Earnings boost! Shares of JD.com-related companies surge across the board
【🎁Earnings Guessing】Is the narrowing losses in food delivery a bright spot? With JD.com’s earnings announcement approaching, how strong is its resilience amid the impact of reduced national subsidies?
The countdown begins!$JD.com (JD.US)$/$JD-SW (09618.HK)$JD.com is about to face its first major test following the 'national subsidy rollback.'
On March 5th Beijing time, JD.com will announce its Q4 2025 and full-year financial results.The market expects its Q4 revenue to reach 352.9 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.7%.However, its net profit is expected to be only 213 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 97.8%, with pressure on profitability reaching a temporary low.
![The countdown begins!$JD.com (JD.US)$/$JD-SW (09618.HK)$JD.com is about to face its first major test following the 'national subsidy rollback.'[Keep Fighting] On March 5th Beijing time, JD.com will announce its Q4 2025 and full-year financial results.The market expects its Q4 revenue to reach 352.9 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.7%.However, its net profit is expected to be only 213 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 97.8%, with pressure on profitability reaching a temporary low.[Thinking Face] This profit warning, which could be described as a 'slash at the ankles,' reflects the tug-of-war between two forces. On one hand,Short-term bleeding in core business。The withdrawal of national subsidy policies, coupled with a high base from the same period last year, has put pressure on growth for JD.com's traditionally strong categories like home appliances and electronics.Multiple institutions forecast that JD.com's Q4 revenue from electronic products may experience double-digit negative growth (-10% to -17%). To stimulate consumption, the platform has increased user subsidies, causing JD.com's retail operating profit margin to decline from approximately 3.3% last year to 2.6%-2.7%, with operating profit potentially dropping by more than 20%. This is undoubtedly a significant stress test for its core fundamentals. On the other hand, the resilience of consumer recovery is also shining through:The daily necessities category remains highly robust, driven by subcategories such as supermarkets and health, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth, providing a solid cushion for the overall retail business. More noteworthy is thatthe food delivery business, often regarded as a "cash burner," is quietly writing a new chapter in loss reduction.In Q4 entering...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260303/web-1772509331985-4CII1jo1FH.webp/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
This profit warning, which could be described as a 'slash at the ankles,' reflects the tug-of-war between two forces.
On one hand,Short-term bleeding in core business。The withdrawal of national subsidy policies, coupled with a high base from the same period last year, has put pressure on growth for JD.com's traditionally strong categories like home appliances and electronics.Multiple institutions forecast that JD.com's Q4 revenue from electronic products may experience double-digit negative growth (-10% to -17%). To stimulate consumption, the platform has increased user subsidies, causing JD.com's retail operating profit margin to decline from approximately 3.3% last year to 2.6%-2.7%, with operating profit potentially dropping by more than 20%. This is undoubtedly a significant stress test for its core fundamentals.
On the other hand, the resilience of consumer recovery is also shining through:The daily necessities category remains highly robust, driven by subcategories such as supermarkets and health, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth, providing a solid cushion for the overall retail business.
More noteworthy is thatthe food delivery business, often regarded as a "cash burner," is quietly writing a new chapter in loss reduction.Even after entering the off-season in Q4, it did not stop evolving—Through the refinement of subsidies and a steady increase in the proportion of main meals, the delivery business has maintained healthy growth in order volume, while the unit economic model (UE) continues to improve.CMB International expects that the overall loss of new businesses in the fourth quarter will be RMB 14.5 billion, an improvement from RMB 15.7 billion in the third quarter, with the loss of the delivery business narrowing to RMB 10.4 billion.
This marks that the new business is progressing along a clear path of loss reduction, and the synergies with core retail (e.g., driving repeat purchase rates) are starting to show initial results.At the same time,$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$It is expected to maintain an approximate 20% revenue growth rate, and the share of service revenue is likely to reach a new high, jointly outlining the improvement in the health of the platform’s ecosystem.
At the same time,$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$It is expected to maintain an approximate 20% revenue growth rate, and the share of service revenue is likely to reach a new high, jointly outlining the improvement in the health of the platform’s ecosystem.As early as the Q3 earnings call, management had already sent a clear signal: investment in new businesses will peak in 2025, achieving a “quarterly sequential reduction in investment.” CEO Lei Xu stated at the time that the delivery business and the main retail site continue to produce strong synergies, with the cumulative cross-selling rate of the user base on the rise, laying the groundwork for profit recovery in 2026.
