February 10th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong Exchanges, Sunny Optical, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Kuaishou, Alibaba

February 10th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong Exchanges, Sunny Optical, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Kuaishou, Alibaba

1. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$: Bullish investors are looking at a rebound to 27,300 points, choosing to hold bullish warrants overnight (stop-loss level at 25,500 points); bearish investors, due to shrinking market turnover, plan to short-sell when the index rises to near resistance (stop-loss level at 27,450 points).

Simon: Today, the Hang Seng Index showed a slight upward trend. Based on the closing price, the Hang Seng Index closed at 27,183 points, with an increase of about 0.5% for the day, which was relatively limited. Trading volume was weak, showing varying degrees of contraction compared to the previous 1-2 trading days and the past 5-10 trading days, becoming a significant characteristic of the current market.

Market sentiment is divided between bulls and bears. Bullish investors believe that the Hang Seng Index could rebound to 27,300 points, which is just over a hundred points away from the current closing price. Therefore, these investors are choosing to deploy bullish warrants. However, given the limited upside potential, market confidence in further upward movement remains weak. On the other hand, bearish investors, based on the continuous reduction in trading volume, believe that if the Hang Seng Index continues to rise or touches key highs, it will be an opportunity to short-sell, and they tend to focus on put warrants.

From a technical analysis perspective, the current market is dominated by 'sell' signals, with support for the Hang Seng Index around 26,661 points and resistance near 27,700 points. This resistance level is higher than the 27,300 points some investors are watching, bringing a bit of optimism to the market. Currently, there is a wide selection of bullish warrants available in the market, with noticeable differences in leverage and product terms across various strike prices. Bullish warrants near the 26,000-point mark show good leverage performance, with some products reaching up to 24x or nearly 25x leverage, while the average leverage level is around 23x. Even more conservative options near 25,800 or 25,900 points offer leverage above 20x. Warrants closer to 26,200 points have even higher leverage, reaching 26-27x.

Overall, when investors choose bull certificates, those looking to minimize recovery risk can opt for products closer to the lower support levels, sacrificing some leverage but effectively reducing the likelihood of hitting the recovery threshold. For those seeking high leverage, they may choose products with higher proximity pricing. Investors should balance their needs between leverage and risk based on their investment objectives. $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$$BI#HSI RC28081.C (63488.HK)$$UB-HSI @EC2605B.C (23091.HK)$$BI#HSI RC28086.C (63489.HK)$

1. Hong Kong Exchanges (00388.HK) $HKEX (00388.HK)$: Has the stock price bottomed out? Where is the effective support? Some investors in the warrant market are positioning themselves in bull contracts (with a stop-loss level of HK$386).

Simon: Today, the HKEX stock price slightly declined, continuing the trend of shrinking trading volume, which decreased further compared to yesterday. Over the past two days, the trading volume has significantly dropped compared to previous levels. Despite the stock closing lower, the fluctuation range was small, and the overall trend remained relatively stable. Market investors are widely focused on whether the HKEX stock price has bottomed out and if it will continue to decline. There is also significant demand for determining its short-term support level.

From a technical analysis perspective, the short-term trend of HKEX remains unclear, with bullish and bearish indicators being relatively balanced, making it difficult to predict future movements definitively. In terms of support levels, the first short-term support for HKEX is at 409 HKD, and currently, the stock price remains stable around the 400 HKD level. If this support is broken, the stock price is likely to drop to 393 HKD, breaking through the psychological 400 HKD barrier. However, it is still premature to conclude that the price will fall below 400 HKD, making 409 HKD the critical support level to watch.

In the warrant market, some investors have positioned themselves in bull contracts for Hong Kong Exchanges. From an investment safety perspective, investors in bull contracts can prioritize products with a stop-loss level below HK$393. Currently, there are different levels of Hong Kong Exchanges bull contracts available in the market, such as those with stop-loss levels of HK$380 and HK$388. Investors can combine product terms to select targets that match their investment preferences. $UB#HKEX RC2709Q.C (64102.HK)$$JP#HKEX RC2805E.C (57624.HK)$$BI-HKEX@EC2605A.C (23431.HK)$$HS-HKEX@EC2605B.C (23458.HK)$

1. Sunny Optical (02382.HK) $SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$: Is HK$54 an effective support level? Investors pay attention to Put warrants for hedging operations.

Simon: Sunny Optical closed slightly higher today at 59 HKD. However, from the overall recent trend, the stock price has been hovering at low levels for an extended period and gradually moving downward over the past few days, approaching the lower Bollinger Band. The price range around fifty HKD has consolidated for some time. Reviewing historical trends, Sunny Optical experienced similar low-level consolidations in mid-January and late January this year, both followed by declines. Whether this consolidation will lead to another drop requires close attention from investors.

Regarding investors' concerns about whether 54 HKD is a support level, the analysis shows that 54 HKD offers some support, but it is not the first short-term support level. The first short-term support for Sunny Optical is at 57.4 HKD. If this level is breached, the stock price will drop to 53.9 HKD, which means the 54 HKD support level will only be tested after 57.4 HKD is broken. Thus, 57.4 HKD becomes the critical level to watch closely.

In the warrant market, some investors hold a cautious attitude towards the future performance of Sunny Optical and choose to position themselves in Put warrants for hedging operations. Notably, from a technical signal perspective, Sunny Optical currently shows a strong buy signal with bullish indicators being relatively dominant. However, technical indicators are only for reference. The current short-term market sentiment leans towards caution. If investors believe the stock price may still decline, they can deploy relevant hedging products around the aforementioned support levels. $SG-SUNY@EC2604A.C (17228.HK)$

1. Yanzhou Energy (01171.HK) $YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)$: The stock price continues to break new highs; can it stabilize above HK$13? Some investors are eyeing call warrants with an exercise price of HK$14.

