A framework to understand the overall Meituan call market
Technical coordinates
This analysis is based on $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ the current priceof HKD 81.6,combined with technical support and resistance levels to define a reasonable range of activity: the main support level is atHKD 77.3,with a downward testing area atHKD 71,and the main resistance level is at86.6 yuan, the upside target is94.6 yuan. Products with strike prices in the range of 71 yuan to 94.6 yuan fall within the current technical range, while products with strike prices above 94.6 yuan belong to the advanced speculation range, where price movements need to break through existing technical targets to realize profits.
Strike price structure range division
The total number of Meituan call warrants in the current statistics is177 contracts, divided into six structural roles based on the strike price relative to the current price and technical levels:
1. Deep In-The-Money (Trend / Stock Alternative): Strike price below 77.3 yuan, corresponding to the underlying stock being in the price range above the main support level, the number of products in this range currently in the market is0。
2. In-The-Money Main Force (Daily Swing Tool): Strike prices ranging from 77.3 yuan to 81.6 yuan, corresponding to the underlying stock price between the major support level and the current price; the number of products in this range currently available in the market is0。
3. Slightly in-the-money (efficiency and flexibility): Strike prices ranging from 81.6 yuan to 86.6 yuan, corresponding to the underlying stock price between the current price and the major resistance level; the number of products in this range currently available in the market is0, all call warrants are currently out-of-the-money.
4. Near at-the-money (Breakthrough Core): Strike price between 86.6 yuan and 94.6 yuan, requiring the underlying stock to break through the major resistance level to move in-the-money; the total number of products in this range is4 products, with strike prices concentrated between 88.88 yuan and 93 yuan.
5. Moderately out-of-the-money (Target Betting)The strike prices range from 94.6 yuan to 120 yuan, with profitability achievable only if the underlying stock breaks through the upper target price; this range has the highest number of products, totaling85 products, covering a broad price range from 97.86 yuan to 118.1 yuan.
6. Deep out-of-the-money (sentiment/tail risk): Strike prices above 120 yuan require extreme upward movement in the underlying stock to realize value; this range includes a total of88 products, with the highest strike price reaching 177.77 yuan.
Street Inventory Distribution Analysis
The current total street volume of Meituan call warrants is mainly concentrated in two ranges: moderately out-of-the-money (94.6 yuan to 120 yuan) and deep out-of-the-money (above 120 yuan). The street volume proportion for the moderately out-of-the-money range is approximately45%The proportion of street goods in the distant price range is approximately52%and for the deep out-of-the-money range is about, showing clear concentration in these two intervals. Further observation reveals that the dense points of street volume in the moderately out-of-the-money range are concentrated between 98 yuan and 109 yuan, while those in the deep out-of-the-money range are concentrated between 130 yuan and 158 yuan, with no excessive concentration on a single strike price in either case.
From a technical standpoint, the core concentration area in the mid-price range of 98 to 109 yuan is above the key resistance level of 86.6 yuan, close to the upside target of 94.6 yuan, indicating that market funds are betting on an upward movement after the underlying stock breaks through the current major resistance. The concentration area in the far-out price range of 130 to 158 yuan is much higher than the current technical target, representing a typical long-term extreme scenario bet. The potential risk of this distribution structure lies in the possibility that if the underlying stock fails to effectively break through the key resistance at 86.6 yuan, the products in the mid-price range will remain deep out-of-the-money for an extended period, with a faster time decay; and if the underlying stock does not experience a substantial rise in the coming months, the products in the far-out price range face a high risk of expiring worthless.
Analysis of trading distribution
The most active trading range currently is in the mid-out price segment between 106 and 115 yuan, with a single-day peak turnover reaching38.2 million yuan, followed by the near-at-the-money range between 88 and 98 yuan, with overall trading concentrated at the edges of the technical activity range, and the trading proportion of products fully within the 94.6 yuan technical target being less than10%。
Further comparison of open interest and trading data reveals that the far-out price range of 130 to 158 yuan belongs to a typical 'waiting-type open interest' region. This range has a large total open interest but an average daily turnover generally below 1 million yuan, indicating that these funds are primarily held long-term, betting on extreme scenarios, and are scenario-betting funds. In contrast, the mid-out price range of 88 to 115 yuan shows active trading, with faster changes in open interest, making it a region where operational funds concentrate with more flexible fund inflows and outflows.
