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Earnings and dividends exceed expectations! HSBC's share price hits another record high
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Feb 27 10:24

February 26 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Tencent, HSBC, Li Ning, NetEase, AIA

1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus.
Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions.
In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
Looking at the bull and bear warrants in the market, there are several options worth considering. Currently, the resistance level is around 27,000 points. If the index can break through 27,000 points, it may subsequently aim for 28,000 points. You can pay attention to bearish products near 27,600 points or slightly higher. Some products already have leverage approaching 20 times, typically offering leverage around 18 to 19 times, especially for products with a recovery price at 27,600 points, providing many choices. Investors should compare different product terms carefully.
Here’s one more piece of reference information: based on various technical indicators, the short-term trend remains slightly bullish, mainly recommending “buy” signals, with favorable buy signals slightly dominating. This short-term trend is provided for your reference. Of course, ultimately, you need to combine your own investment judgment and analysis while assessing your risk tolerance. $UB#HSI RP2811A.P (54764.HK)$$UB#HSI RP28023.P (61223.HK)$
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Tencent (00700.HK): Investors are asking if it will break below HKD 500? In the warrants market, investors are buying Put options.
Simon: Next, let's look at individual stock situations. The first one to talk about is Tencent (00700). Amidst the broader market decline, Tencent has not been immune, and today (the 26th) it continued to fall. Actually, since entering February, Tencent's trend has been less than ideal. From the daily chart since February, it's clear that Tencent's share price has been continuously weakening. After previously surging to a high of HKD 639, the overall trend has been downward. Although there were minor rebounds along the way, the overall trend has remained weak. Today, it closed near its lowest point at HKD 512, and the overall trend remains sluggish.
Some investors have also asked whether Tencent might fall below the HKD 500 mark given its ongoing weak performance. Simply put, this possibility exists. Based on technical support levels, Tencent’s support level is around HKD 496, which is already below the psychological HKD 500 level, so the share price could indeed test HKD 496. If HKD 496 is broken, the next potential downside target would be around HKD 473.
We can also see in the warrants market that many investors are buying Tencent's Put warrants. There are various choices available for Tencent Puts with different terms, but it should be noted that some products are nearing expiration. Whether expiring in February or March, these should be avoided. It would be better to choose products expiring in May or June this year. These products offer decent leverage, with some having around 7x leverage and others around 8x. There are plenty of options, but investors need to compare implied volatility and premium carefully because there can be significant differences between products. Tencent offers a wide range of Put warrant choices across different price ranges, though the terms vary, so investors must carefully select those most advantageous to them. $UBTENCT@EP2606A.P (21984.HK)$$BITENCT@EP2606A.P (23122.HK)$$SG#TENCTRP2812S.P (59351.HK)$$UB#TENCTRP2812N.P (59488.HK)$
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. HSBC Holdings (00005.HK): Investors indicate they will continue holding; what’s the next resistance level? In the warrants market, some investors are looking at Call warrants with an exercise price of HKD 168.1.
Simon: Next, let’s take a look at HSBC Holdings (00005). HSBC’s recent performance has been good. Yesterday (the 25th), both the share price and trading volume pleased investors, and today (the 26th) it even surged to HKD 148 during trading. Overall, HSBC’s trend has maintained an upward trajectory, rising from around HKD 120 at the beginning of the year to a high of HKD 148 today. Some investors are asking, if they continue to be bullish on HSBC, where is the resistance level?
Technically speaking, the immediate resistance level is at HKD 150. If it breaks through HKD 150, the next resistance level is HKD 154.3, which serves as a reference point. We can also observe that some investors are continuing to focus on HSBC Call warrants. Currently, there are products in the market with exercise prices around HKD 153 or HKD 159. Even for those seeking higher exercise prices, such as HKD 160, corresponding products are available. However, we don’t recommend purchasing deep out-of-the-money products, as previously mentioned multiple times. When selecting Call warrants, while higher out-of-the-money levels provide greater leverage, the associated risks are also higher, and success rates may be lower.