![The countdown begins!$JD.com (JD.US)$/$JD-SW (09618.HK)$JD.com is about to face its first major test following the 'national subsidy rollback.'[Keep Fighting] On March 5th Beijing time, JD.com will announce its Q4 2025 and full-year financial results.The market expects its Q4 revenue to reach 352.9 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.7%.However, its net profit is expected to be only 213 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 97.8%, with pressure on profitability reaching a temporary low.[Thinking Face] This profit warning, which could be described as a 'slash at the ankles,' reflects the tug-of-war between two forces. On one hand,Short-term bleeding in core business。The withdrawal of national subsidy policies, coupled with a high base from the same period last year, has put pressure on growth for JD.com's traditionally strong categories like home appliances and electronics.Multiple institutions forecast that JD.com's Q4 revenue from electronic products may experience double-digit negative growth (-10% to -17%). To stimulate consumption, the platform has increased user subsidies, causing JD.com's retail operating profit margin to decline from approximately 3.3% last year to 2.6%-2.7%, with operating profit potentially dropping by more than 20%. This is undoubtedly a significant stress test for its core fundamentals. On the other hand, the resilience of consumer recovery is also shining through:The daily necessities category remains highly robust, driven by subcategories such as supermarkets and health, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth, providing a solid cushion for the overall retail business. More noteworthy is thatthe food delivery business, often regarded as a "cash burner," is quietly writing a new chapter in loss reduction.In Q4 entering...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260303/web-1772519203843-fcAyYFxEY8.png/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
On one hand, there is short-term pressure on the retail foundation; on the other hand, the narrowing losses in new businesses bring hope for profit recovery.$JD.com (JD.US)$Standing at the crossroads of performance and stock price...In this Q4 'pressure and potential' coexisting test, how will the market price JD.com's results?👇
[Guess the Opening Price to Win Points]Vote to participate in the prediction$JD.com (JD.US)$Opening price range on March 5 at 9:30 AM EST (10:30 PM Beijing Time); those who guess correctly will evenly split10,000 points!
(The poll will end at 17:00 Beijing Time on March 5; rewards will be distributed uniformly after the end of this earnings season)
![The countdown begins!$JD.com (JD.US)$/$JD-SW (09618.HK)$JD.com is about to face its first major test following the 'national subsidy rollback.'[Keep Fighting] On March 5th Beijing time, JD.com will announce its Q4 2025 and full-year financial results.The market expects its Q4 revenue to reach 352.9 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.7%.However, its net profit is expected to be only 213 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 97.8%, with pressure on profitability reaching a temporary low.[Thinking Face] This profit warning, which could be described as a 'slash at the ankles,' reflects the tug-of-war between two forces. On one hand,Short-term bleeding in core business。The withdrawal of national subsidy policies, coupled with a high base from the same period last year, has put pressure on growth for JD.com's traditionally strong categories like home appliances and electronics.Multiple institutions forecast that JD.com's Q4 revenue from electronic products may experience double-digit negative growth (-10% to -17%). To stimulate consumption, the platform has increased user subsidies, causing JD.com's retail operating profit margin to decline from approximately 3.3% last year to 2.6%-2.7%, with operating profit potentially dropping by more than 20%. This is undoubtedly a significant stress test for its core fundamentals. On the other hand, the resilience of consumer recovery is also shining through:The daily necessities category remains highly robust, driven by subcategories such as supermarkets and health, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth, providing a solid cushion for the overall retail business. More noteworthy is thatthe food delivery business, often regarded as a "cash burner," is quietly writing a new chapter in loss reduction.In Q4 entering...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260303/web-1772520750255-9xB867uQYM.png/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
📈Earnings Focus: Can the revaluation of value begin?
>> How deep is the impact of the national subsidy reduction?The decline in the electronics category serves as the market pricing benchmark.If the decline is manageable and growth in daily necessities can effectively offset it, this would indicate that JD.com's core foundation remains solid, and short-term fluctuations are not a major concern.
