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港股窩輪Jenny
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Strong inflow of call warrant funds! Can Alibaba (09988) form a bottom and rebound?

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$
Today (August 3), the stock opened higher at 139 yuan. In terms of its trend, it has clearly broken below all the short- and medium-term moving averages: the 10-day line (148.66), the 30-day line (158.73), and the 60-day line (154.47). The technical pattern shows a clear bearish alignment.
In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support is at HK$130.7. If it fails to hold, the risk of testing the second support at HK$119.7 will increase sharply. On the upside, the price must first reclaim HK$148.6 (resistance 1) to preliminarily ease downward pressure; stronger resistance is located at HK$163.9 (resistance 2).
Although the stock’s structure appears weak, a series of oscillation indicators have signaled extreme oversold conditions, providing technical signals worth monitoring closely in the short term. The RSI value is at 29, deep in the oversold zone, while the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R also confirm an oversold state, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may be overextended. Notably, although the CCI indicator shows “sell,” its analysis description, “severely oversold, potential bottom forming,” often signals that momentum for a mean reversion from extreme lows is building. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillator and VR Volume Ratio indicators have issued “buy” signals, reflecting some capital beginning to accumulate at current low levels.
However, trend indicators paint a completely different picture. The ADX indicator shows that trend strength favors sellers, while the MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bull-Bear Power indicators consistently issue “sell” signals, confirming that the medium-term downtrend has not yet reversed. Bollinger Band analysis also points to “sell,” suggesting the stock may continue to trade weakly along the lower band. This divergence between oscillation indicators (short-term oversold rebound) and trend indicators (medium-term bearish dominance) forms the core tension in the current technical outlook.
Observing the capital flow in the derivatives market, the street volume of Call Warrants has been accumulating recently, with trading highly concentrated in the out-of-the-money range of 150-170 dollars, reflecting that some aggressive funds are betting on a rebound. In contrast, there has been no significant inflow of funds into the Put Warrant market, and the street volume has contracted instead, indicating that the market is not deploying large-scale short hedging, which may imply that panic selling has temporarily subsided.
1. Dynamics of Trading Value and Street Volume
Call Warrant MarketShows the characteristic of 'rising volume and price': from February 26 to March 2, the street volume increased from 8,807.1 million shares to 9,104.64 million shares, an accumulated growth of 3.4%, indicating continuous fund inflow. In terms of trading value, Call Warrants account for 89.1% of the overall CBBC market, with the 150-170 dollar strike price range contributing 62% of the trading value, becoming the main focus of capital.
Put Warrant MarketPresents a 'low trading activity but contracting street volume' trend: during the same period, the street volume decreased from 1,598.44 million shares to 1,517.89 million shares, a reduction of 5%, and the trading value accounted for only 10.9%, mainly concentrated in the 130-150 dollar strike price range, showing that defensive funds did not significantly increase their positions.
2. Capital Concentration in Strike Price Ranges
– Call warrant: 150-170 dollars (10%-21% out-of-the-money) is the core deployment area, accounting for 58% of the total street volume, with an average actual leverage of 6.8 times and implied volatility of 44.5%.
– Put Warrants: 130-150 dollars (2.6%-10% out-of-the-money) is the main defensive range, accounting for 73% of the total street volume, with an average hedge value of -35%, indicating that investors are using a 'light position hedging' strategy to address downside risks.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (August 3), the stock opened higher at 139 yuan. In terms of its trend, it has clearly broken below all the short- and medium-term moving averages: the 10-day line (148.66), the 30-day line (158.73), and the 60-day line (154.47). The technical pattern shows a clear bearish alignment. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support is at HK$130.7. If it fails to hold, the risk of testing the second support at HK$119.7 will increase sharply. On the upside, the price must first reclaim HK$148.6 (resistance 1) to preliminarily ease downward pressure; stronger resistance is located at HK$163.9 (resistance 2). Although the stock’s structure appears weak, a series of oscillation indicators have signaled extreme oversold conditions, providing technical signals worth monitoring closely in the short term. The RSI value is at 29, deep in the oversold zone, while the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R also confirm an oversold state, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may be overextended. Notably, although the CCI indicator shows “sell,” its analysis description, “severely oversold, potential bottom forming,” often signals that momentum for a mean reversion from extreme lows is building. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillator and VR Volume Ratio indicators have issued “buy” signals, reflecting some capital beginning to accumulate at current low levels. However, trend indicators paint a very different picture. The ADX indicator shows that trend strength is biased towards the sellers, while the MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bull/Bear Power indicators are all consistently signaling 'sell'...
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (August 3), the stock opened higher at 139 yuan. In terms of its trend, it has clearly broken below all the short- and medium-term moving averages: the 10-day line (148.66), the 30-day line (158.73), and the 60-day line (154.47). The technical pattern shows a clear bearish alignment. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support is at HK$130.7. If it fails to hold, the risk of testing the second support at HK$119.7 will increase sharply. On the upside, the price must first reclaim HK$148.6 (resistance 1) to preliminarily ease downward pressure; stronger resistance is located at HK$163.9 (resistance 2). Although the stock’s structure appears weak, a series of oscillation indicators have signaled extreme oversold conditions, providing technical signals worth monitoring closely in the short term. The RSI value is at 29, deep in the oversold zone, while the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R also confirm an oversold state, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may be overextended. Notably, although the CCI indicator shows “sell,” its analysis description, “severely oversold, potential bottom forming,” often signals that momentum for a mean reversion from extreme lows is building. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillator and VR Volume Ratio indicators have issued “buy” signals, reflecting some capital beginning to accumulate at current low levels. However, trend indicators paint a very different picture. The ADX indicator shows that trend strength is biased towards the sellers, while the MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bull/Bear Power indicators are all consistently signaling 'sell'...