Currently in the market, there are quite a few HSBC Call warrants with relatively low out-of-the-money levels, such as those with an exercise price around HKD 148. Even for those with an exercise price of HKD 159, the out-of-the-money level is within 10%, and their expiration dates are suitable, mostly falling in November or December this year. As a reminder, in addition to leverage, it’s important to pay attention to differences in implied volatility and premium. For instance, for products with an exercise price of HKD 159 and expiring in November-December, there are significant differences in implied volatility and premium among different products. In addition to leverage, you should compare premiums, implied volatility, and other terms to choose the most beneficial product. $BI-HSBC@EC2605A.C (23691.HK)$$BI-HSBC@EC2609B.C (22630.HK)$$UB#HSBC RC2809F.C (59997.HK)$$UB#HSBC RC2812B.C (62176.HK)$
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Li Ning (02331.HK): Breaking new highs, can it challenge HKD 25? Holding Call warrants with an exercise price of HKD 23.88.
Simon: Let’s now look at another stock, Li Ning (02331). First, examining Li Ning’s share price movement, today (the 26th) it surged above HKD 23 during trading, similar to yesterday’s movement, when it rose to HKD 23.42 before retreating. Today followed the same pattern of rising then retreating, closing at HKD 22.28. Over the past two days, Li Ning’s trading volume has increased compared to previous days, and investors remain optimistic about its trend. Some are asking whether, if it continues to rise, Li Ning has a chance to reach HKD 25.
From a technical analysis of resistance levels, it will take some time to reach 25 yuan. The immediate resistance level for Li Ning is at 23.6 yuan. If it can break through 23.6 yuan, there is potential to rise to 24.4 yuan. Therefore, investors optimistic about 25 yuan need to be patient and first observe the breakthrough at 23.6 yuan, then assess the performance at 24.4 yuan after that.
Some investors hold call warrants for Li Ning, with some strike prices around 23.88 yuan. If they have been held since early February this year, the returns should be good as the price of related CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts) has risen significantly. If purchased recently, patience will be required. Here’s a reminder: whether holding Li Ning call warrants or other CBBC products, always pay attention to the expiration date, as these products experience daily time decay. The closer to the expiration date, the greater the daily time value loss. That's why I often share that when choosing call warrants, try to select those with later expiration dates. This way, even if the underlying stock doesn't fluctuate much, the daily time decay will be smaller. In terms of product terms, instruments with later expiration dates are more suitable. $BILININ@EC2605B.C (22219.HK)$$MSLININ@EC2605A.C (24048.HK)$
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. NetEase-S (09999.HK): Investors ask, after falling for five months, where is the support level?
Simon: Next, let’s look at NetEase (09999). Not only is NetEase performing poorly today (26th), but its overall recent trend has also been weak, with the stock price continuously declining over a period of time. In January this year, NetEase's share price surged to a high of 232.6 yuan, but since then, it has been oscillating downward with significant losses, hitting an intraday low of 174.2 yuan, breaking below 175 yuan. However, the closing price managed to stabilize just above 175 yuan. The decline from the peak has been substantial.
Investors are asking, after such a prolonged fall, where is the short-term support level for NetEase?
From a technical perspective, the short-term support level is approximately 169.4 yuan. If it breaks below 169.4 yuan, the next support level will be at 160.1 yuan. So, if NetEase subsequently falls below 170 yuan or even approaches 160 yuan, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Based on support level calculations, this scenario is possible, which is provided here for reference.
However, based on technical signals, there is still a possibility of a technical rebound for NetEase. Currently, the aggregate technical indicators lean slightly towards a mildly positive signal. While there is potential for a rebound, the overall downtrend hasn’t shown a clear reversal yet, and this needs to be considered alongside your risk tolerance. Whether buying the underlying stock or derivatives like CBBCs or bull/bear contracts, risk awareness is crucial. For buying the underlying stock, prepare for long-term holding and patiently waiting, as the overall trend remains downward. For CBBCs or bull/bear contracts, the risks are higher due to leverage. $UB-NTES@EP2608A.P (24274.HK)$$JP-NTES@EP2608A.P (24127.HK)$
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. AIA (01299.HK): Strong performance, is it a good time to enter now? In the CBBC market, someone holds a bull contract with a stop-loss level at 73 yuan.
