BOC guest viewpoint confirmed: Alibaba (9988) support level at HKD 144 aligns with Niki's analysis

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ BOC guest viewpoint confirmed: Alibaba (9988) support level at HKD 144 aligns with Niki's analysis

Alibaba (09988.HK) has recently shown a rebound pattern after price adjustments, closing at HKD 148.7 on February 25 with a gain of 0.88%. This article will analyze the short-term trend of Alibaba by combining the latest technical data, market news, and insights from the February 10 [HK Stocks Podcast] and January 28 [BOC Guest] segments. It will also provide detailed guidance on how to use warrants and bull/bear certificates to capture potential opportunities while reviewing recent product performance.

From a technical perspective, Alibaba is currently in a critical technical rebound phase. The stock price has recovered from recent lows, but multiple moving averages still show a bearish arrangement, with the 10-day line (HKD 154.44) and 30-day line (HKD 160.82) remaining above the current price, indicating that short-term trends need further repair. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is at 41, the Williams %R indicator shows 'oversold zone, buy,' and the stochastic oscillator also signals 'oversold condition, buy signal.' Multiple indicators suggest that the stock price is oversold in the short term, leaving room for a rebound. The overall technical indicator signal is 'buy' with an intensity of 10, showing that the technical outlook is improving. Notably, the ROC and VR volume ratio indicators both indicate 'oversold, possible bottoming, buy,' providing technical support for a short-term rebound.

In terms of support and resistance levels, based on the latest technical data, Alibaba's primary short-term support level is at HKD 145.6, which was the low point during the late February pullback. If this position breaks down, the next key support would be at HKD 138.2, representing the bottom of the heavy trading zone since Q4 2025. On the resistance side, the stock is currently facing short-term resistance at HKD 157.1; if it successfully breaks through this level, the next resistance will be at HKD 165.2, the high point of the early February rebound and the area where multiple moving averages are located.

Correlation analysis between column viewpoints and recent trends

February 10th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong Exchanges, Sunny Optical, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Kuaishou, Alibaba

Reviewing Simon's perspective from the February 10 [HKEX Podcast], he pointed out at that time that Alibaba benefited from the explosive growth of Qwen, and market investors were generally optimistic about its subsequent performance, predicting the stock price would rise to the range of 165-170 yuan this week. Comparing with the current market situation, Alibaba’s share price has retreated from around 165 yuan in early February to the present 149.9 yuan, a decrease of about 9%, mainly due to the overall market correction and profit-taking. However, Simon’s target range of 165-170 yuan closely matches the resistance level 2 (165.2 yuan) in the current technical data, indicating that this area remains a key resistance point for market consensus. Simon also mentioned that some investors in the CBBC (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts) market held bull contracts with a call price of 140 yuan as part of their strategy. In line with the latest recommendations for bull products, UBS bull contract (69157) $UB#ALIBARC2607U.C (69157.HK)$ with a call price of 144 yuan and J.P. Morgan bull contract (55001) $JP#ALIBARC2612K.C (55001.HK)$ with a call price of 144.5 yuan, both above the 140-yuan level, reflecting that as the share price adjusts, investors are correspondingly increasing the call prices of their bull contracts to balance risk and return.

Simon’s technical analysis at that time suggested that Alibaba’s short-term resistance level was approximately 168 yuan. If this level is broken through, the share price could further rise to 173.5 yuan. Notably, 168 yuan is also the midline position of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. Recently, Alibaba’s share price fell back from the 168-yuan level and is currently still below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, consistent with Simon’s observation that “the share price consistently runs below the midline of the Bollinger Bands.” Successfully breaking through 168 yuan would mean surpassing the midline of the Bollinger Bands, providing a positive signal for future trends. From the perspective of deploying bull contracts, Simon recommends choosing products with a call price below 147 yuan to effectively reduce investment risks. Comparing with the latest bull products, J.P. Morgan bull contract (55001) with a call price of 144.5 yuan and UBS bull contract (69157) with a call price of 144 yuan both align with Simon’s risk management advice, reflecting the practicality of his column’s views and product design.

January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, Alibaba

Reviewing Niki’s perspective from January 28 [BOC Guest], where Niki, Director at BOC International, highlighted that Alibaba is one of the most outstanding leading tech stocks. At the beginning of the year, the share price was around 140 yuan, and by then it had risen to between 172-173 yuan. Compared to the current share price of 149.9 yuan, it has fallen by about 13% from its peak but remains up by approximately 7% compared to the beginning of the year at 140 yuan, indicating a still-positive medium-to-long-term trend. Niki mentioned several fundamental positive factors that remain applicable today:

First, the market is watching the progress of the company's spin-off of its semiconductor business for listing. Although no specific updates have been announced recently, this potential positive factor still provides room for market anticipation. After spinning off the market's hot industry, the valuation can better align with market assessments, further enhancing the company's overall value. This expectation provides medium-to-long-term support for the share price and is one of the reasons why funds are attracted to buy at lower levels during recent price pullbacks.

