How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
[Warrant Perspective] XPeng Motors shows a bearish moving average alignment; could oversold signals bring rebound opportunities?
On February 5, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$
The stock closed at HKD 67.3, up 1.13% for the day, with a trading volume of HKD 956 million. The turnover was moderate, without any significant abnormal expansion or contraction in volume, reflecting that the market is still in a wait-and-see attitude towards its short-term trend.February 5th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, JD.com, HSBC, China Mobile, XPeng Motors, Yanzhou Energy $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$$JD-SW (09618.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$
From a technical indicator perspective, let’s first look at the moving average system. The share price is currently below the MA10 (HKD 70.98), MA30 (HKD 76.5), and MA60 (HKD 79.50). The moving averages show a bearish alignment, which is the main reason for the weaker short-term technical picture, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet reversed.
![On February 5, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ The stock closed at HKD 67.3, up 1.13% for the day, with a trading volume of HKD 956 million. The turnover was moderate, without any significant abnormal expansion or contraction in volume, reflecting that the market is still in a wait-and-see attitude towards its short-term trend.[Share Link: February 5th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, JD.com, HSBC, China Mobile, XPeng Motors, Yanzhou Energy] $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$$JD-SW (09618.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ From a technical indicator perspective, let’s first look at the moving average system. The share price is currently below the MA10 (HKD 70.98), MA30 (HKD 76.5), and MA60 (HKD 79.50). The moving averages show a bearish alignment, which is the main reason for the weaker short-term technical picture, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet reversed. Next, looking at oscillation indicators, the RSI is at 29, entering the oversold region. Generally, an RSI below 30 falls within the oversold range, suggesting that the downward momentum in the short term may weaken. The overall technical signal is a 'Strong Buy,' with a signal strength of 13. Combined with Williams %R being in oversold territory, CCI showing neutrality, and momentum oscillators suggesting consideration of buying on RSI oversold conditions, multiple indicators have formed a resonance, providing expectations for a technical rebound. Little tip...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260206/web-1770345296430-ByF5uHhEwn.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Next, looking at oscillation indicators, the RSI is at 29, entering the oversold region. Generally, an RSI below 30 falls within the oversold range, suggesting that the downward momentum in the short term may weaken. The overall technical signal is a 'Strong Buy,' with a signal strength of 13. Combined with Williams %R being in oversold territory, CCI showing neutrality, and momentum oscillators suggesting consideration of buying on RSI oversold conditions, multiple indicators have formed a resonance, providing expectations for a technical rebound.
![On February 5, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ The stock closed at HKD 67.3, up 1.13% for the day, with a trading volume of HKD 956 million. The turnover was moderate, without any significant abnormal expansion or contraction in volume, reflecting that the market is still in a wait-and-see attitude towards its short-term trend.[Share Link: February 5th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, JD.com, HSBC, China Mobile, XPeng Motors, Yanzhou Energy] $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$$JD-SW (09618.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ From a technical indicator perspective, let’s first look at the moving average system. The share price is currently below the MA10 (HKD 70.98), MA30 (HKD 76.5), and MA60 (HKD 79.50). The moving averages show a bearish alignment, which is the main reason for the weaker short-term technical picture, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet reversed. Next, looking at oscillation indicators, the RSI is at 29, entering the oversold region. Generally, an RSI below 30 falls within the oversold range, suggesting that the downward momentum in the short term may weaken. The overall technical signal is a 'Strong Buy,' with a signal strength of 13. Combined with Williams %R being in oversold territory, CCI showing neutrality, and momentum oscillators suggesting consideration of buying on RSI oversold conditions, multiple indicators have formed a resonance, providing expectations for a technical rebound. Little tip...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260206/web-1770345312339-mAdcpSPgzk.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Tip: Although oversold signals are evident, pressure from the moving averages remains. It's important not to be overly optimistic. Pay close attention to the strength of resistance breakout and changes in trading volume.
Stocks in the new energy vehicle sector generally experienced slight increases. By combining and simply comparing technical aspects, it provides investors with a reference for the overall sentiment of the sector:
$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ : Closing price at 36.56 yuan, up 2.70% in a single day, RSI at 39, not yet in the oversold region. The summary signal from technical indicators is 'Buy'. The trend is slightly stronger than XPeng Motors, also below the moving average, but short-term rebound momentum remains relatively stable.
$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ : Closing price at 69.2 yuan, up 1.91% in a single day, RSI at 57, within the neutral region. The summary signal from technical indicators is 'Sell'. The stock price is close to the moving average, with relatively stable short-term performance, but signals lean bearish; caution is advised regarding moving average pressure.
$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : Closing price at 91.25 yuan, up 1.39% in a single day, RSI at 34, near the oversold region. The summary signal from technical indicators is 'Buy'. The technical aspect is similar to XPeng Motors, but with slightly better signal strength, also showing potential for a short-term rebound.
Overall, on February 5th, most stocks in the new energy vehicle sector remained below the moving average, but some stocks have already shown oversold rebound signals. There are technical recovery opportunities in the short term for the sector, which requires following changes in the overall market sentiment.
As of 10:15 AM today (the 6th), XPeng Motors' latest quote was 66.1 yuan, temporarily down 1.78%. Short-term support levels are at 57.2 yuan and 63.4 yuan respectively. Today's stock price is operating above 63.4 yuan, holding the first support level, which is considered a positive signal; resistance levels are at 73.3 yuan and 78.3 yuan, where 73.3 yuan is also close to the MA10 moving average, expected to be the main pressure point for short-term rebounds. If effectively broken through, it may further test higher resistance.