Simon: Finally, let's look at one more stock today (26th), AIA (1299). First, examining AIA’s stock price movement, around February 13, the price once dropped to the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, then rebounded with fluctuations. However, in the past four trading days, the price has repeatedly tested the midline of the Bollinger Bands but has remained constrained by this level, failing to break through effectively. Today's (26th) closing price was 84.7 yuan.
Investors remain bullish on AIA and want to know two things: First, what does the current technical signal analysis indicate for AIA? Second, if looking for a lower entry point, what is the reference support level?
To answer the first question, the overall summary of technical signals is currently neutral, with no clear directional guidance. Let me explain: the summary of technical signals typically has five conclusions — Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Sell, and Strong Sell. These are primarily based on a combination of over a dozen technical analysis indicators to assess short-term trends (on a trading day basis, looking at the next few trading days). For AIA, the indicators for bullish and bearish outlooks are evenly balanced, resulting in a neutral stance without any clear short-term guidance. This information is provided for your reference.
Moving on to the second question, if you're optimistic about AIA and looking to position at lower levels, where are the support levels? The current support level for AIA is around HKD 81.5. If it breaks below 81.5, the next support level is HKD 77.7. Therefore, investors who are long-term bullish on AIA and want to accumulate on dips can pay attention to these two support levels.
Some investors hold bull contracts on AIA. Considering that the short-term support might drop to HKD 77.7, if you're planning to buy or hold AIA bull contracts, it’s advisable to choose products with a stop-loss price below 77.7, or even lower, as this will reduce the probability of forced liquidation. Of course, selecting the right product depends on comparing terms and conditions while having a directional view of the market. The key is finding a product that matches your strategy, ideally one whose terms benefit your investment approach.
If you have any questions about various products after the market opens, feel free to communicate with our colleagues for consultation and to get the latest updates on products, as all product terms will fluctuate in real-time with the market once trading begins. We usually recommend staying in touch with colleagues to understand the most competitive premiums and discuss any concerns you may have.
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
1. Hang Seng Index: Market sentiment is weak, investors believe tomorrow will gap down and fall directly to 25,870 points during trading; overnight bear contracts are in focus. Simon: Hello everyone, let's review today’s (26th) Hong Kong stock market situation. It is clear that the Hang Seng Index fell significantly today. Overall, the decline was quite large, which everyone could see. Today’s (26th) overall volatility saw a temporary rise during the session. From the daily chart, the price moved near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the closing price dropped to 26,381 points, indicating a substantial drop. Looking at today’s (26th) trading volume compared to the past two or three days, or even four or five days, the volume increased. An increase in trading volume during a downturn is not necessarily a good sign. However, yesterday’s volume was also relatively high, and although today’s (26th) volume was slightly higher than yesterday’s, the increase wasn’t significant. Comparing it to previous days, overall trading activity has been more active over the last three days. However, an increase in volume during a decline isn't what investors want to see, making them cautious. Some investors believe the Hang Seng Index might open lower tomorrow and may even test the 25,800-point level. Investors will continue to stay on the sidelines with light positions. In terms of current support levels, whether it will fall to 25,800 points depends crucially on whether the first support level at 26,100 points can hold. If 26,100 points are broken, then the Hang Seng Index will likely test 25,800 points, or even 25,700 points. The technically calculated support level is 26,100 points, and if broken, the next target would be 25,700 points, which is close to the 25,800 points analyzed by investors. Additionally, the 26,000-point level is also the bottom of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, so investors can use this simple method to judge future trends: observe whether the Hang Seng Index will fall near the Bollinger Bands' bottom tomorrow. This can serve as the first reference point for judging the outlook.
That concludes today's sharing. Thank you for tuning in, and we'll see you again tomorrow at the same time. Goodbye!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$ $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ $JD-SW (09618.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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