>> What is the real progress in reducing losses in food delivery?The market expects to see specific data showing improvements in unit economics (UE), as well as evidence of increased user stickiness behind healthy order volume growth.This is not only a test of the new business’s profitability but also a crucial validation of JD.com's 'high-frequency driving low-frequency' ecosystem synergy strategy.
>> Can multi-business synergy unlock greater value?Steady growth in logistics, an increasing share of service revenue, and optimization of the platform merchant ecosystem collectively form JD.com's three-dimensional transformation from an 'e-commerce retailer' to an 'efficient supply chain ecosystem service provider.'Whether the performance can demonstrate the synergy between these business segments will be a key factor in assessing its long-term value.
>> Does the 2026 guidance convey sufficient confidence?Facing the implementation of a new round of national subsidy policies in 2026 and changes in the consumer environment,Management's assessment of growth trends, capital expenditures, and the path to profit recovery,will become a key indicator influencing market sentiment.
What do fellow investors think about JD.com’s earnings report this quarter?Would you choose to believe that the turning point for narrowing losses in the food delivery business has arrived, paving the way for profit recovery? Or will intensifying competition and ongoing investments continue to suppress valuation recovery?Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section!Chinese e-commerce giants face a major profitability test. How to deploy with ease? The 'Earnings Express' AI analyzes key points in three steps to establish an options strategy >>![The countdown begins!$JD.com (JD.US)$/$JD-SW (09618.HK)$JD.com is about to face its first major test following the 'national subsidy rollback.'[Keep Fighting] On March 5th Beijing time, JD.com will announce its Q4 2025 and full-year financial results.The market expects its Q4 revenue to reach 352.9 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.7%.However, its net profit is expected to be only 213 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 97.8%, with pressure on profitability reaching a temporary low.[Thinking Face] This profit warning, which could be described as a 'slash at the ankles,' reflects the tug-of-war between two forces. On one hand,Short-term bleeding in core business。The withdrawal of national subsidy policies, coupled with a high base from the same period last year, has put pressure on growth for JD.com's traditionally strong categories like home appliances and electronics.Multiple institutions forecast that JD.com's Q4 revenue from electronic products may experience double-digit negative growth (-10% to -17%). To stimulate consumption, the platform has increased user subsidies, causing JD.com's retail operating profit margin to decline from approximately 3.3% last year to 2.6%-2.7%, with operating profit potentially dropping by more than 20%. This is undoubtedly a significant stress test for its core fundamentals. On the other hand, the resilience of consumer recovery is also shining through:The daily necessities category remains highly robust, driven by subcategories such as supermarkets and health, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth, providing a solid cushion for the overall retail business. More noteworthy is thatthe food delivery business, often regarded as a "cash burner," is quietly writing a new chapter in loss reduction.In Q4 entering...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260303/web-1772522367761-Nd0v7YypJF.png/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![The countdown begins!$JD.com (JD.US)$/$JD-SW (09618.HK)$JD.com is about to face its first major test following the 'national subsidy rollback.'[Keep Fighting] On March 5th Beijing time, JD.com will announce its Q4 2025 and full-year financial results.The market expects its Q4 revenue to reach 352.9 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.7%.However, its net profit is expected to be only 213 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 97.8%, with pressure on profitability reaching a temporary low.[Thinking Face] This profit warning, which could be described as a 'slash at the ankles,' reflects the tug-of-war between two forces. On one hand,Short-term bleeding in core business。The withdrawal of national subsidy policies, coupled with a high base from the same period last year, has put pressure on growth for JD.com's traditionally strong categories like home appliances and electronics.Multiple institutions forecast that JD.com's Q4 revenue from electronic products may experience double-digit negative growth (-10% to -17%). To stimulate consumption, the platform has increased user subsidies, causing JD.com's retail operating profit margin to decline from approximately 3.3% last year to 2.6%-2.7%, with operating profit potentially dropping by more than 20%. This is undoubtedly a significant stress test for its core fundamentals. On the other hand, the resilience of consumer recovery is also shining through:The daily necessities category remains highly robust, driven by subcategories such as supermarkets and health, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth, providing a solid cushion for the overall retail business. More noteworthy is thatthe food delivery business, often regarded as a "cash burner," is quietly writing a new chapter in loss reduction.In Q4 entering...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260303/web-1772523228807-8F4xf0HGUw.jpeg/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comments (28)
to post a comment
22
11