[Warrant Perspective] HSI under pressure as volume increases during pullback; key support at 25,600 points
On March 2nd, the entire Hong Kong stock market saw a pullback,In our column show [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast]March 2nd [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Meituan, CNOOC, Zhaojin Mining, BYD, TencentAll were reviewed. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CNOOC (00883.HK)$$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$
: The previous day (2nd) finally saw a decline, closing at 26,059 points, barely holding above the 26,000-point level. From a technical perspective, the closing price was just above the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart (around 26,035 points), with both extremely close. Although there was an intraday breach below the lower Bollinger Band, the closing price failed to confirm the breakdown. However, it's worth noting that trading volume increased alongside the decline on the 2nd, which is considered a bearish signal in traditional technical analysis, indicating widespread pessimism about future market performance.
![On March 2nd, the entire Hong Kong stock market saw a pullback,In our column show [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast][Share Link: March 2nd [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Meituan, CNOOC, Zhaojin Mining, BYD, Tencent]All were reviewed. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CNOOC (00883.HK)$$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : The previous day (2nd) finally saw a decline, closing at 26,059 points, barely holding above the 26,000-point level. From a technical perspective, the closing price was just above the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart (around 26,035 points), with both extremely close. Although there was an intraday breach below the lower Bollinger Band, the closing price failed to confirm the breakdown. However, it's worth noting that trading volume increased alongside the decline on the 2nd, which is considered a bearish signal in traditional technical analysis, indicating widespread pessimism about future market performance. Some investors expect the HSI may further test levels around 25,500 or 25,400 points.From a short-term technical perspective, the first support level for the HSI is around 25,600 points. If this level fails to hold, the next support will be around 25,100 points. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at approximately 26,700 points. In terms of other stocks, there was also a broad-based decline on the 2nd, among which $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、 ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260303/web-1772499426449-XnAPDajBVG.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Some investors expect the HSI may further test levels around 25,500 or 25,400 points.From a short-term technical perspective, the first support level for the HSI is around 25,600 points. If this level fails to hold, the next support will be around 25,100 points. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at approximately 26,700 points.
In terms of other stocks, there was also a broad-based decline on the 2nd, among which $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、 $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ drops of more than 3%, putting significant selling pressure on the sector, reflecting a generally pessimistic market sentiment. From a technical indicator perspective, clear divergence signals emerged, which are worth noting for investors:
1. Moving Average Patterns: Closing prices were significantly below the MA10, MA30, and MA60, presenting a standard bearish alignment, indicating a strong short-term downtrend. However, all moving average signals concurrently showed 'strong buy' indications, implying that stock prices have deviated far from their averages, creating expectations for a potential mean reversion rally.
2. RSI Indicator: The RSI of most stocks fell below 30, with Meituan's dropping as low as 24, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 27 for Tencent, and Alibaba at 29. This oversold condition has intensified, serving as a potential technical rebound signal.
3. The overall technical indicators show strong 'buy' signals, with intensity ranging from 9 to 11. Multiple oscillation indicators (such as the Williams %R and CCI) have issued oversold signals, indicating a strong technical rebound is needed.
Friendly reminder: This divergence of 'falling stock prices but buy signals' does not guarantee an immediate rebound; it still requires confirmation through trading volume. Investors should avoid blindly following and instead patiently observe the performance of key support levels.
Review and Selection of Bull/Bear Warrants:
1. Review of past products:
The two Hang Seng Index UBS Group bear warrants recommended on February 24 performed impressively: $UB#HSI RP28023.P (61223.HK)$ A 20% increase over two days, $UB#HSI RP2811A.P (54764.HK)$ A 21% increase over two days, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.79% during the same period. This aligns with the market pullback at that time and also reminds investors that warrant products need to closely follow the broader market trend.
