[Warrant Perspective] Hang Seng Index 5-day volatility at 5.8%, focus on key support levels for future trends

On February 2, the Hong Kong stock market experienced widespread adjustments, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The day closed at 26,775.57 points, down 2.23% in a single day, with a trading volume of 347.886 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 5.8%. From the indicators, the Hang Seng Index RSI is 50, in the neutral zone; the overall technical indicator signal is neutral with a strength of 8; multiple moving averages show a buy signal, but several oscillation indicators are neutral, making the overall direction unclear.

From a support and resistance perspective, short-term support levels for the Hang Seng Index are 26,180 points and 25,730 points, with resistance levels at 27,487 points and 27,891 points, with subsequent focus recommended on the support level near 26,180 points.

In terms of individual stock performance, the top ten major blue chips closed lower across the board, with declines ranging from 1.01% to 3.49%. Among them, technology stocks (Alibaba, Meituan) and financial stocks (HSBC, Ping An) showed relatively significant adjustments. Technically, some individual stocks entered the oversold region, while others remained in a volatile pattern, showing notable divergence. Investors can pay close attention to how indicator signals align with support and resistance levels:

1. Tencent (00700): Closed at 598.5 yuan (down 1.24%), bearish arrangement, RSI 40 (neutral), short-term suppressed by the moving average;

2. AIA (01299): Closed at 89.05 yuan (down 1.44%), range-bound fluctuations, RSI 63 (close to overbought), composite signal indicates sell;

3. Alibaba-SW (09988): Closed at 163.3 yuan (down 3.49%), weak trend, RSI 53, technical signal indicates sell;

4. HSBC Holdings (00005): Closed at 134.7 yuan (down 1.39%), contention near MA10, RSI 65, strong sell signal;

5. Meituan-W (03690): Closed at 94.85 yuan (down 2.42%), pressured below the moving average, RSI 36 (close to oversold), technical signal indicates buy;

6. China Construction Bank (00939): Closed at 7.83 yuan (down 1.01%), oscillating pattern, RSI 53, technical signal indicates sell, small volatility;

7. Ping An (02318): Closed at HKD 70.7 (down 2.75%), trend is bearish, RSI 59, strong sell signal;

8. HKEX (00388): Closed at HKD 424.2 (down 1.85%), hovering near moving averages, RSI 49 (neutral), direction unclear;

9. China Mobile (00941): Closed at HKD 78 (down 2.26%), broke below MA10, RSI 26 (oversold), strong buy signal;

10. Wuxi Bio (02269): Closed at HKD 35.86 (down 3.08%), trend is weak, RSI 47, technical buy signal.

Warrant Bull-Bear Review: Products performed impressively

Reviewing the Hang Seng Index-related warrants and bull/bear products recommended on January 27th, their performance was impressive over the past two trading days, achieving solid gains in line with the Hang Seng Index's movements. Specific review as follows: UBS Bull Certificate (69166): Gained 78% over two days, corresponding to a 3.10% rise in the Hang Seng Index over two days. UBS Call Warrant (23091): Gained 47% over two days, corresponding to a 3.10% rise in the Hang Seng Index over two days. BOC Call Warrant (23128): Gained 52% over two days, corresponding to a 3.10% rise in the Hang Seng Index over two days. BOC Bull Certificate (60501): Gained 82% over two days, corresponding to a 3.10% rise in the Hang Seng Index over two days.

Reminder: Warrants and bull/bear products have leverage properties, with large fluctuations in gains and losses. Previous profits do not represent future performance. Investors should operate based on their own risk tolerance and proceed within their means.

Selected Warrant Products:

Based on the Hang Seng Index trend and technical signals, two superior warrant products with relatively controllable risks are selected. Key focus areas include premium, leverage, and implied volatility, for technical reference only:

1. BOC Call Warrant (23798): Key features: Leverage of 7.1x, highest leverage among currently recommended products, while premium and implied volatility are at the lowest levels, offering excellent cost-performance. Strike price: 28,600 points. Suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term rebound in the Hang Seng Index and who can handle appropriate leverage risk.

2. UBS Bull Certificate (65182): Key features: Lowest premium, actual leverage up to 26.8x, better cost-performance than similar products. Recovery price: 25,800 points. Suitable for investors confident about a short-term stabilization and rebound of the Hang Seng Index and with some experience in derivatives trading.

The Hang Seng Index has adjusted; do you think it will continue to consolidate or rebound in the short term? A. Continue to consolidate. B. Short-term rebound. C. Hard to judge. Come share your thoughts in the comments!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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