Hong Kong-listed AI 'twin leaders' see active trading! How to position in the AI sector for the Year
Short-term Technical Analysis and Warrant Strategies for Alibaba
Market Analysis as of February 11, 2026
I. Technical Analysis and Key Level Assessment: Consolidation Amid Low Volume Awaits Direction
Recently, the share price of Alibaba-W (09988.HK) has shown an upward oscillating pattern, but market trading sentiment has become cautious. As of February 10, the stock closed at HKD 160.5, up 1.65% for the day, while trading volume shrank for two consecutive days, reflecting strong market观望ahead of the upcoming holidays. From a technical indicator perspective, the current share price is hovering near the short-term moving average, with the 14-day RSI at 51, in the neutral range, indicating neither bulls nor bears have gained a clear advantage. On February 11, the latest share price was HKD 161.9, up 0.87%.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Analysis (Based on Technical Indicators and Market Consensus):
- Primary Resistance Level: HKD 168. This level represents not only the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands but also aligns closely with previous high-volume consolidation zones. If the price can break through this level with increased volume, further upside potential may open up, targeting HKD 173.5 (secondary resistance).
- Primary Support Level: HKD 152.5, followed by HKD 147.5. These levels correspond to the lower boundary of the recent consolidation zone and the initial breakout platform at the start of 2026. A pullback to this range might attract technical buying interest.
In summary, based on technical signals, the current stock price is within the core oscillation range of HKD 152.5–168. A breakout will require higher trading volumes. Investors should closely monitor the contention around the HKD 168 level; if it effectively breaks through, the short-term technical outlook will turn optimistic.
II. Market News Integration: AI Business Catalyzes Short-Term Sentiment
Recent fundamental news about Alibaba has focused on the progress of its AI business, providing positive support for market sentiment:
1. Explosive Growth of the “Qwen” APP Users: The Lunar New Year promotional campaign (“RMB 3 Billion Free Card”) drove a 7.3-fold increase in Qwen APP's daily active users (DAU), reaching 58.48 million on the first day of the event, topping Apple’s App Store free charts. The campaign significantly raised market attention on the commercialization potential of Alibaba’s AI products.
2. Technological Product Iterations: On February 10, the company launched its new-generation image model, Qwen-Image-2.0, showcasing technological advantages in niche areas like Chinese character rendering, further strengthening its competitiveness in the AI sector.
However, there are also potential concerns in the market. Some analysts pointed out that AI technology stocks may face policy uncertainties such as new tax systems, and high-profit businesses could be financially impacted. Overall, AI advancements provide a catalyst for short-term stock prices, but the long-term trend still requires observation of the macro environment and overall profit recovery of companies.
【HKEX Podcast】Viewpoint: AI Business Boosts Sentiment, Key Levels Become Focus
In the February 11 episode, market analysis indicated that Alibaba's stock price increase was mainly driven by the explosive growth in users of its AI product 'Tongyi Qianwen,' which boosted market confidence in the commercialization potential of the company’s AI business. Host Simon analyzed that the market generally expects the stock price to test the range of HKD 165-170 this week, but there are concerns over the lack of synchronized increase in trading volume.
The technical viewpoint presented in the program aligns closely with our analysis: HKD 168 has been clearly identified as a key short-term resistance level, which is also the middle band of the Bollinger Bands; whether it breaks through will be pivotal for subsequent trends. Regarding the structured products market, the show revealed that some investors hold bullish contracts with a forced call level as low as HKD 140, reflecting optimism about the company’s long-term prospects. However, the program also rationally suggested that, considering the current primary support at HKD 152.5, investors should set the forced call price below HKD 147 (below the second support) to allow sufficient buffer when choosing bullish contracts to manage risks.
【BOC Guest Column】Viewpoint: Fundamental Positives and Application of Structured Products
In the January 28 column interview, Niki, Director at BOC International, provided an analysis of Alibaba's positive factors from a fundamental perspective:
Business spin-offs enhance valuation: Plans to spin off semiconductor operations via IPO will help the market independently and more fully value that segment.
Improved competitive landscape: Regulatory guidance against platforms like 'Ele.me' engaging in price wars could reduce losses in related businesses.
