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How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Feb 13 09:03

[Warrant Perspective] The trading range of the Hang Seng Index is clear, how to determine the short-term market direction?

On February 12th, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The day closed at 27,032.54 points, down 0.86% in a single day, with a trading volume of 238.705 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 4.1%, and the overall trend remained relatively flat, staying within the recent range-bound movement.
From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index RSI is at 55, within the neutral zone, showing no overbought or oversold signals; the MACD indicates a sell signal, the Bollinger Bands show a sell signal, while the Ichimoku Cloud gives a buy signal. The divergence among indicators corresponds to the consolidating price action seen on February 12th.
On February 12th, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The closing price for the day was 27,032.54 points, a single-day drop of 0.86%, with a turnover of 238.705 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 4.1%, and overall performance remained relatively flat, staying within the recent trading range. From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index RSI is at 55, in the neutral zone, without any overbought or oversold signals. The MACD signal indicates sell, Bollinger Bands show a sell signal, while the Ichimoku Cloud gives a buy signal. With conflicting indicators, this corresponds to the consolidation trend on February 12th. In terms of support and resistance, the Hang Seng Index's short-term support levels are at 26,623 points and 25,944 points, with resistance levels at 27,568 points and 28,121 points. The key focus going forward will be whether it can stabilize near the 27,500-point resistance level. A breakout could open up further upward potential, but losing support below may extend the consolidation period. Blue-chip stocks also showed mixed performance on February 12, with technical signals categorized into buy, neutral, and sell. Here’s a quick summary for reference: 1. Buy signal stocks (4 stocks): $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 535.5 yuan, with an RSI of 25 in the oversold zone. The technical signal strongly suggests buying (strength 10), indicating potential bottom formation after a sharp decline. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 84.85 yuan, with an RSI of only 21, indicating severe oversold conditions. Buy signal strength is 9. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 414.0 yuan,...
In terms of support and resistance levels, short-term support for the Hang Seng Index stands at 26,623 points and 25,944 points, while resistance levels are at 27,568 points and 28,121 points. Key focus going forward will be whether the index can stabilize above the resistance near 27,500 points. A breakout could open up further upside potential, but failure to hold support below may extend the sideways consolidation.
On February 12th, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The closing price for the day was 27,032.54 points, a single-day drop of 0.86%, with a turnover of 238.705 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 4.1%, and overall performance remained relatively flat, staying within the recent trading range. From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index RSI is at 55, in the neutral zone, without any overbought or oversold signals. The MACD signal indicates sell, Bollinger Bands show a sell signal, while the Ichimoku Cloud gives a buy signal. With conflicting indicators, this corresponds to the consolidation trend on February 12th. In terms of support and resistance, the Hang Seng Index's short-term support levels are at 26,623 points and 25,944 points, with resistance levels at 27,568 points and 28,121 points. The key focus going forward will be whether it can stabilize near the 27,500-point resistance level. A breakout could open up further upward potential, but losing support below may extend the consolidation period. Blue-chip stocks also showed mixed performance on February 12, with technical signals categorized into buy, neutral, and sell. Here’s a quick summary for reference: 1. Buy signal stocks (4 stocks): $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 535.5 yuan, with an RSI of 25 in the oversold zone. The technical signal strongly suggests buying (strength 10), indicating potential bottom formation after a sharp decline. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 84.85 yuan, with an RSI of only 21, indicating severe oversold conditions. Buy signal strength is 9. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 414.0 yuan,...
Key blue chips also showed divergent performances on February 12, with technical signals divided into buy, neutral, and sell categories, summarized below for quick reference:
1. Buy Signal Stocks (4 stocks): $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 535.5 yuan, RSI at 25 indicates an oversold condition, technical signal strongly suggests buying (strength 10), potentially indicating a bottoming out after excessive decline. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 84.85 yuan, RSI at 21 indicates severe oversold conditions, buy signal strength is 9. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 414.0 yuan, RSI at 44 shows neutral to weak, suggesting possible bottoming out from an excessive decline. $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ Closed at 78.2 yuan, technical signal strongly suggests buying (strength 10), multiple indicators point to severe oversold conditions.
2. Neutral Signal Stocks (2 stocks): $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Closed at 158.6 yuan, RSI48 near neutral, overall technical pattern indicates balance; $AIA (01299.HK)$ Closed at 83.8 yuan, RSI48 neutral, various oscillation indicators mostly neutral, trend relatively stable.
3. Sell signal stocks (4 stocks): $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Closed at 139.5 yuan, RSI65 nearing overbought, strong sell signal (intensity 11); $CCB (00939.HK)$ Closed at 8.08 yuan, RSI66 shows strength but indicates overbought conditions; $PING AN (02318.HK)$ Closed at 71.9 yuan, RSI60 neutral-leaning-strong, some indicators suggest a sell signal; $ICBC (01398.HK)$ Closed at 6.5 yuan, RSI61 neutral-leaning-strong, momentum indicators suggest selling.
Blue chips on February 12 showed expectations of a rebound for oversold stocks and adjustment pressure for strong stocks. Investors should focus on stocks with clear indicator signals.