Product Review:
Reviewing the performance of the two Alibaba (09988) put warrant products mentioned on February 24, 2026, over the following two trading days. The underlying stock, Alibaba, recorded a decline of approximately 3.38% during this period. $UBALIBA@EP2604C.P (21397.HK)$ ) increased by 27% in price two days later, while another $BIALIBA@EP2606B.P (21943.HK)$ also recorded a 15% increase during the same period, achieving positive returns as well.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (August 3), the stock opened higher at 139 yuan. In terms of its trend, it has clearly broken below all the short- and medium-term moving averages: the 10-day line (148.66), the 30-day line (158.73), and the 60-day line (154.47). The technical pattern shows a clear bearish alignment. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support is at HK$130.7. If it fails to hold, the risk of testing the second support at HK$119.7 will increase sharply. On the upside, the price must first reclaim HK$148.6 (resistance 1) to preliminarily ease downward pressure; stronger resistance is located at HK$163.9 (resistance 2). Although the stock’s structure appears weak, a series of oscillation indicators have signaled extreme oversold conditions, providing technical signals worth monitoring closely in the short term. The RSI value is at 29, deep in the oversold zone, while the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R also confirm an oversold state, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may be overextended. Notably, although the CCI indicator shows “sell,” its analysis description, “severely oversold, potential bottom forming,” often signals that momentum for a mean reversion from extreme lows is building. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillator and VR Volume Ratio indicators have issued “buy” signals, reflecting some capital beginning to accumulate at current low levels. However, trend indicators paint a very different picture. The ADX indicator shows that trend strength is biased towards the sellers, while the MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bull/Bear Power indicators are all consistently signaling 'sell'...
Featured Products
For call warrants, $HSALIBA@EC2606C.C (20461.HK)$ with higher leverage of 7.4 times and an exercise price of 159.88 yuan, it has the lowest implied volatility, making the cost lower and potential return higher, suitable for investors optimistic about Alibaba's future performance. $BIALIBA@EC2606E.C (23760.HK)$ is also an option with an exercise price of 159.98 yuan and leverage of 7.4 times, offering ideal implied volatility and providing a balanced risk-return profile.
For put warrants, $DSALIBA@EP2606A.P (20535.HK)$ the exercise price is 129.9 yuan with leverage of 5.8 times; both its premium and implied volatility are the lowest, meaning the holding cost is lower and it is suitable for investors bearish on Alibaba’s share price. $BIALIBA@EP2606A.P (20584.HK)$ exercise price is also 129.9 yuan, with leverage of 5.3 times, which is relatively high, offering greater sensitivity to volatility.
For bull contracts, $UB#ALIBARC2608I.C (55783.HK)$The recovery price is 130.5 yuan, with an actual leverage as high as 17.1 times and the lowest premium, making it highly capital-efficient in bullish scenarios.$JP#ALIBARC2707F.C (53227.HK)$Recovery price of 130 yuan, leverage of 15.2 times, and relatively low premium, also a robust choice.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (August 3), the stock opened higher at 139 yuan. In terms of its trend, it has clearly broken below all the short- and medium-term moving averages: the 10-day line (148.66), the 30-day line (158.73), and the 60-day line (154.47). The technical pattern shows a clear bearish alignment. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support is at HK$130.7. If it fails to hold, the risk of testing the second support at HK$119.7 will increase sharply. On the upside, the price must first reclaim HK$148.6 (resistance 1) to preliminarily ease downward pressure; stronger resistance is located at HK$163.9 (resistance 2). Although the stock’s structure appears weak, a series of oscillation indicators have signaled extreme oversold conditions, providing technical signals worth monitoring closely in the short term. The RSI value is at 29, deep in the oversold zone, while the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R also confirm an oversold state, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may be overextended. Notably, although the CCI indicator shows “sell,” its analysis description, “severely oversold, potential bottom forming,” often signals that momentum for a mean reversion from extreme lows is building. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillator and VR Volume Ratio indicators have issued “buy” signals, reflecting some capital beginning to accumulate at current low levels. However, trend indicators paint a very different picture. The ADX indicator shows that trend strength is biased towards the sellers, while the MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bull/Bear Power indicators are all consistently signaling 'sell'...
Given the ongoing reduction in the street inventory of put warrants, what do you think about Alibaba's stock price potentially bottoming out and rebounding? Feel free to share your views in the comment section.
Warm reminder: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be conducted using additional data, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Be sure to follow other professional analysis articles from the 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' account to explore more investment opportunities in HK stock derivatives!
#HongKongStocks #HangSengIndex #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #TechStocks #Alibaba #09988$Alibaba (BABA.US)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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