73.6 yuan defense battle: If Meituan breaks below this level, where will the next stop be?

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Meituan (03690) has seen its share price continue to bottom out recently, closing at 75.8 yuan as of March 3, 2026, with a decline of 2.2%, and a trading volume reaching 2.662 billion yuan. Observing from a technical trend perspective, the stock has fallen from a high of 108 yuan to date, with an accumulated decline of nearly 30%, still remaining in a clear downward channel.

Technical Analysis and Support/Resistance Levels

Based on a comprehensive analysis of technical indicators, Meituan is currently in a zone where 'buy' signals slightly dominate, with signal strength at 11, but it has not yet reached a strong buy level. Multiple oscillation indicators show oversold conditions: RSI at 23, indicating a deep oversold level; stochastic oscillator within the oversold range, CCI indicator issuing a buy signal, and momentum oscillation indicator showing a bottom divergence phenomenon. Notably, the rate of change indicator is issuing a buy signal, VR turnover ratio indicates sellers are entering a contraction phase, and the bull-bear power indicator also leans towards buying.

However, MACD signals, Bollinger Bands, and Ichimoku Cloud all issue sell signals, reflecting that short-term downward pressure still exists, and there is a clear divergence between technical indicators. This aligns with Simon’s view in [HK Stocks Podcast]—the technical picture has improved somewhat, but there is still potential for further downside movement in the share price, and current buy signals have not reached a strong level.

In terms of key technical levels, Meituan's short-term support is at 73.6 yuan. If this level is breached, the next support will test 66 yuan. Regarding resistance levels, the primary short-term resistance is at 83.2 yuan, and if broken through, the upside target could reach 92.1 yuan. Notably, the closing price of 76.45 yuan on March 3 has fallen below several major moving averages, including the 10-day line (80.95 yuan), 30-day line (90.13 yuan), and 60-day line (95.89 yuan), indicating that the short-term trend remains weak. Macquarie Securities also pointed out that Meituan’s 14-day RSI has dropped further to 27.1, which is a technically oversold level.

Market News and Capital Movements

Meituan's subsidiary, Lightyear, recently launched the AI browser 'Tabbit,' supporting both macOS and Windows platforms, available for free use. It can automatically open web pages, extract information, fill out forms, and integrate data across platforms. This move demonstrates Meituan's deepening layout in the AI field, potentially creating new growth points for its business.

In terms of capital flows, the market shows a divergence between bullish and bearish sentiment. On March 2, southbound funds recorded a net sell-off of Meituan worth 240 million yuan, but according to Zhitong Finance data, on the same day, Meituan-W saw a net inflow of 503 million Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds, with a net inflow ratio reaching 11.26%. The difference in statistical口径 may reflect intense capital competition. Overall, some funds still see long-term value in Meituan and are choosing to build positions at lower levels.

Brokerage opinions are also divided. UBS Group noted that while short-term profitability uncertainty remains, they remain optimistic about Meituan's strong competitive advantages, solid consumer mindshare, and differentiated supply-side innovation. They maintained a 'Buy' rating with a target price of 128 yuan. Conversely, Citi holds a cautious view, believing increasing competition will weigh on profitability, maintaining a 'Neutral' rating with a target price of 115 yuan. This divergence reflects the market's ongoing tug-of-war over Meituan’s near-term performance.

Warrant Product Review

Reviewing the Meituan warrant products mentioned on February 27, their subsequent two-day performance highlighted the appeal of bearish products. Societe Generale Bear Certificate (64087) surged 72% in the following two days, while the underlying stock fell by 5.79%; HSBC Bear Certificate (63947) rose 66%; UBS Group Put Warrant (23001) increased by 18%; and BOC Put Warrant (15409) gained 15%. This reflects how put warrants and bear certificates can provide effective hedging tools for investors, or even create profit opportunities during downward trends.

Warrant Product Recommendations and Terms Analysis

For investors optimistic about Meituan's future rebound, consider the following two call warrants:

BOC Call Warrant (26182): Exercise price 90 yuan, offering 4.4x leverage. This product has the highest leverage among similar products and relatively low implied volatility, making it suitable for investors seeking to amplify gains in the underlying stock. The exercise price of 90 yuan is slightly above the current price of 76.45 yuan, making it a mildly out-of-the-money product. If the underlying stock breaks through the short-term resistance level of 83.2 yuan and moves closer to 90 yuan, this warrant will gradually move into the money, potentially delivering significant returns.

