How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
【🎁Earnings Showdown】SMIC's cautious guidance holds hidden secrets, while Hua Hong’s price hike strategy is aggressive! Who will lead the charge in Hong Kong's "chip" sector rally?
This week, Hong Kong's semiconductor sector is set for significant earnings reports.$SMIC (00981.HK)$(After market close on February 10) and$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$(February 12) will release their Q4 2025 results sequentially!Against the backdrop of global semiconductor supply chain restructuring and accelerated domestic substitution, the performance of these two companies will be a key indicator to assess the competitiveness of China's chip industry! 👇➡️SMIC: The "Flag Bearer" of Domestic Substitution
As the largest and most technologically advanced wafer foundry domestically, SMIC is fully capitalizing on the benefits of switching to a "domestic supply chain."In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 7.8% sequentially to $2.382 billion, with capacity utilization reaching 95.8%, nearing full production; revenue from the Chinese region has risen to 86.2%.
In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 7.8% sequentially to $2.382 billion, with capacity utilization reaching 95.8%, nearing full production; revenue from the Chinese region has risen to 86.2%.However, the company’s outlook for Q4 was unexpectedly cautious: revenue is expected to remain flat or grow by 2% sequentially, with gross margins between 18%-20%.This reflects management's forward-looking concerns:
This reflects management's forward-looking concerns:🔎External pressures:Global memory chips have entered a 'super cycle' driven by AI demand, with prices surging. This could squeeze profits for downstream manufacturers such as smartphone makers and, in turn, pass cost pressures to SMIC's clients (chip design companies).
🔎Internal burdens:Equipment deliveries that were previously postponed are now arriving in bulk. Depreciation costs from new capacity will be concentrated in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, directly eroding gross margins.
Therefore, in this Q4 report, the market will focus on whether the company can strike a balance amid high capacity utilization, industry headwinds, and cost pressures. Will actual results exceed the conservative guidance?Moreover, its breakthroughs in advanced processes (especially those related to AI and HPC) have drawn significant attention. If Q4 earnings exceed expectations or signal advancements in leading-edge processes, the stock price may react quickly.
Moreover, its breakthroughs in advanced processes (especially those related to AI and HPC) have drawn significant attention. If Q4 earnings exceed expectations or signal advancements in leading-edge processes, the stock price may react quickly.➡️Hua Hong Semiconductor: The 'Steady Player' in Specialty Processes
Unlike SMIC’s 'all-around' strategy, Hua Hong Semiconductor focuses on specialty process platforms such as power devices and embedded memory, with a more targeted and flexible approach.The company has recently demonstrated strong momentum:
> Price Increases for Profit Gains:80% of the gross margin improvement in Q3 came from product price hikes, demonstrating its pricing power.
> Capacity Expansion:The rapid ramp-up of Wuxi's new 12-inch fab, along with plans to acquire Huahong Microelectronics (Huali Micro), provides a clear path for future growth.
> Demand Alignment:Deeply tied to high-growth sectors like automotive electronics, industrial control, and AI power management, benefiting from the 'China for China' localization trend.
The market is focusing on whether the benefit from price hikes can continue into the fourth quarter? Is the progress of new capacity ramp-up in line with expectations? Is its earnings story now simpler and clearer, with greater short-term upside potential?One represents the national strategy while balancing in a complex environment; the other focuses on unique tracks and proactively seizes market share!Which of the two stocks will lead the rebound in the AI chip sector after their earnings reports?Join the 'Guess the Price Movement' challenge and show off your insights!![[Clap]This week, Hong Kong's semiconductor sector is set for significant earnings reports.$SMIC (00981.HK)$(After market close on February 10) and$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$(February 12) will release their Q4 2025 results sequentially!Against the backdrop of global semiconductor supply chain restructuring and accelerated domestic substitution, the performance of these two companies will be a key indicator to assess the competitiveness of China's chip industry! 👇 ➡️SMIC: The "Flag Bearer" of Domestic Substitution As the largest and most technologically advanced wafer foundry domestically, SMIC is fully capitalizing on the benefits of switching to a "domestic supply chain."[Clap]In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 7.8% sequentially to $2.382 billion, with capacity utilization reaching 95.8%, nearing full production; revenue from the Chinese region has risen to 86.2%. However, the company’s outlook for Q4 was unexpectedly cautious: revenue is expected to remain flat or grow by 2% sequentially, with gross margins between 18%-20%.[Thinking Face]This reflects management's forward-looking concerns: 🔎External pressures:Global memory chips have entered a 'super cycle' driven by AI demand, with prices surging. This could squeeze profits for downstream manufacturers such as smartphone makers and, in turn, pass cost pressures to SMIC's clients (chip design companies). 🔎Internal burdens:Equipment deliveries that were previously postponed are now arriving in bulk. Depreciation costs from new capacity will be concentrated in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, directly eroding gross margins. Therefore, this quarterly report...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260209/web-1770633482949-npRf5shLeY.png/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
[Prize Activity]🏆 Event One: Big Rally Competition 🎯
Select the stock you believe will have the highest single-day gain after earnings are released. Fellow investors who predict correctly will share the prize.10,000 points!