Competitiveness analysis of terms
In terms of clause efficiency, products in the near-at-the-money range of 88 to 94.6 yuan remain structurally competitive. The actual leverage of products in this range generally falls between3.9x to 4.5x, with a premium rate of approximately10% to 16%, implied volatility approximately45% to 52%, combined with the technical upside potential after the underlying stock breaks through the resistance at 86.6 yuan, the risk-reward ratio of products in this range is relatively reasonable, while also providing a certain level of trading liquidity support.
For medium-priced out-of-the-money products in the range of 94.6 yuan to 115 yuan, although the actual leverage can reach as high as12.7 times, the premium rates are generally above20%, with implied volatilities mostly above 45%. If the underlying stock only reaches the upward target of 94.6 yuan but does not rise further, the returns of products in this range will be significantly eroded by high premiums and volatility costs, showing the characteristic of high nominal leverage but insufficient actual profit potential. Out-of-the-money products priced above 120 yuan have uneven leverage levels, with many being near-expiry products. Their terms' efficiency and technical potential are severely mismatched, leading to extremely high structural costs.
Range-representative products
The market focus this time is on the medium-priced out-of-the-money range between 98 yuan and 109 yuan, selecting two products as structural examples. These examples are used solely to illustrate the characteristics of the range and do not constitute any investment advice. The first product is a call warrant issued by Societe Generale,23239with an exercise price of 98.93 yuan and an expiration date of October 23, 2026. It offers an actual leverage of 4.9 times and an implied volatility of 44.56%. Its advantage lies in its relatively low implied volatility compared to similar products in the same range, and with 8 months remaining until expiration, the rate of time decay is relatively slower. The second product is a call warrant issued by Bank of China,25814with an exercise price of 97.9 yuan and an expiration date of August 10, 2026. It offers an actual leverage of 5.8 times and an implied volatility of 45.15%. Its advantage is its relatively high actual leverage, but the downside is its relatively short time to expiration. If the underlying stock fails to break through the key resistance level within 2 months, the risk of the product expiring worthless is relatively high.
Structural Risk Summary
The current maximum structural risk is concentrated in the far out-of-the-money strike price range above 120 yuan, where nearly half of the products fall. Most of these products have less than 6 months left until expiration, and some even have only 1 month remaining. The underlying stock would need to rise by more than47%to enter an in-the-money state, making it extremely challenging.
If the underlying stock fails to break through the upside target of 94.6 yuan within the next three months, high-leverage products in the mid-out-of-the-money range will face pressure from rapid time value decay.
If the underlying stock fails to break through the key resistance level of 86.6 yuan or even loses support at 77.3 yuan, the prices of all out-of-the-money call warrants will drop significantly, with products having shorter remaining maturities and higher implied volatility being the most affected.
Summary
Mid-out-of-the-money street inventory accumulates early; while there is strong interest in breaking through, the structural risks in the far out-of-the-money range remain relatively high.
Product Picks:
Strike Price: 97.95 yuan
Expiration Date: August 3, 2026 (5 months remaining)
Effective Leverage: 5.9 times
Recommendation Rationale: The product offers good quote continuity, extremely low street inventory of 2.4%, reasonable implied volatility of 45.6%, and sufficient buy-sell liquidity.
Applicable Scenario: Suitable for daily swing trading operations, with low entry and exit costs, ideal for investors engaging in frequent trades to participate in short-term underlying stock movements.
Strike Price: 93 yuan
Expiration Date: October 30, 2026 (8 months remaining)
Actual leverage: 3.9x
Recommendation reason: With a premium rate of 15.6%, it is one of the products with the most standard terms in a slightly out-of-the-money range, with stable guaranteed quote liquidity.
Applicable scenario: Suitable for cautious investors looking to position for a breakout above the 86.6 yuan resistance level with a light allocation; volatility is relatively stable, and time value decay is slower.
Strike price: 90 yuan
Expiration date: October 5, 2026 (7 months remaining)
Actual leverage: 4.5x
Recommendation reason: One of the products with the strike price closest to the current price, delta of 48%, implied volatility of 45.31% is significantly lower than the average in the same range, and the bid-ask spread is relatively narrow.
Applicable scenario: Suitable for investors who require efficient leverage while aiming to control overall risk, serving as a foundational allocation for breakout scenarios.
Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses presented may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided herein. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be conducted using additional resources, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Be sure to follow 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny' for more professional analysis articles on Hong Kong stock derivative investment opportunities!$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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