BNP Paribas Call Warrant (26186): Also with an exercise price of 90 yuan and 4.8x leverage. This product stands out for having the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar offerings, meaning investors pay less time value and enjoy better cost efficiency. If the underlying stock steadily advances toward the 83.2 yuan resistance level driven by new AI-related business, this warrant would be an excellent choice.

For investors bearish on Meituan's outlook, the following two put warrants can be considered:

UBS Group Put Warrant (23001) $UBMTUAN@EP2612A.P (23001.HK)$ : Strike price of 77.83 yuan, offering 2.7x leverage. This product has the highest leverage among similar offerings with relatively low implied volatility, making it suitable for capturing short-term downward movements. The strike price of 77.83 yuan is slightly higher than the current price of 76.45 yuan, categorizing it as a slightly out-of-the-money put warrant, which makes it highly sensitive to declines in the underlying stock. If the share price breaks below the support level at 73.6 yuan, this warrant’s performance will stand out.

Bank of China Put Warrant (15409) $BIMTUAN@EP2612A.P (15409.HK)$ : Strike price of 77.88 yuan, also offering 2.7x leverage. This product has the highest leverage in its category and the lowest premium and implied volatility, providing strong defensive characteristics. If investors anticipate that the stock price will gradually test the 66-yuan support level but are concerned about the impact of declining implied volatility on returns, this warrant is a more secure option.

Bull/Bear Certificate Recommendations and Terms Analysis

For bull and bear certificates, investors bullish on Meituan can consider the following two bull certificates:

HSBC Bull Certificate (62735) $HS#MTUANRC2701D.C (62735.HK)$ : Stop-loss price of 70 yuan, offering 7.5x effective leverage. This product offers the highest effective leverage among similar products, with lower premiums and better cost efficiency. The stop-loss price of 70 yuan is below the short-term support level of 73.6 yuan, providing a cushion of about 6.5 yuan, showing good defensive capability. Even if the stock falls to the support level at 66 yuan, this certificate still maintains a safe distance, making it suitable for investors adopting a 'buy on dips' strategy.

JP Morgan Bull Certificate (62998) $JP#MTUANRC2608K.C (62998.HK)$ : Also with a stop-loss price of 70 yuan, offering 7.5x effective leverage. This product offers the highest effective leverage among similar products, with relatively lower premiums, making it suitable for aggressive investors. The stop-loss price of 70 yuan is also below the 73.6-yuan support level, but the buffer zone is relatively limited, requiring higher confidence in the stock's movement. Investors need to closely monitor the defense at the 73.6-yuan level.

Investors bearish on Meituan may consider the following two bear certificates:

HSBC Bear Certificate (63947)$HS#MTUANRP2812E.P (63947.HK)$: Recovery price at 85 yuan, offering 7.8 times actual leverage. This product has the highest actual leverage among similar products with the lowest premium, providing strong cost efficiency. The recovery price of 85 yuan is above the short-term resistance level of 83.2 yuan, offering a buffer space of approximately 8.8 yuan, indicating stronger defensive characteristics. If the underlying stock rebounds and faces resistance at 83.2 yuan, this certificate is an ideal deployment tool.

Societe Generale Bear Certificate (64087)$SG#MTUANRP2812V.P (64087.HK)$: Similarly, a recovery price of 85 yuan offering 7.8 times actual leverage. This product offers the highest actual leverage among similar products with relatively low premiums, suitable for investors seeking high returns. It shares the same recovery price as the HSBC Bear Certificate but with similar terms, showing higher sensitivity to declines in the underlying stock.

Summary and Interactive Questions

Overall, Meituan’s short-term trend is constrained by multiple moving averages, and technically it remains in an adjustment phase. However, various oscillation indicators show oversold conditions, with the RSI dropping to 23, suggesting that technical rebound demand is building up. The launch of new AI-related businesses provides potential catalysts for the stock price, but there is divergence among brokers regarding short-term profit expectations, with northbound funds also showing mixed sentiment. In [HKEX Podcast], Simon suggests adding Meituan to the watchlist at this stage, but immediate entry may have limited odds of success, and caution is advised.

Investors can choose appropriate CBBCs or warrants based on their risk tolerance for deployment. Bulls may consider bull certificates with a recovery price at 70 yuan or call warrants with a strike price of 90 yuan; bears might opt for bear certificates with a recovery price of 85 yuan or put warrants with a strike price near 77.8 yuan. The key is to closely monitor the support level at 73.6 yuan and the resistance level at 83.2 yuan as references for entering or exiting positions.

Interactive Questions:

Do you think Meituan's stock price will first test the support level at 73.6 yuan or rebound to challenge the resistance level at 83.2 yuan after the launch of the AI browser 'Tabbit'?

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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