Analysis of Call Warrants Layout for BYD Near Resistance Levels

The current price is 96.75 yuan. Technical analysis shows the main support level at 91.9 yuan (Support 1), with a testing area at 87.3 yuan (Support 2). The primary resistance level is set at 100.4 yuan (Resistance 1), with an upward target of 105.3 yuan (Resistance 2). Based on this, the reasonable activity range is defined as between 91.9 yuan and 100.4 yuan. The current exercise price distribution indicates that operating near the at-the-money range (96.45-100 yuan) falls within the technical scope, while the mid-out-of-the-money range (100-110 yuan) reflects speculative bets on a breakout. The far-out-of-the-money range (above 110 yuan) clearly deviates from the technical framework.

The segmentation by exercise price across all call warrants in the market reveals distinct structural characteristics: there are 15 products in the near-at-the-money range, providing key tools for breakout speculation; 18 products in the moderately out-of-the-money range, which belong to target position betting; and up to 106 products in the far-out-of-the-money range, reflecting emotional trading behavior. Notably, there is a scarcity of in-the-money products, with none available in deep-in-the-money or core in-the-money ranges, indicating issuers' cautious stance on the short-term trend of the underlying stock.

Analysis of the concentration of street-level positions shows a total volume of 1,967.23 million units, highly concentrated in the far-out-of-the-money range, accounting for 97.2%. In contrast, the near-at-the-money range within the technical scope accounts for only 1.1%, and the moderately out-of-the-money range accounts for 1.7%. This distribution suggests that market participants generally adopt aggressive strategies, heavily accumulating far-out-of-the-money call warrants for emotional betting. Excessive concentration in a single range is severe, and the concentrated positions are far from technical resistance levels, indicating that the market is betting on significant breakout moves. However, this structure carries substantial risks; if the underlying stock fails to meet expected gains, far-out-of-the-money warrants may experience rapid value erosion.

Analysis of transaction behavior characteristics shows that of the total turnover of HKD 125,468 thousand, the near-at-the-money range accounts for 50.4%, the far-out-of-the-money range accounts for 33.2%, and the moderately out-of-the-money range accounts for 15.4%. The most active trading occurs in the near-at-the-money range, indicating that operational funds mainly focus on rational trading within the technical activity range. In contrast, the far-out-of-the-money range exhibits a 'high street-level position, relatively low turnover' characteristic, representing wait-and-see positions, reflecting scenario-betting funds in a passive holding state with insufficient continuous buying support.

Evaluation of terms competitiveness shows that the near-at-the-money range averages 6.2x leverage with implied volatility of 39.9%, achieving a good balance between technical space and cost efficiency. Although leverage in the moderately out-of-the-money range increases to 9.5x, volatility rises to 42.0%, maintaining acceptable alignment between cost and technical space. The far-out-of-the-money range offers 7.3x leverage but comes with high implied volatility of 49.6%, indicating that while leverage appears attractive, actual costs are high and severely disconnected from the technical space, resulting in low structural efficiency.

The range represents product examples close to the at-the-money range with $CI-BYD @EC2605B.C (22768.HK)$ as an example, a strike price of 99.11 yuan, and leverage of 6.8 times, categorized as an operational tool within the technical range. For mid-out-of-the-money ranges, $HS-BYD @EC2608A.C (25528.HK)$ serves as an example, with a strike price of 106.98 yuan and leverage of 5.2 times, requiring the underlying stock to break through 110 yuan to realize value. It must be emphasized that these examples merely reflect current market conditions and are not investment advice; investors should be mindful of time value erosion and volatility risks.

Summary of structural risks: The largest structural risk currently lies in far out-of-the-money ranges, where street inventory accounts for over 97%. If the underlying stock fails to achieve the expected significant breakout, these high-premium, high-volatility call warrants may face rapid value evaporation. Particularly if the underlying stock fails to break through the resistance level of 100.4 yuan or even retreats to test the support level at 91.9 yuan, holders of far out-of-the-money warrants will incur the greatest losses.

Market status summary: 'Extremely concentrated far out-of-the-money street inventory, heavy emotionally driven betting, relatively rational but low proportion of operations within the technical range, overall structural risk is high.'

Selected Call Warrant Analysis

UBS Group 23812$UB-BYD @EC2605B.C (23812.HK)$

Strike Price: 99.16 yuan (close to the current price of 96.45 yuan)

expiration date: May 18, 2026 (approximately 3 months remaining)

Actual Leverage: 7.0x

Implied volatility: 39.3% (relatively reasonable)

Street Volume: 1.26% (good liquidity)

Current price: HKD 0.139

Product Features: This warrant is close to the at-the-money range, with relatively low time value decay and moderate leverage ratio, making it suitable for investors optimistic about short-term breakout trends.

BNP Paribas 23835 (Technical Range Operations) $BP-BYD @EC2605B.C (23835.HK)$

Strike Price: RMB 99.16

expiration date: May 18, 2026

Actual Leverage: 6.9 times

Implied volatility：39.5%

Street Volume: 0.76% (Extremely low street inventory)

Current price: RMB 0.14

Product Features: Low street inventory implies relatively light potential selling pressure. Good liquidity makes it suitable for investors with moderate risk appetites.

J.P. Morgan 25786 (Mid-term Option) $JP-BYD @EC2607C.C (25786.HK)$

Strike Price: 98.04 yuan (slightly in-the-money)

expiration date: July 23, 2026 (approximately 5 months remaining)

Actual Leverage: 5.3 times

Implied volatility：40.7%

Street Volume: 0.29% (extremely low street inventory)

Current price: 0.193 yuan

Product Features: The strike price is slightly in-the-money, offering better downside protection; the longer expiration date reduces time decay pressure. A low street inventory means potential selling pressure is light, making it suitable for investors confident in the underlying stock’s movement but seeking to manage risk.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Subscription warrants are high-risk investment products that may lead to the total loss of principal. Before investing, carefully read the listing documents, risk disclosure statements, and relevant terms, and make independent investment decisions based on your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Want more analysis? Be sure to follow 'Hong Kong Warrant Jenny' for daily updates!

Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information provided in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met. A comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be conducted by integrating additional data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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