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Weekly Outlook | Non-farm Payrolls and CPI 'Double Whammy'! Rare clustering of employment and inflation data releases; AI and robotics battle intensifies as new large models are released around the Lunar New Year; SMIC, Coinbase, and other companies are about to report earnings

Key Schedule Highlights

– The battle between AI and robotics intensifies! Qwen, DouBao, YuanBao, and WenXin have successively launched campaigns

In February, a series of key advancements in the global AI field will be densely showcased. In China, the period before and after the Spring Festival has become a core window for AI application promotion. From February 1 to February 17, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 'YuanBao' initiated a campaign distributing 1 billion yuan in cash. $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ Since January 26, WenXin has been distributing 500 million yuan in cash red packets until March 12. On February 6, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ the Qwen APP under Alibaba announced an investment of 3 billion yuan to kick off the Spring Festival campaign, and on February 7 extended the validity period of free cards to February 28, fully integrating into ecosystem services such as Hema and Taobao Flash Purchase.

Additionally, Unitree Technology announced on January 26 that it had become the '2026 Spring Festival Gala Robot Partner' for CCTV. This will mark the third appearance of Unitree robots on the CCTV Spring Festival Gala.

Meanwhile, multiple Chinese companies plan to release new-generation models: DeepSeek is expected to launch its powerful V4 model for programming in February; ByteDance and Alibaba also plan to release DouBao 2.0 and Qwen 3.5 models respectively before and after the Spring Festival.

Overseas, there are also several product updates and commercialization initiatives in February. xAI under Elon Musk plans a major upgrade to its large language model Grok in February. OpenAI is reportedly launching a chatbot advertising service this month. Apple plans to release a more personalized version of Siri powered by Google Gemini.

– US non-farm payroll and inflation data are unusually concentrated in their release

Due to the recent 'brief shutdown' of the US government, the non-farm payroll data will be delayed until February 11. Next week, there will be the rare phenomenon of the US non-farm payroll report and CPI being released in close succession. As long as the data results are better than investors' concerns, they may help restore market confidence to counteract the recent panic selling wave.

The market currently expects January's non-farm payroll growth to be in the range of 60,000 to 80,000. A figure below this range would ignite discussions about rate cuts. The CPI data requires attention to seasonal price pressures at the beginning of the year. A combination of 'weak employment + strong inflation' would pose the greatest market risk.

Considering that Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Fed Chair candidate by the Trump administration,The assessment of the Fed's dual mandate could undergo significant changes, making this moment particularly crucial.。

– China Financial and Inflation Data

China will release its January financial and inflation data. Caitong Securities forecasts a 0.4% YoY decline in January's CPI and a 1.5% YoY drop in PPI, while Zheshang Securities predicts a 0.6% YoY increase in CPI and a 1.8% YoY decrease in PPI.

In terms of financial data, the authenticity of the 'strong start' is being closely watched. Caitong Securities estimates new social financing for January at 7.38 trillion yuan, whereas Zheshang Securities offers a more conservative forecast of 6.9 trillion yuan in new social financing.

– US-Iran verbal sparring with US military carriers on high alert

On February 6 local time, Trump stated that the US had 'very good talks' with Iran and that Iran was 'very eager' to reach an agreement. He mentioned,Next week, the US will resume negotiations with Iran. He reiterated that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons. Trump also authorized his administration to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran, but did not immediately impose any new tariffs.

However, the market anticipates that achieving a breakthrough in negotiations will be difficult due to fundamental differences between the two sides: the US demands a comprehensive agreement covering nuclear, missile, and regional activities, while Iran insists that talks focus solely on the nuclear issue, with lifting sanctions as their core demand.

No date has been set yet for the next round of nuclear negotiations.The oil market is closely watching the tensions in the Middle East for any signs of potential disruptions to crude supply.

– Earnings season for Hong Kong and US stocks continues! Companies such as SMIC, Coinbase, and CoreWeave will release their financial results soon.

In the coming week, traditional industry stocks in the US market such as $McDonald's (MCD.US)$ 、 $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$ 、 $T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$ 、 $BP PLC (BP.US)$ will announce earnings, while pharmaceutical giant $AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$ 、 $Moderna (MRNA.US)$ will also release its financial report.

Last week saw a sharp decline in the market, with investors now focusing on the AI application and software sectors that have experienced significant volatility recently, along with key technology companies. Investors may pay attention to the earnings of companies like $Applovin (APP.US)$ and $Unity Software (U.US)$ .

Additionally, automobile stocks such as $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ 、 $Ford Motor (F.US)$ , cryptocurrency-related stocks like $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ will also release earnings next week.

The fourth-quarter earnings season remains robust. According to John Butters, as of Thursday, the S&P 500 companies reported a fourth-quarter earnings growth rate of 13%, an improvement from last weekend's data. Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer of Bank of America Private Bank, stated: "By no means do we think the opportunity in the US market has ended."

In the Hong Kong stock market, the two leading domestic wafer foundries$SMIC (00981.HK)$、$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$, gaming giant $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ will release earnings next week.