Second, the discount event for Ele.me under Alibaba has come to an end. This factor has gradually been reflected in the share price, and related losses will not affect the company in the short term, which is conducive to the recovery of profitability. Recent analyst reports have also generally focused on changes in Alibaba's core e-commerce business profitability, a factor that will continue to impact share price performance.

Third, the company’s AI business has been integrated into platforms like Fliggy and AutoNavi. This is one of the current focal points in the market, and as the AI concept continues to gain momentum, Alibaba's layout in the AI field will provide more room for valuation imagination. Although the share price has recently pulled back, compared to other tech stocks, Alibaba’s AI concept has yet to be fully priced in, offering potential catalysts for future rebounds.

The call warrants recommended by Niki at that time can refer to 22984 $BIALIBA@EC2604D.C (22984.HK)$ , with an exercise price of 207.19 yuan, expiring around mid-April this year, offering leverage of about 8 times; put warrants can refer to 21943, with an exercise price of 144.09 yuan, expiring in mid-June this year, with leverage of about 5 times. Comparing with the current market situation, the exercise price of 207.19 yuan for 22984 is far higher than the current price, making it an out-of-the-money warrant suitable for investors who are bullish on a significant rebound in the share price over the medium term; whereas for 21943 $BIALIBA@EP2606B.P (21943.HK)$ The exercise price of 144.09 yuan is close to the current support level of 145.6 yuan, making it an at-the-money product suitable for short-term bearish strategies, reflecting that Niki's product recommendations cater to deployment needs under different market conditions.

In terms of market news, Alibaba has continued to see positive developments. In addition to the progress in its AI business mentioned above, the company is continuously advancing its business restructuring, and the market holds expectations for a revaluation of its core e-commerce and cloud businesses. Although the share price has recently pulled back from its highs, the fundamental positive trend remains unchanged, providing long-term investors with buying opportunities.

Reviewing the product mentioned in this column on February 23, its performance over the following two days confirmed the high sensitivity of warrants and bull/bear certificates. During those two days, Alibaba’s stock price fell by 1.51%, driving significant gains in several bearish products: J.P. Morgan Bear Certificate (55314) $JP#ALIBARP2812J.P (55314.HK)$ and UBS Bear Certificate (55617) $UB#ALIBARP2812G.P (55617.HK)$ rose by 15% and 21%, respectively; DBS Put Warrant (20535) and BOC Put Warrant (20584) also increased by 8% and 7%, respectively, fully demonstrating the hedging value and leverage characteristics of derivatives in a falling market.

Under the current market conditions, investors can choose from the following products based on their outlook for the market. If optimistic about Alibaba holding above the support level and breaking upward, consider call warrants or bull certificates. HSBC Call Warrant (20032) with an exercise price of 178.88 yuan offers 9.9x leverage and the lowest implied volatility among similar products, making it suitable for capturing potential movements as the underlying stock recovers from 157.1 yuan toward the resistance level of 165.2 yuan. BOC Call Warrant (20188), with an exercise price of 178.98 yuan, provides 10.4x leverage and relatively ideal leverage and implied volatility, also being a bullish choice. For investors expecting a strong rebound toward 168 yuan or even higher levels, high-leverage bull certificate products could be considered. J.P. Morgan Bull Certificate (55001) $JP#ALIBARC2612K.C (55001.HK)$ with a stop-loss price of 144.5 yuan and actual leverage of 19.9x, has its stop-loss set below the support level of 147 yuan, aligning with Simon’s risk management principles. UBS Bull Certificate (69157) with a stop-loss price of 144 yuan and actual leverage of 18.7x is another highly leveraged option.

Conversely, if investors believe Alibaba’s rebound will be weak, remaining constrained by the resistance level of 157.1 yuan, and testing the support level of 145.6 yuan or even lower at 138.2 yuan, put warrants or bear certificates could be considered. Guotai Junan Put Warrant (20512), with an exercise price of 129.9 yuan, has the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, making it suitable for bearish medium-term strategies targeting a pullback to the support zone. BOC Put Warrant (20584) $BIALIBA@EP2606A.P (20584.HK)$ also with an exercise price of 129.9 yuan, offers 5.8x leverage and relatively low premium, making it another bearish option. For aggressive short-term bearish traders expecting continued downward pressure on the stock price, bear certificates are a higher-leveraged tool. J.P. Morgan Bear Certificate (55314) with a stop-loss price of 169 yuan offers the highest actual leverage of 7.8x among bear certificates, with the lowest premium, and its stop-loss set above the resistance level of 165.2 yuan, effectively avoiding risks from short-term rebounds. UBS Bear Certificate (55617) $UB#ALIBARP2812G.P (55617.HK)$ with a stop-loss price of 165 yuan, actual leverage of 9.8x, and low premium, is another bearish choice.

Interactive Questions:

1. Regarding Alibaba's short-term trend, do you think it will successfully break through the resistance at 157.1 yuan, or will it first retest the support at 145.6 yuan? Feel free to leave your comments and share your thoughts.

2. Looking back at Alibaba’s decline from the 165 yuan level to the current price, do you consider this a healthy correction or the beginning of a downtrend? We welcome you to share your experience and insights.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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