Review and selection of bull and bear products:
1. Review of previous bull and bear products:
Looking back at the Hang Seng Index-related CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts) recommended on February 6, 2026, their performance was remarkable: $UB-HSI @EC2605B.C (23091.HK)$ A two-day increase of 21%, $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$ A two-day increase of 22%; two bull contracts issued by Bank of China ( $BI#HSI RC28086.C (63489.HK)$ 、 $BI#HSI RC28081.C (63488.HK)$ ) both surged 55% over two days. During the same period, the Hang Seng Index rose only 2.35%, demonstrating the significant leverage effect of CBBCs.
On February 12th, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The closing price for the day was 27,032.54 points, a single-day drop of 0.86%, with a turnover of 238.705 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 4.1%, and overall performance remained relatively flat, staying within the recent trading range. From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index RSI is at 55, in the neutral zone, without any overbought or oversold signals. The MACD signal indicates sell, Bollinger Bands show a sell signal, while the Ichimoku Cloud gives a buy signal. With conflicting indicators, this corresponds to the consolidation trend on February 12th. In terms of support and resistance, the Hang Seng Index's short-term support levels are at 26,623 points and 25,944 points, with resistance levels at 27,568 points and 28,121 points. The key focus going forward will be whether it can stabilize near the 27,500-point resistance level. A breakout could open up further upward potential, but losing support below may extend the consolidation period. Blue-chip stocks also showed mixed performance on February 12, with technical signals categorized into buy, neutral, and sell. Here’s a quick summary for reference: 1. Buy signal stocks (4 stocks): $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 535.5 yuan, with an RSI of 25 in the oversold zone. The technical signal strongly suggests buying (strength 10), indicating potential bottom formation after a sharp decline. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 84.85 yuan, with an RSI of only 21, indicating severe oversold conditions. Buy signal strength is 9. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 414.0 yuan,...
Friendly reminder: CBBCs are highly volatile, and while they offer profit opportunities, they also carry a certain level of risk. Investors should operate based on their own risk tolerance.
2. Selected CBBC Products:
Based on the Hang Seng Index trend and product data, two products with relatively high cost-performance have been selected for investors' reference:
The first one: BOC Call Warrant (23128), with a leverage of 13.8 and a strike price of 28,341 points. Its core advantage is having the lowest implied volatility and relatively higher leverage, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about the Hang Seng Index breaking through resistance levels.
Second one: $BP-HSI @EP2605A.P (23944.HK)$ , with a leverage of 12.6 and a strike price of 25,000 points, offering the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it suitable for investors expecting short-term fluctuations in the Hang Seng Index and needing to hedge risks.
On February 12th, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The closing price for the day was 27,032.54 points, a single-day drop of 0.86%, with a turnover of 238.705 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 4.1%, and overall performance remained relatively flat, staying within the recent trading range. From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index RSI is at 55, in the neutral zone, without any overbought or oversold signals. The MACD signal indicates sell, Bollinger Bands show a sell signal, while the Ichimoku Cloud gives a buy signal. With conflicting indicators, this corresponds to the consolidation trend on February 12th. In terms of support and resistance, the Hang Seng Index's short-term support levels are at 26,623 points and 25,944 points, with resistance levels at 27,568 points and 28,121 points. The key focus going forward will be whether it can stabilize near the 27,500-point resistance level. A breakout could open up further upward potential, but losing support below may extend the consolidation period. Blue-chip stocks also showed mixed performance on February 12, with technical signals categorized into buy, neutral, and sell. Here’s a quick summary for reference: 1. Buy signal stocks (4 stocks): $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 535.5 yuan, with an RSI of 25 in the oversold zone. The technical signal strongly suggests buying (strength 10), indicating potential bottom formation after a sharp decline. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 84.85 yuan, with an RSI of only 21, indicating severe oversold conditions. Buy signal strength is 9. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 414.0 yuan,...
On February 12th, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The closing price for the day was 27,032.54 points, a single-day drop of 0.86%, with a turnover of 238.705 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 4.1%, and overall performance remained relatively flat, staying within the recent trading range. From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index RSI is at 55, in the neutral zone, without any overbought or oversold signals. The MACD signal indicates sell, Bollinger Bands show a sell signal, while the Ichimoku Cloud gives a buy signal. With conflicting indicators, this corresponds to the consolidation trend on February 12th. In terms of support and resistance, the Hang Seng Index's short-term support levels are at 26,623 points and 25,944 points, with resistance levels at 27,568 points and 28,121 points. The key focus going forward will be whether it can stabilize near the 27,500-point resistance level. A breakout could open up further upward potential, but losing support below may extend the consolidation period. Blue-chip stocks also showed mixed performance on February 12, with technical signals categorized into buy, neutral, and sell. Here’s a quick summary for reference: 1. Buy signal stocks (4 stocks): $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 535.5 yuan, with an RSI of 25 in the oversold zone. The technical signal strongly suggests buying (strength 10), indicating potential bottom formation after a sharp decline. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 84.85 yuan, with an RSI of only 21, indicating severe oversold conditions. Buy signal strength is 9. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 414.0 yuan,...
With blue chips diverging, do you prefer to buy oversold stocks showing buy signals or avoid strong stocks showing sell signals?Come share your thoughts in the comment section.
For more analysis, be sure to follow Jenny's daily updates on "HK Stock Warrants"!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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