![On March 2nd, the entire Hong Kong stock market saw a pullback,In our column show [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast][Share Link: March 2nd [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Meituan, CNOOC, Zhaojin Mining, BYD, Tencent]All were reviewed. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CNOOC (00883.HK)$$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : The previous day (2nd) finally saw a decline, closing at 26,059 points, barely holding above the 26,000-point level. From a technical perspective, the closing price was just above the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart (around 26,035 points), with both extremely close. Although there was an intraday breach below the lower Bollinger Band, the closing price failed to confirm the breakdown. However, it's worth noting that trading volume increased alongside the decline on the 2nd, which is considered a bearish signal in traditional technical analysis, indicating widespread pessimism about future market performance. Some investors expect the HSI may further test levels around 25,500 or 25,400 points.From a short-term technical perspective, the first support level for the HSI is around 25,600 points. If this level fails to hold, the next support will be around 25,100 points. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at approximately 26,700 points. In terms of other stocks, there was also a broad-based decline on the 2nd, among which $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、 ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260303/web-1772499822634-sEC0T8y9zD.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
2. Selected Warrant Bull/Bear Products:
Based on the Hang Seng Index movement and technical signals, two high-value products have been carefully selected for investors' reference:
① $JP-HSI @EC2605A.C (22977.HK)$ : Leverage 15.9, strike price 28,200. Its core advantage lies in having the highest leverage, with both premium and implied volatility at low levels, making it suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term rebound in the Hang Seng Index.
② $BI-HSI @EP2605B.P (23127.HK)$ : Leverage 11.9, strike price 24,875, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it suitable for investors who are bearish on the Hang Seng Index and looking to hedge against market volatility risks.
Risk Warning: Warrants are derivatives with significant leverage effects. Investors should choose based on their own risk tolerance, and position control is even more crucial.
![On March 2nd, the entire Hong Kong stock market saw a pullback,In our column show [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast][Share Link: March 2nd [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Meituan, CNOOC, Zhaojin Mining, BYD, Tencent]All were reviewed. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CNOOC (00883.HK)$$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : The previous day (2nd) finally saw a decline, closing at 26,059 points, barely holding above the 26,000-point level. From a technical perspective, the closing price was just above the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart (around 26,035 points), with both extremely close. Although there was an intraday breach below the lower Bollinger Band, the closing price failed to confirm the breakdown. However, it's worth noting that trading volume increased alongside the decline on the 2nd, which is considered a bearish signal in traditional technical analysis, indicating widespread pessimism about future market performance. Some investors expect the HSI may further test levels around 25,500 or 25,400 points.From a short-term technical perspective, the first support level for the HSI is around 25,600 points. If this level fails to hold, the next support will be around 25,100 points. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at approximately 26,700 points. In terms of other stocks, there was also a broad-based decline on the 2nd, among which $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、 ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260303/web-1772499838455-pAxClC0eqX.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![On March 2nd, the entire Hong Kong stock market saw a pullback,In our column show [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast][Share Link: March 2nd [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Meituan, CNOOC, Zhaojin Mining, BYD, Tencent]All were reviewed. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CNOOC (00883.HK)$$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : The previous day (2nd) finally saw a decline, closing at 26,059 points, barely holding above the 26,000-point level. From a technical perspective, the closing price was just above the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart (around 26,035 points), with both extremely close. Although there was an intraday breach below the lower Bollinger Band, the closing price failed to confirm the breakdown. However, it's worth noting that trading volume increased alongside the decline on the 2nd, which is considered a bearish signal in traditional technical analysis, indicating widespread pessimism about future market performance. Some investors expect the HSI may further test levels around 25,500 or 25,400 points.From a short-term technical perspective, the first support level for the HSI is around 25,600 points. If this level fails to hold, the next support will be around 25,100 points. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at approximately 26,700 points. In terms of other stocks, there was also a broad-based decline on the 2nd, among which $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、 ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260303/web-1772499838453-HrdVuubDtn.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
The Hang Seng Index narrowly defended the 26,000-point level. Do you think it will test the 25,600-point support this week? A. Yes. B. No.
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #HangSengIndex #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #TechStocks #TechSector #TechnicalAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comment (1)
to post a comment
7