AI-driven growth: AI technology has been integrated into core businesses like Fliggy and AutoNavi, becoming a crucial driver for future growth.
Niki also observed that despite the stock price having accumulated certain gains since the beginning of the year, investor interest in Alibaba-related derivatives remains high. Under the current market conditions, she recommended paying attention to call warrants with a strike price of HKD 207.19 (product code not provided) and put warrants with a strike price of HKD 144.09 (code 21943) for directional trading or hedging. This view echoes BOC International's recent suggestions in another market commentary, which also mentioned focusing on call warrant 24908 and put warrant 21943 when the stock price consolidates around HKD 160. $BIALIBA@EC2608C.C (24908.HK)$$BIALIBA@EP2606B.P (21943.HK)$
III. Review of Warrant Products: Leverage Effect Highlights Tool Advantages
Based on recent market operations, warrant products have demonstrated their flexibility in a volatile market. Below is a review of the performance two days after the products mentioned on February 6 (the underlying stock rose 3.55% during the same period):
- UBS Bull Certificate (product code not provided): Increased by 28%, significant leverage effect.
Core Advantage Analysis of Warrant Products:
Compared to direct investment in underlying stocks, warrants allow tracking of stock performance with a lower capital threshold, and the maximum loss is generally limited to the invested principal without generating additional liabilities. However, it should be noted that Bull/Bear Certificates have a mandatory call feature, meaning if the underlying stock hits the call price, the product will terminate early; while Warrants (Call Options) do not have this mechanism but are significantly affected by time decay and implied volatility. Investors should weigh the characteristics of different products based on their risk tolerance.
IV. Recommended Warrant Products for This Period: Analysis of Terms and Key Levels
The following products are filtered based on the current technical levels (support at 152.5/147.5 yuan, resistance at 168/173.5 yuan), with emphasis on clarity of terms and risk alignment:
Bullish direction choices
1. BOC Call Warrant (22622)$BIALIBA@EC2605C.C (22622.HK)$
- Key Features: Exercise price at 187.09 yuan, leverage approximately 7.7 times, making it the warrant with the lowest premium in the recommended list.
- Correlation Analysis: The exercise price is about 16.6% out-of-the-money compared to the current stock price, suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through the resistance level of 168 yuan and move higher. The high leverage requires a strong bullish outlook.
2. Societe Generale Bull Certificate (55811)$SG#ALIBARC26103.C (55811.HK)$
- Key Features: Recovery price at 152.5 yuan, leverage approximately 16.1 times, with the lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage.
- Correlation Analysis: The recovery price coincides with the primary support level at 152.5 yuan; the risk lies in mandatory product recall if the stock price falls and hits this level. Suitable for investors who believe the stock will find support above 152.5 yuan and rebound.
Bearish or hedging direction choices
3. UBS Group Put Warrant (21397)$UBALIBA@EP2604C.P (21397.HK)$
- Key Features: Strike price at 140.88 HKD, leverage approximately 9.3 times, relatively low premium.
- Correlation Analysis: The strike price is close to the second support level below 147.5 HKD. If the stock price breaks below the primary support level, the value of this product may increase. Suitable for hedging or expressing short-term cautious views.
4. J.P. Morgan Bear Certificate (63556)$JP#ALIBARP2809F.P (63556.HK)$
- Key Features: Call price at 178 HKD, leverage approximately 9.4 times, high effective leverage with low premium.
- Correlation Analysis: The call price lies between the resistance level of 173.5 HKD and 192.67 HKD (52-week high), providing a wider buffer zone for bearish investors.
Selection Considerations: Bull/Bear Certificates are suitable for markets with clear direction and higher volatility but require close attention to the risk of being called back; Warrants work well in volatile markets but require monitoring time decay. All products must adhere to stop-loss discipline.
Interactive Questions
Poll Question: What’s your view on Alibaba-W (09988.HK)’s price movement over the next week?
A. Break above the 168 HKD resistance, aiming to challenge 173 HKD
B. Continue oscillating within the 152–168 HKD range
C. Pullback testing support below 152 yuan
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
#Alibaba #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportResistanceLevels #Warrants #BullBearCertificates #ImpliedVolatility #Qwen #AI #HongKongStocks #Leverage
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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