Core Position of the Call Market for HKEX (388) Based on Data

Technical coordinates

Today's opening price is 415.8 yuan, combined with technical support and resistance levels to define a reasonable activity range: major support at 406 yuan, testing area at 397 yuan, major resistance at 424 yuan, and upside target at 435 yuan. Products with strike prices within the 397 to 435 yuan range correspond to a reasonable volatility range under the current technical framework; products with strike prices above 435 yuan or below 397 yuan fall into the early betting range that deviates from the current technical position, making their price movements more sensitive to deviations in the underlying stock’s technical trend.

Strike price structure range division

Based on the relative relationship between the strike price, current price, and technical levels, all market call warrants are divided into six structural roles. The corresponding strike price ranges and product quantities for each range are as follows: Deep in-the-money (trend/substitute stock) products have strike prices below 397 yuan, located below Technical Support 2, and currently, there are2 productsThese products have higher hedge values, lower actual leverage, and their price movements are highly correlated with the underlying stock, making them suitable as alternative allocation tools for the underlying stock. In-the-money main force (daily swing trading tools) products have exercise prices ranging from 397 to 406 yuan, covering the technical support 2 to support 1 range, but currently there are no products in this range. Slightly in-the-money (balance of efficiency and flexibility) products have exercise prices ranging from 406 to 415.8 yuan, covering the technical support 1 to current price range, and currently there are no products in this range. Near at-the-money (core breakout speculation) products have exercise prices ranging from 415.8 to 424 yuan, covering the current price to technical resistance 1 range, and currently there are7 productsThese products have a hedge value of approximately55%, combining flexibility with correlation to the underlying stock, and are core instruments for speculating on the underlying stock breaking through short-term resistance. Out-of-the-money (target betting) products have exercise prices ranging from 424 to 435 yuan, covering the technical resistance 1 to resistance 2 range, and currently there are no products in this range. Deep out-of-the-money (sentiment/tail risk trading) products have exercise prices above 435 yuan, beyond technical resistance 2, and currently there are95 productsThese products have relatively high actual leverage and significant differences in premium levels, with price fluctuations being extremely sensitive to tail-end movements in the underlying stock, making them sentiment-driven trading instruments.

Street Inventory Distribution Analysis

The total street inventory of call warrants in the entire market is mainly concentrated in the exercise price range of 460 to 530 yuan, corresponding to deep out-of-the-money categories, with no obvious over-concentration at a single exercise price. This concentration range is significantly higher than the current technical resistance 2 (435 yuan), with a distance from the current underlying stock price of about11% to 28%The upside potential reflects that market funds are preemptively betting on the underlying stock breaking through the current technical range and achieving a relatively large increase. It is important to note that such concentration of street-level positions does not have an absolute correlation with the movement of the underlying stock. If the underlying stock fails to reach this price range subsequently, related products will face the risk of continuous time value decay, and the high leverage attribute will amplify losses caused by price fluctuations.

Analysis of trading distribution

The most active trading range for the day was also concentrated in the deep out-of-the-money interval between 460 and 495, accounting for more than80%, with trading activities basically located outside the current technical activity range. Among them, the strike price range of 460 to 470 shows characteristics of 'high trading volume, moderate street-level positions,' corresponding to short-term trading demand from operational funds; whereas the strike price range of 520 to 530 exhibits the phenomenon of 'high street-level positions, low trading volume,' representing typical wait-and-see street-level positions, reflecting that related funds are primarily focused on medium- to long-term scenario bets with lower short-term trading intentions. Overall, the current focus of market participants' trading clearly leans toward preemptively positioning for unexpected upside movements in the underlying stock, with product trading activity within technically reasonable ranges being relatively low.

Competitiveness analysis of terms

Considering technical space, street-level position density, and trading efficiency, products in the near at-the-money range with a strike price of 415.8 to 424 possess relatively structural efficiency in terms. These products generally have premiums below2%, implied volatility remains around31%, with actual leverage approximately4 times, which aligns well with the technical space remaining until the underlying stock reaches resistance levels, and offers sufficient trading liquidity, making it suitable for traders focusing on short-term breakout scenarios. Meanwhile, products with far out-of-the-money strike prices ranging from 460 to 495, although offering actual leverage typically reaching11 to 12 times, but its premium level exceeds12%, requiring the underlying stock to rise more than 10% to break even, which shows a significant gap compared to the current technical target of 435 yuan. The cost and technical potential are mismatched, resulting in relatively low structural efficiency. Implied volatility for other products with higher strike prices has further increased to35%above, leading to faster time value decay and weaker structural competitiveness.

Range-representative products

This selection uses products within two market-focused ranges as structural examples. These examples do not constitute product recommendations. Investors should be mindful of the terms and market risks associated with these products. For near-parity range reference, see the BOC-issued $BI-HKEX@EC2706A.C (23430.HK)$ product, with a strike price of419.08 yuan, expiring on June 23, 2027, offering an actual leverage of4.2 times, with a premium of1.3%The limitation lies in the longer remaining maturity, with a relatively slow time decay but lower leverage, resulting in weaker sensitivity to short-term fluctuations of the underlying stock. The active trading range for deep out-of-the-money options can refer to J.P. Morgan's issued $JP-HKEX@EC2606A.C (23446.HK)$ product, with a strike price of494.38 yuan, expiration date June 1, 2026, actual leverage 12.1 times, with a premium of19.5%. Its limitation is the high premium; the underlying stock needs to rise cumulatively by more than 20% to cover costs. If the underlying stock does not reach the strike price before expiration, the product will face the risk of total loss.

Structural Risk Summary

The current maximum structural risk is concentrated in the deep out-of-the-money range between strike prices of 460 yuan and 530 yuan, where the open interest exceeds overall levels by over 70%, and the corresponding target price of the underlying stock is significantly higher than the current technical upward-looking range. If the underlying stock fails to break through the technical resistance at 435 yuan subsequently or even drops below the support level of 406 yuan, such highly leveraged, high-premium, deep out-of-the-money call warrants will face dual pressures of rapid time value erosion and implied volatility contraction, leading to a price retracement much sharper than products closer to the current price.

Market Condition Summary

Open interest and trading volume in the deep out-of-the-money range have accumulated earlier than expected, reflecting market speculation on an unexpected breakout rally, but with relatively high structural risks.

Product Picks:

$BI-HKEX@EC2706A.C (23430.HK)$

Strike Price: 419.08 yuan

Expiration Date: June 23, 2027

Effective Leverage: 4.2x

Suitable Scenario: Prefer medium to long-term investment, no need for frequent trading. Suitable as a defensive position in asset allocation or as a conservative choice in leverage tools.

$SG-HKEX@EC2605B.C (23464.HK)$

Strike Price: 464.19 yuan

Expiration Date: 2026-05-29

Effective Leverage: 11.8x

$HU-HKEX@EC2605A.C (23468.HK)$

Strike Price: 464.19 yuan

Expiration Date: 2026-05-29

Effective Leverage: 12.5x

Suitable scenario: If you prefer high-leverage products, SocGen 23464 or Huatai 23468 would be more appropriate. However, they have shorter maturities and higher risks, making them suitable for short-term speculation or experienced investors with a clear market view.

Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice. This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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