A quick recap: The XPeng Motors-related warrants and bull/bear products recommended on January 30th saw significant gains two days later, with $JP#XPENGRP2805G.P (55363.HK)$ up 33%, $UB#XPENGRP2804D.P (55862.HK)$ up 32%, $MSXPENG@EP2606A.P (22381.HK)$ up 23%, $UBXPENG@EP2606A.P (22317.HK)$ The increase of 17% matched the movement of the underlying stock's decline of 6.91%, which can be considered in line with expectations.
![On February 5, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ The stock closed at HKD 67.3, up 1.13% for the day, with a trading volume of HKD 956 million. The turnover was moderate, without any significant abnormal expansion or contraction in volume, reflecting that the market is still in a wait-and-see attitude towards its short-term trend.[Share Link: February 5th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, JD.com, HSBC, China Mobile, XPeng Motors, Yanzhou Energy] $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$$JD-SW (09618.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ From a technical indicator perspective, let’s first look at the moving average system. The share price is currently below the MA10 (HKD 70.98), MA30 (HKD 76.5), and MA60 (HKD 79.50). The moving averages show a bearish alignment, which is the main reason for the weaker short-term technical picture, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet reversed. Next, looking at oscillation indicators, the RSI is at 29, entering the oversold region. Generally, an RSI below 30 falls within the oversold range, suggesting that the downward momentum in the short term may weaken. The overall technical signal is a 'Strong Buy,' with a signal strength of 13. Combined with Williams %R being in oversold territory, CCI showing neutrality, and momentum oscillators suggesting consideration of buying on RSI oversold conditions, multiple indicators have formed a resonance, providing expectations for a technical rebound. Little tip...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260206/web-1770345577947-IPP1PGBWgU.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Friendly reminder: Warrants and bull/bear products are derivatives with relatively high volatility, carrying risks such as expiry risk and implied volatility changes. Investors should operate based on their own risk tolerance and act accordingly.
Two selected warrant products related to XPeng Motors, catering to different operational needs, are provided for investors' reference:
1. $CIXPENG@EC2705A.C (25535.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 2.1, exercise price of 78.88 yuan; the key feature is the lowest implied volatility with relatively stable fluctuations, suitable for investors expecting a slow rebound in share price and seeking stability.
2. $UB#XPENGRC2607A.C (55469.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 6.7, recovery price of 60 yuan; the key feature is the highest actual leverage and lowest premium, offering outstanding value for money, ideal for investors optimistic about short-term technical rebounds and able to withstand some volatility.
![On February 5, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ The stock closed at HKD 67.3, up 1.13% for the day, with a trading volume of HKD 956 million. The turnover was moderate, without any significant abnormal expansion or contraction in volume, reflecting that the market is still in a wait-and-see attitude towards its short-term trend.[Share Link: February 5th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, JD.com, HSBC, China Mobile, XPeng Motors, Yanzhou Energy] $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$$JD-SW (09618.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ From a technical indicator perspective, let’s first look at the moving average system. The share price is currently below the MA10 (HKD 70.98), MA30 (HKD 76.5), and MA60 (HKD 79.50). The moving averages show a bearish alignment, which is the main reason for the weaker short-term technical picture, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet reversed. Next, looking at oscillation indicators, the RSI is at 29, entering the oversold region. Generally, an RSI below 30 falls within the oversold range, suggesting that the downward momentum in the short term may weaken. The overall technical signal is a 'Strong Buy,' with a signal strength of 13. Combined with Williams %R being in oversold territory, CCI showing neutrality, and momentum oscillators suggesting consideration of buying on RSI oversold conditions, multiple indicators have formed a resonance, providing expectations for a technical rebound. Little tip...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260206/web-1770345595965-7kHDQZGVFR.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![On February 5, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ The stock closed at HKD 67.3, up 1.13% for the day, with a trading volume of HKD 956 million. The turnover was moderate, without any significant abnormal expansion or contraction in volume, reflecting that the market is still in a wait-and-see attitude towards its short-term trend.[Share Link: February 5th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, JD.com, HSBC, China Mobile, XPeng Motors, Yanzhou Energy] $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$$JD-SW (09618.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ From a technical indicator perspective, let’s first look at the moving average system. The share price is currently below the MA10 (HKD 70.98), MA30 (HKD 76.5), and MA60 (HKD 79.50). The moving averages show a bearish alignment, which is the main reason for the weaker short-term technical picture, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet reversed. Next, looking at oscillation indicators, the RSI is at 29, entering the oversold region. Generally, an RSI below 30 falls within the oversold range, suggesting that the downward momentum in the short term may weaken. The overall technical signal is a 'Strong Buy,' with a signal strength of 13. Combined with Williams %R being in oversold territory, CCI showing neutrality, and momentum oscillators suggesting consideration of buying on RSI oversold conditions, multiple indicators have formed a resonance, providing expectations for a technical rebound. Little tip...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260206/web-1770345595962-jaN786hE6A.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
XPeng’s RSI shows an oversold condition combined with a strong buy signal—would you choose to pay attention on pullbacks or continue to wait? Come share your thoughts in the comment section!
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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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