Short-term Analysis of Pop Mart: Technical Game Based on 'BOC Guest' Perspective

I. Technical Analysis: Focus on Key Price Levels and Overbought Signals

From a technical perspective, the share price of Pop Mart (09992.HK), after experiencing a period of increase, has now entered a position that requires close observation. According to the latest data as of February 6, the share price was at HKD 245.2. A notable technical signal is that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 72, entering the traditionally recognized overbought range. This data usually implies that the stock price has risen rapidly in the short term, potentially accumulating pressure for a technical correction.

The focus of the current market dynamics is relatively clear. The first important short-term support level is at HKD 220; if the share price adjusts, this is the first key level that needs to hold. If this level breaks down, the next support will be at HKD 201. In terms of upward movement, the immediate resistance is at HKD 258, and whether it can break through will determine if the short-term momentum continues; stronger resistance lies at HKD 282. Overall, the share price is currently at a sensitive stage where short-term overbought signals and well-defined technical thresholds intersect.

II. Integration of Core Insights from 'BOC Guest' and Market Trends

Recently, Pop Mart has demonstrated a relatively independent trend amid market fluctuations, closely tied to the consistently positive perspectives shared on the 'BOC Guest' program. Below is an integration of the core content from two episodes:

January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea

In the January 20 episode of 'BOC Guest,' BOC International director Niki highlighted the positive changes in the company's fundamentals. She pointed out that Pop Mart's management conducted their first share repurchase in two years, utilizing approximately HKD 250 million. Niki noted that this move signals 'management's strong confidence in the company’s prospects, as they are using real money to support the stock price,' injecting confidence into the market. Additionally, she mentioned that some popular IP products would see new developments, with overall market expectations remaining positive.

February 3rd [BOC Guest]: Hang Seng Index, China Mobile, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Pop Mart, Xiaomi Group

In the February 3 episode of 'BOC Guest,' Niki further analyzed the company’s latest growth catalysts. She mentioned that Pop Mart plans to establish a European headquarters in London and open seven new stores across the UK. Her analysis suggests that despite broader volatility in the Hong Kong market, Pop Mart's ability to rise against the trend reflects 'the market’s positive attitude toward Pop Mart’s developments.' This underscores how overseas expansion has become a key fundamental factor supporting recent stock performance.

Overall, the insights presented in the program clearly build a logical chain: management’s share repurchase (demonstrating internal confidence) → continuous updates to IP products (maintaining core business momentum) → establishing a European headquarters and accelerating store openings (unlocking new growth opportunities). These consecutive fundamental positives are crucial reasons for the stock’s resilience in a complex market environment.

III. Warrant Product Review: Leveraged Impact During Positive Volatility

Reviewing recent performance, it can be observed that during periods of underlying stock appreciation, related derivatives amplified gains through their leverage characteristics. Following discussions about these products on February 4, Pop Mart’s underlying stock rose by 2.95% over the next two days. Meanwhile, linked bullish products achieved even more significant increases: BOC call warrants (22285) $BIPOMRT@EC2604B.C (22285.HK)$ rose by 15%, UBS Group call warrants (22315), and UBS bull contracts both increased by 13%, while BOC bull contracts (61595) $BI#POMRTRC2609C.C (61595.HK)$ rose by 11%. This performance highlights that when investors have a clear short-term view on the underlying stock, using warrants or bull/bear contracts can effectively optimize capital deployment to achieve specific investment objectives.

IV. Current Analysis of Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts and Strategy Correlation

Given the current stock price is near a key resistance level and technical indicators show overbought conditions, investors can make strategic deployments using derivatives linked to these technical levels based on different judgments.

If investors believe that positive fundamentals (such as overseas expansion emphasized in 'BOC Visits') will drive the stock price to break through resistance, they may focus on bullish products:

* For call warrants, J.P. Morgan call warrant (23585) and UBS Group call warrant (23598) $UBPOMRT@EC2606A.C (23598.HK)$ have an exercise price of 275.2 yuan, slightly above the second resistance level at 282 yuan, offering about 4.8x leverage. Their relatively low premium makes them suitable for betting on stock price moves towards the resistance zone.

* For bull contracts, Societe Generale bull contract (61375) and HSBC bull contract (61879) have stop-loss levels of 196 yuan and 198 yuan respectively, both far below the second support level at 201 yuan, providing a larger safety buffer. Their terms of 'highest effective leverage with lower premium' suit bullish investors with lower risk tolerance.

If investors are more concerned about short-term technical correction risks, they may consider bearish or hedging instruments:

* For put warrants, Morgan Li put warrant (13644) $MSPOMRT@EP2604A.P (13644.HK)$ has an exercise price of 223.99 yuan, close to the first support level at 220 yuan. Its 'lowest premium' terms reduce holding costs, making it suitable for betting on stock price pullbacks near the first support level.

* For bear contracts, BOC bear contract (59783) $BI#POMRTRP2807A.P (59783.HK)$ and UBS Group bear contract (58910) $UB#POMRTRP2807N.P (58910.HK)$The call prices are 286 yuan and 288 yuan, respectively, higher than the second resistance level of 282 yuan, making them suitable for expressing the market view that stock prices may encounter resistance and retreat after challenging the resistance zone.

Interactive Q&A Session

Based on the coexistence of Pop Mart's current fundamental positives and technical overbought signals, we pose the following questions and welcome your insights:

1. Under the current circumstances, do you believe that Pop Mart’s stock price movement will primarily be driven by the positive fundamentals mentioned in 'BOC Visits,' or will it first react to the technical overbought signals?

2. For investors focusing on Pop Mart derivatives, do you think that at this stage, product selection should prioritize the potential returns brought by leverage, or should it focus more on the safety margin provided by the strike price/call price relative to key technical levels?

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information provided in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met. A comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be conducted by integrating additional data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#Pop Mart #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Warrants #Bull and Bear Certificates #Hong Kong Stock Derivatives #Bank of China Guest Appearance #Share Buyback #Overseas Expansion #Short-term Speculation

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