[HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Meituan, CNOOC, Zhaojin Mining, BYD, Tencent - Post-market analysis on March 2

1. Hang Seng Index (HSI) trend analysis: Market sentiment is subdued, technical signals are currently neutral.

Simon: In today's (March 2) HK stock market review, we first focus on the performance of the Hang Seng Index. The HSI finally retreated today, closing at 26,059 points, barely holding above the 26,000-point level. From a technical perspective, the closing price was just above the bottom of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart (approximately 26,035 points), with both levels extremely close. Although the index briefly broke below the lower band during trading, the closing price did not confirm a breakout. However, it is worth noting that the trading volume increased alongside the decline today, which is considered an unfavorable signal in traditional technical analysis, indicating that market participants generally have a bearish outlook. Some investors expect the HSI may further test support around 25,500 or 25,400 points.

From a short-term technical standpoint, the first support level for the HSI is approximately at 25,600 points; if this level is breached, the next support will be around 25,100 points. On the resistance side, the initial resistance level is about 26,700 points. Based on this, for investors considering deploying bear certificates, selecting products with a stop-loss price above 25,000 to 26,800 points would provide stronger defense. Given the current high market volatility, as seen today with significant intraday swings in the HSI, investors should prefer products where the stop-loss price is farther from the spot price when choosing bull or bear certificates to reduce the risk of early redemption.

Despite the significant drop in the HSI today and touching the lower Bollinger Band, a comprehensive analysis of various technical indicators shows that the overall signal remains 'neutral,' with no clear one-sided market indication, provided for investor reference only.

2. Meituan (03690.HK) Analysis: Downward trend persists, technical signals show initial signs of buying

Simon: Next, we will analyze the individual stock Meituan (03690). Observing the daily chart, the stock is currently still in a clear downward channel. Since its recent high at HKD 108, the share price has fallen nearly 30%, and it is now trading at HKD 74, with significant losses.

Market observers have noted that investors who purchased Meituan put warrants around the HKD 80 level earlier have likely accumulated substantial profits and successfully captured this round of declines. For investors holding the underlying shares or considering entering, is the current price worth watching or investing in?

From a technical signal analysis perspective, Meituan currently shows relatively more 'buy' signals, leaning towards a buy recommendation but not yet reaching a 'strong buy' level. This suggests that while there is some technical improvement, the share price could still face further downside risks. Generally, when technical signals strongly suggest buying, the success rate of market entry tends to be higher. Therefore, at this stage, Meituan can be added to the watchlist, but the odds of immediate short-term gains are limited, and continued observation is recommended.

In terms of support levels, Meituan’s short-term support is at HKD 74.7. If this level breaks, the share price will likely test HKD 66.6. Investors should also note that if the overall market trend continues to weaken, upward momentum for individual stocks may also be constrained.

3. CNOOC (00883.HK) Analysis: Oil price boost drives sharp share price increase, technical indicators show overbought signals

Simon: Benefiting from rising oil prices, CNOOC (00883) showed strong performance today (August 2), with significant rebound, closing at HKD 26.74 after touching a high of HKD 26.88 during the session. Notably, the closing price has broken through the top of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart, with significantly increased trading volume, exceeding market expectations.

For investors considering entering at this level, caution is advised. Although the stock performed well, comprehensive technical signal analysis indicates that 'sell' signals currently dominate. The sharp rise in share price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band reflects an overbought condition technically, making a sell signal reasonable. Conversely, investors who entered early with call warrants last week likely reaped considerable returns today.

Support-wise, CNOOC's short-term support lies at HKD 25, with the next key support at HKD 23.9. On the resistance side, the immediate resistance is at HKD 28.1. If it can break through successfully, the target will shift upwards to HKD 29.2.

4. Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) Analysis: Gold price lifts share price higher, challenging the HKD 40 mark seems possible

Simon: Zhaojin Mining (01818) continued its steady rise today (2nd), following the strength in gold prices, closing at HKD 36.56, with trading volume also higher compared to previous sessions. Investors are concerned whether the stock price can reclaim the HKD 40 mark.

From a resistance analysis perspective, Zhaojin Mining's short-term resistance level is at HKD 39.4. If it can effectively break through this level, there is potential for further testing of HKD 40.4, indicating that the chance of reaching HKD 40 exists. However, technical indicators show relatively stronger 'sell' signals in the short term, and investors should be mindful of potential technical pullback pressures while remaining optimistic.

5. BYD (01211.HK) Analysis: Strong against the market trend; heightened volatility calls for risk awareness

Simon: BYD (01211) showed positive performance against the market trend today (2nd), with significant intraday fluctuations, ultimately closing at HKD 99.1, nearing the HKD 100 mark, and trading volume significantly increased compared to recent levels. It is necessary to remind investors that as the volatility of the underlying stock increases, the risks associated with derivative products (such as bull/bear certificates) will also rise. Choosing products with recovery prices too close to the current price may trigger recovery mechanisms if sharp fluctuations occur.

Technically, BYD’s short-term resistance level stands at HKD 102.3. If it can stabilize above this level, the next target could be HKD 106.1. For investors holding bull certificates, the short-term support level can be referenced at HKD 93.1. A breach below this level would shift the next support to HKD 92.1. Hence, when selecting bull certificates, to enhance safety, consider choosing products with recovery prices lower than HKD 92 or even further away.

6. Tencent (00700.HK) Analysis: Pre-earnings deployment requires caution; accumulating in batches is advisable

Simon: Lastly, analyzing Tencent (00700). Compared to gold and oil-related stocks, Tencent's recent performance has been relatively weak. Since retreating from its January high of HKD 639, the stock has been in an overall adjustment pattern, hitting a low of HKD 507 during today’s session, approaching the HKD 500 level, and finally closing at HKD 514. Some investors in the market are paying attention to potential opportunities before Tencent's earnings announcement and considering a strategy of buying on dips.

From a technical support perspective, Tencent’s short-term support level is at HKD 496. If this level fails to hold, the next support will test HKD 478. Therefore, investors holding bull certificates are advised to select products with more distant recovery prices to strengthen their defense, such as bull certificates with recovery prices around HKD 480, which would provide greater buffer space.

In terms of technical signals, Tencent currently shows relatively more 'buy' signals, placing it within a region leaning towards buying, but not strongly enough to indicate a strong buy signal. Thus, if planning to adopt a 'buy on dips' strategy, a prudent approach would be to stagger purchases rather than fully committing at once, to mitigate the risk of 'lower does not mean lowest.' Investors must carefully plan their funds based on their own risk tolerance.

That concludes today's sharing on Hong Kong stocks. Thank you all for listening. If you have any questions about specific stocks or derivative products, feel free to leave comments for discussion. We'll analyze the latest Hong Kong stock trends in our next session.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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