(For example, if 10 fellow investors guess correctly, each person will receive 1,000 points; activity rewards will be distributed uniformly after this earnings season ends!)
🏆 Activity Two: Speak Your Mind 🎯
Which logic do you value more?
Do you believe in the national strategy and long-term imagination represented by SMIC, or do you favor Huahong Semiconductor's solid profitability improvement in the current cycle?
Leave your choice and analysis in the comments section.Leave a comment (30 words or more) and make it reasonable to qualify for the reward.66 points!
Note: Both Event 1 and Event 2 will end at 9:00 AM Beijing Time on February 11; the statistical gains for SMIC and Huahong are primarily based on their Hong Kong-listed shares; rewards from both events can be stacked and will be distributed uniformly after this earnings season concludes.
The leading domestic chipmakers face an earnings test—how to deploy strategically? 'Earnings Express' powered by AI highlights key points; follow these three steps to establish your options strategy>>![[Clap]This week, Hong Kong's semiconductor sector is set for significant earnings reports.$SMIC (00981.HK)$(After market close on February 10) and$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$(February 12) will release their Q4 2025 results sequentially!Against the backdrop of global semiconductor supply chain restructuring and accelerated domestic substitution, the performance of these two companies will be a key indicator to assess the competitiveness of China's chip industry! 👇 ➡️SMIC: The "Flag Bearer" of Domestic Substitution As the largest and most technologically advanced wafer foundry domestically, SMIC is fully capitalizing on the benefits of switching to a "domestic supply chain."[Clap]In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 7.8% sequentially to $2.382 billion, with capacity utilization reaching 95.8%, nearing full production; revenue from the Chinese region has risen to 86.2%. However, the company’s outlook for Q4 was unexpectedly cautious: revenue is expected to remain flat or grow by 2% sequentially, with gross margins between 18%-20%.[Thinking Face]This reflects management's forward-looking concerns: 🔎External pressures:Global memory chips have entered a 'super cycle' driven by AI demand, with prices surging. This could squeeze profits for downstream manufacturers such as smartphone makers and, in turn, pass cost pressures to SMIC's clients (chip design companies). 🔎Internal burdens:Equipment deliveries that were previously postponed are now arriving in bulk. Depreciation costs from new capacity will be concentrated in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, directly eroding gross margins. Therefore, this quarterly report...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260209/web-1770633358316-OlA6O3A4Pt.png/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![[Clap]This week, Hong Kong's semiconductor sector is set for significant earnings reports.$SMIC (00981.HK)$(After market close on February 10) and$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$(February 12) will release their Q4 2025 results sequentially!Against the backdrop of global semiconductor supply chain restructuring and accelerated domestic substitution, the performance of these two companies will be a key indicator to assess the competitiveness of China's chip industry! 👇 ➡️SMIC: The "Flag Bearer" of Domestic Substitution As the largest and most technologically advanced wafer foundry domestically, SMIC is fully capitalizing on the benefits of switching to a "domestic supply chain."[Clap]In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 7.8% sequentially to $2.382 billion, with capacity utilization reaching 95.8%, nearing full production; revenue from the Chinese region has risen to 86.2%. However, the company’s outlook for Q4 was unexpectedly cautious: revenue is expected to remain flat or grow by 2% sequentially, with gross margins between 18%-20%.[Thinking Face]This reflects management's forward-looking concerns: 🔎External pressures:Global memory chips have entered a 'super cycle' driven by AI demand, with prices surging. This could squeeze profits for downstream manufacturers such as smartphone makers and, in turn, pass cost pressures to SMIC's clients (chip design companies). 🔎Internal burdens:Equipment deliveries that were previously postponed are now arriving in bulk. Depreciation costs from new capacity will be concentrated in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, directly eroding gross margins. Therefore, this quarterly report...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999982/20260209/web-1770633810116-25j8TRgWJy.jpeg/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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