | Weak trend, likely to continue falling; auto stocks under pressure amid economic recession expectations. | If holding shares (e.g., at 17 yuan cost), it’s advised to cut losses and exit. |

| Ping An Insurance ($PING AN (02318.HK)$ ) | Showing signs of weakness. | If holding shares, consider exiting on a rebound to 48 yuan; last defense at 45.7 yuan. |

| China Telecom ($CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ ) | The stock shows weak momentum and has been sold off by investors. | Not suitable for attention. |

| CATL ($CATL (03750.HK)$ ) | Battery-related concepts are weak, not a current hotspot. | Even if there is support (e.g., at 4.82 yuan), it should be avoided. |

| Dongfang Electric ($DONGFANG ELEC (01072.HK)$ | Electrical stocks have sharply retraced with heavy trading volumes in the decline, resembling previous sharp downward movements. | Be cautious and pay attention to risks. |

| Beijing Energy Clean Energy ($JNCEC (00579.HK)$ ) | Poor performance. | Suggest exiting the position. |

| $CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07347.HK)$ / $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07709.HK)$ Related | The Korean index shows topping risks; memory chip stocks are the first to be affected. | Consider the Southern Two Times Short Samsung-related ETF to hedge against Korean stock risks. |

| *Biyun Technology ($BIREN TECH (06082.HK)$ )** | Chinese GPU stocks, but under pressure from NVIDIA’s movements and the overall sector. | Already advised to exit. |

#### Other individual stocks / Observation targets

| Bank of China (Hong Kong) ($BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK)$ ) | Broke through the 'major investor range'. | If holding, consider reducing in two parts: sell half at current price, and if it really breaks below HKD 41.9, sell the remaining half. |

| Bay Area Technology ($PLOVER BAY TECH (01523.HK)$ ) | Valuation on the higher side (Starlink concept). | If holding, hold along the 10-day moving average, using the 20-day line as defense. |

| ASMPT ($ASMPT (00522.HK)$ ) | Semiconductor equipment stock, relatively strong, but sector carries risk. | Not recommended to chase at current levels; monitor overall risks. |

| Yangtze Fiber Optics ($YOFC (06869.HK)$ ) | Fiber optics sector, but performance lags behind sector leaders. | Not recommended to catch the bottom; wait for stabilization and a breakout above key levels before considering. |

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Disclaimer: The above content is a summary of the viewpoints from the "Sunzi Live" video on March 4, 2026, and does not constitute any investment advice. Market risks are extremely high, and the mentioned prices and strategies are time-sensitive; please make independent judgments.

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