[Cross-Market Synergy] Hong Kong-listed metal and gold sectors soar collectively! Can we expect a positive opening for mainland China's A-share market tomorrow?

On February 23, the second trading day of the Year of the Horse, Hong Kong stocks in the non-ferrous metals and gold sectors collectively surged, with active market trading and strong performance from multiple key stocks within the sectors.

As of the time of writing, $TONGGUAN GOLD (00340.HK)$ surged 10.69%, $CHIFENG GOLD (06693.HK)$ rose 8.12%, $GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ climbed 7.59%, Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) gained 7.14%, Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) increased by 7.1%, China Gold International (02099.HK) advanced 6.35%, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) rose 6.07%, Shandong Gold (01787.HK) gained 5.71%, and Zijin Mining (02899.HK) climbed 5.53%.

Analysts pointed out that the logic behind this round of market rally is clear, with the core factor being the ongoing catalyzation of gold's safe-haven attribute as 'hard currency,' driven by multiple positive factors resonating to push the sector higher.

First, there is the sharp rise in geopolitical risks.Satellite images show a surge in the number of US fighter jets in the Middle East. The US has deployed more than 60 military aircraft at the Muwaffiq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which could become a key hub for potential US strikes against Iran.

On February 22 local time, a senior US official revealed that if Iran submits a detailed nuclear agreement draft within the next 48 hours, US negotiators are prepared to hold a new round of talks with Iran on the 27th in Geneva. The official stated that the current diplomatic efforts might be the last chance given to Iran by President Trump before launching large-scale US-Israeli joint military actions. The Trump administration is awaiting Iran's proposal.

The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East continues to fuel safe-haven buying demand for gold, driving prices steadily higher. As of press time on February 23, spot gold stood at $5,170.2 per ounce, up 1.22% for the day.

In addition to geopolitical tensions, Trump's reintroduction of tariffs has also triggered a rise in safe-haven sentiment, becoming another key factor supporting higher gold prices.

According to reports, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that the U.S. government's imposition of large-scale tariffs was "overreaching," Trump immediately issued a new executive order, announcing a 10% import tariff on goods from all countries and regions starting February 24, 2026. On February 21, Trump further announced raising the rate of this newly imposed "global import tariff" from 10% to 15%.

The back-and-forth in policy has heightened market uncertainty about trade prospects, prompting investors to rush for safe-haven assets. Analysts at ANZ Research noted in their report that Trump’s latest actions have reignited trade tensions, which could stimulate safe-haven buying and support gold and silver prices.

Looking ahead, market participants generally hold a bullish view on the future trajectory of gold prices.

In its latest *Insights* report, UBS Group raised its gold price target to $6,200 per ounce, primarily driven by geopolitical risks and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

On February 23, Zhang Dexi, Chairman of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, said during the Lunar New Year opening ceremony of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange that recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed gold prices higher. Gold has already built a solid foundation over the past period, rising from more than $3,000 per ounce to over $5,000. Currently, gold is still in the early to middle stages of a bull market. If war eventually breaks out, after a slight adjustment, gold prices will likely climb again, with a strong chance of challenging $6,000 per ounce in the second or third quarter.

Additionally, Zhang Dexi mentioned that the participation of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in the newly established Hong Kong Gold Central Clearing System will help improve delivery reliability. The interconnection between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong gold markets is now within reach. The central clearing system established by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is expected to reduce gold trading costs while enhancing stability and security.

It is worth noting that the A-share market will welcome the first trading day of the Lunar Year of the Horse tomorrow (February 24). During the Spring Festival holiday, most individual stocks in the Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metals sector gained, with overall sentiment and capital flows in the sector positively influencing related sectors in the A-share market. Whether this positive momentum translates into a spillover effect when the A-share market opens post-holiday remains to be seen.

Author: Pingzi

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