How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?

Root
ð Current Trend Analysis
1. Index Status:
· The Hang Seng Index is currently at 27,015.08 points, with a single-day increase of +239.51 points (+0.89%), reflecting strong short-term momentum.
· The index has broken through EMA20 (26,856.99) and is approaching EMA10 (27,081.84). If it stabilizes above EMA10, there could be further upside towards the 28,000-point level.
2. EMA Arrangement:
· EMA10 > EMA20 > EMA50, showing a bullish trend arrangement, with medium- to short-term structure remaining strong.
· However, note that EMA100 (26,060.97) and EMA200 (25,048.05) are relatively far away, indicating the long-term trend has not fully reversed yet, with key resistance near the 28,650-point level.
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ð WOW (Trend Channel) Analysis
· WOW Trend 1 is at 26,621.16, with the current index (27,015) above this trend line, indicating that the market is in an upward channel.
· If the index can stabilize above WOW Trend 1, the short-term uptrend is likely to continue; if it breaks below, a retest of the 26,200â26,500 support zone is possible.
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ð WAH MM (Money Flow) Analysis
· WAH MM (Institutional Money Flow) stands at 38.324, within a neutral-to-bullish range, reflecting recent signs of institutional fund inflows.
· RETAIL (Retail Investor Money) is at 11.473, relatively low, showing limited retail participation and suggesting that the market is primarily driven by institutional funds, which supports trend continuation.
· If WAH MM remains above 50, upward momentum will strengthen; if it falls below 20, be cautious of capital withdrawal risks.
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ð Volume Analysis
· MAVOL1 (Single-day trading volume) is 60.717 billion, significantly lower than MAVOL50 (50-day average volume) at 228.067 billion, indicating that the rally lacks sufficient volume support and warning of potential divergence between price and volume.
· If subsequent trading fails to see increased volume driving further upside, the index may experience volatility or a pullback at higher levels.
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ð§ Future Direction Prediction
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks):
If the price holds steady above EMA10 (27,081) and breaks through 27,500 with increased volume, it is likely to test the resistance zone of 28,000â28,650.
$CSOP HANG SENG INDEX DAILY (2X)LEVERAGED PRODUCT (07200.HK)$$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07226.HK)$
If support at WOW Trend 1 (26,621) is lost, a pullback to the 26,000â26,500 range for consolidation is possible.
$CSOP HANG SENG INDEX DAILY (-2X) INVERSE PRODUCT (07500.HK)$$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07552.HK)$
2. Medium-term (1-3 months):
The key lies in whether the price can break through 28,650 (EMA100 and previous high resistance). If it successfully breaks through, the long-term trend will turn bullish.
If WAH MM continues to strengthen and trading volume follows suit, upward potential could open up; otherwise, the market will likely remain range-bound.
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â ïž Risk Warning
Low trading volume (MAVOL1 relatively low) remains the main concern, requiring observation on whether volume picks up subsequently.
If WAH MM weakens or RETAIL rises significantly (retail investors chasing highs), profit-taking pressure may emerge.
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Summary
The Hang Seng Index is currently in a short-term bullish pattern, with WOW Trend and WAH MM supporting an upward trajectory amid volatility. However, confirmation of breakout momentum requires replenished volume and sustained inflow of institutional funds. It is recommended to monitor the breakout situation at 27,500 and whether WAH MM remains consistently above 30 as an indicator of momentum.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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