– Hong Kong IPOs remain highly active as Montage Technology officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, followed closely by Evercomm Semiconductor and Lead Intelligent Equipment.

$MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK)$Futu's dark trading session closed up 39.77% on Friday at HKD 149.4 per share, with each lot consisting of 100 shares, earning a gross profit of HKD 4,251 per lot excluding fees. The company is set to officially list on February 9th. This offering received strong backing from cornerstone investors including Alibaba and JPMorgan, amounting to USD 450 million. Its projected net profit growth of up to 66% for 2025 highlights the market's high recognition of its growth potential in AI and data center chips. Next week, chipmaker $AXERA (00600.HK)$ Semiconductor and 'smart equipment company' $WUXI LEAD (00470.HK)$ and $RIDGE OUTDOOR (02720.HK)$ will also be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

– Hang Seng Index Company will announce the Q4 quarterly review results.

The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the Q4 quarterly review results on Friday, February 13th.

Key earnings calendar for the new week

Further Reading:[Prize] SMIC and Hua Hong test the mettle of 'domestic substitution'! Cryptocurrency bellwethers Robinhood and Coinbase make an appearance, quick recap of the week’s earnings (Feb 9-Feb 1...) - Futubull Community

Monday (February 9)

Keywords: Montage Technology's IPO, Aixing Yuanzhi and Lexin Outdoor's grey market trading

In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to Japan’s December trade balance, and at midnight the next day, attention can be given to the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation for January in the United States.

In terms of earnings, $Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US)$ 、 $monday.com (MNDY.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens,In addition, $ON Semiconductor (ON.US)$ and $Amkor Technology (AMKR.US)$will announce earnings after the US stock market closes. For Hong Kong stocks, $HKT-SS (06823.HK)$ will release its results on the same day.

Regarding new stock listings, $MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK)$ will officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, $AXERA (00600.HK)$、 $RIDGE OUTDOOR (02720.HK)$ will start grey market trading after the Hong Kong Stock Exchange session ends.

Tuesday (February 10)

Keywords: SMIC, Robinhood earnings, Lead Intelligent dark plate, Waller's speech on digital assets

In terms of economic data, at 00:00 Beijing time, the US will release the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation for January, and at 21:30, the US December retail sales month-over-month will be announced.

In terms of performance,$Coca-Cola (KO.US)$ 、 $Oscar Health (OSCR.US)$ 、 $CVS Health (CVS.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens,And$Ford Motor (F.US)$ 、 $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ 、 $Astera Labs (ALAB.US)$Wait will announce earnings after the US stock market closes. For Hong Kong stocks,$SMIC (00981.HK)$ 、 $PCCW (00008.HK)$ will release their results.

In terms of financial events, at 02:30 in the morning, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will give a speech on digital assets.At 04:15 in the morning, Bostic, the 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Atlanta Fed, will speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook.

In terms of new stocks, $AXERA (00600.HK)$、 $RIDGE OUTDOOR (02720.HK)$ will officially go public.$WUXI LEAD (00470.HK)$ Will begin dark pool trading after the Hong Kong stock market closes.

Wednesday (February 11th)

Keywords: US non-farm payroll data, China CPI, PPI, NetEase earnings, Lead Intelligent listing

In terms of economic data,China will announce January's CPI and PPI data at 9:30. In addition,The US will release January's unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data at 21:30.

In terms of financial events,At 1 a.m., Loretta Mester, a 2026 FOMC voter and president of the Cleveland Fed, will speak on 'Banking and Economic Outlook'; at 2 a.m., Lori Logan, another 2026 FOMC voter and president of the Dallas Fed, will deliver a speech.

In terms of earnings, $Unity Software (U.US)$ 、 $Vertiv Holdings (VRT.US)$ 、 $Shopify (SHOP.US)$ will release earnings before the US stock market opens. Additionally, $Applovin (APP.US)$ 、 $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ 、 $QuantumScape (QS.US)$ 、 $McDonald's (MCD.US)$Will announce earnings after the US stock market closes. Hong Kong stocks $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ will release financial reports on the same day.

In terms of new stocks, $WUXI LEAD (00470.HK)$Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Thursday (February 12th)

Keywords: US initial jobless claims

In terms of economic data, The US will release the weekly initial jobless claims at 21:30.

In terms of financial events, The Bank of Canada will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

In terms of performance, $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens. In addition, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ 、 $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$ 、$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$Earnings will be released after the US stock market closes. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, $LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK)$And$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$ will announce earnings.

Friday (February 13th)

Keywords: US January CPI

In terms of economic data, the US will release its January CPI data at 21:30 Beijing time.

In terms of financial events,At 8:00 AM, Lorie Logan, 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, will deliver a welcome speech at an event, with Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman attending as a guest.

In terms of earnings, $Moderna (MRNA.US)$ Earnings will be released pre-market US hours.

Stay ahead with key financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunity!

A new week begins, wishing all fellow investors successful investments!

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