Simon: Yanzhou Energy's recent short-term performance has been impressive, with the stock price continuously breaking new highs. During today's session, the stock reached a high of 12.91 dollars, nearing the 13-dollar mark. However, trading volume did not significantly increase, remaining at par with previous levels. This characteristic warrants attention from investors. Market participants are generally focused on whether, if the uptrend continues, Yanzhou Energy’s stock price can successfully stabilize and break through the 13-dollar level.

Technically speaking, HK$13 is a key resistance level for Yanzhou Energy. If this level is successfully broken through, the stock price could further rise towards HK$14.1, which has also increased market attention on Yanzhou Energy's call warrants. Some investors are already paying attention to call warrant products with an exercise price of HK$14. Currently, there are several options in the market with exercise prices at HK$14 or higher, and these products will expire around mid-May, about three months from now. However, considering Yanzhou Energy's cumulative increase in this round, if the stock price subsequently adjusts or moves sideways, time value erosion of these short-dated call warrants will accelerate.

In comparison, call warrant products with exercise prices around HK$15.5 to HK$15.7 will expire in July this year, approximately five months from now, offering a longer time horizon. Even if the stock price moves sideways in the short term, the time value erosion of these products would be relatively lower, giving investors stronger downside protection. However, these products come with relatively lower leverage, around 5.1-5.2 times. Investors can choose targets based on their judgment of Yanzhou Energy’s future movements. If they believe the stock price can break through HK$14 in the short term, they can opt for high-exercise-price products with near-term expiry; if they anticipate potential sideways adjustments in the stock price, long-dated products would be a better choice. $HSYKENR@EC2607A.C (24441.HK)$$SGYKENR@EC2607A.C (21763.HK)$

1. Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$: Investors are optimistic about the stock price target of 80 yuan after the Spring Festival and are holding call warrants with an exercise price of 88.93 yuan.

Simon: Kuaishou-W’s stock price rebounded slightly today. However, looking at the overall trend recently, the stock has been hovering near the bottom of the Bollinger Band, showing a sideways consolidation pattern. Although daily performance seems acceptable, the prolonged low-level consolidation has made the overall performance less than ideal. Some investors remain optimistic about Kuaishou-W’s future trajectory, expecting the stock price to reach 80 dollars post-Chinese New Year (end of February) and are holding call warrants with a strike price of 88.93 dollars.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the first short-term resistance level for Kuaishou-W is 76.9 dollars. If this level is successfully broken, the stock price could rise further to 81.8 dollars. Therefore, if the upward momentum continues, reaching the 80-dollar mark is quite possible, making 76.9 dollars the key resistance level that needs to be broken.

Regarding call warrant strategies, there are currently few options in the market with strike prices near 80 dollars; only one product with a strike price of 81 dollars exists, expiring in August, with about six months remaining. However, its out-of-the-money percentage is relatively high at 16%. For investors preferring closer-to-the-money products, call warrants with strike prices between 75 and 77 dollars are better choices, with 19 such products available, mainly expiring in June and December. For investors planning to trade short-term on Kuaishou-W breaking through the 76.9-dollar resistance level, products with strike prices around 70.5 and 75.9 dollars are more competitive due to their closer-to-the-money nature and deserve special attention. $UBKUASO@EP2606A.P (24517.HK)$

1. Alibaba-W (09988.HK) $BABA-W (09988.HK)$: Benefiting from the surge in Qwen, this week's target is looking at 165-170 yuan; in the CBBC market, some investors hold bullish contracts with a stop-loss level of 140 yuan.

Simon: Today, Alibaba-W showed relatively outstanding performance among various targets, with a daily increase of approximately 1.65%. However, the trading volume did not rise in tandem but instead slightly contracted, and for the past two trading days, the volume has been shrinking. In fact, most targets in today’s Hong Kong stock market saw a slight decline in trading volume. This could be partly due to pre-holiday market sentiment and partly related to overall market conditions. This market characteristic is worth noting for investors.

Benefiting from the surge in Qwen, market investors are generally optimistic about the future trend of Alibaba-W and are confident that the stock price will test the range of 165-170 yuan this week. In the CBBC market, some investors have taken positions by holding bullish contracts with a stop-loss level of 140 yuan. From a technical perspective, Alibaba-W faces short-term resistance around 168 yuan. If this level is broken, the stock price could further rise to 173.5 yuan. Notably, 168 yuan also represents the midline of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, and recently, Alibaba-W's share price has consistently remained below the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Successfully breaking above 168 yuan would indicate a breakout above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, sending a positive signal for future trends.

From the perspective of bullish contract positioning, Alibaba-W currently has support levels at 152.5 yuan and 147.5 yuan. Therefore, it is recommended that investors choose bullish products with a stop-loss level below 147 yuan to effectively reduce investment risk. The market currently offers an ample supply of such bullish contracts, allowing investors to select appropriate targets based on their risk tolerance for positioning. $UB#ALIBARC26087.C (69245.HK)$$UB#ALIBARC2607J.C (55785.HK)$$BIALIBA@EC2608C.C (24908.HK)$$UBALIBA@EC2608B.C (24994.HK)$

Friendly reminder

This article does not constitute any investment advice and is for reference only. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other data, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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