SpaceX has been making frequent moves recently!
First, according to reports,SpaceX is considering a potential merger with $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, while also evaluating another option—integration with the artificial intelligence company xAI.Although this plan is still in its early stages,However, the synergy of the 'Musk Empire' has already sparked heated market discussions.This news also drove Tesla to rise more than 3% against the market trend last Friday.

Meanwhile, SpaceX has demonstrated its grand technological ambition by formally applying to U.S. regulators to launch 1 million satellites, aiming to create the world’s first 'orbital data center.'The plan intends to leverage solar energy resources in space and natural cooling advantages to completely transform data processing models.
What excited investors the most was the first disclosed financial data:SpaceX achieved revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion last year, with EBITDA profits of approximately $8 billion. This impressive report card not only highlights its strong monetization capability but also opens up limitless imagination for the market regarding its future IPO valuation.
Some banks currently expect that SpaceX's valuation at IPO may exceed $1.5 trillion, with financing potentially surpassing $50 billion. This valuation level would make it one of the largest IPOs globally.
In addition to SpaceX, NASA is taking a critical step toward its first manned return to the moon in over fifty years. New progress has been made on the 'Artemis 2' mission, the first crewed lunar flyby under NASA's Artemis program. NASA began a two-day simulated countdown to prepare for fueling the new lunar rocket.
Overall, 2026 will be a pivotal year for the aerospace industry as it transitions from 'concept hype' to 'commercial monetization.' SpaceX’s proven profit model undoubtedly injects a strong boost into the entire industry.
This article will provide an in-depth breakdown:
🔍Strategic Insight: Analyzing the 'Business Loop' Logic Behind SpaceX's Recent Intensive Moves.
💰Investment Guide: Reviewing Core Concept Stocks in the SpaceX Supply Chain Worth Considering.
What is the logic behind SpaceX's recent intensive moves?
① Why is Musk considering merging SpaceX with Tesla or xAI?
In the past few days,Rumors about a 'mega-merger of Musk's companies' have been gaining significant attention.According to informed sources, Musk is evaluating the possibility of merging SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI, though discussions are still in the early stages.
In fact,This indicates that the world’s richest man, Musk, is weighing how to integrate his vast business empire.Analysts point out that if these moves materialize, they will integrate rocket launches, the Starlink satellite network, electric vehicles, social media platforms, and generative AI technologies.Building a 'super ecosystem' in the global technology sector.
Specifically,SpaceX is not just a company; it realizes integrated data transmission between Earth and space through the Starlink network,achieving full-stack integration from rocket launches, satellite communications, energy acquisition to AI applications.

SpaceX's business model is a continuously strengthening and expanding ecological closed loop.The rocket launch business within SpaceX has moved beyond the role of a mere 'service provider,' becoming the strategic cornerstone and value amplifier for SpaceX, formingthe first driving force behind 'low-cost space access → scaled space services → interstellar exploration.'

Overall, Bloomberg pointed out that one of Musk’s grand visions for SpaceX is to send data centers into space to perform complex computing tasks for AI. Different merger plans may serve different parts of this vision.
② Why is SpaceX planning such a large-scale satellite launch this time?
According to reports, SpaceX is planning a satellite network called the 'Orbital Data Center System,' applying to launch and operate a constellation of up to 1 million satellites. These satellites will operate in different orbital shells ranging from 500 km to 2,000 km.
This unprecedented plan is not a pipe dream; its implementation logic is closely tied to SpaceX's core business capabilities:
Starship: Such high-frequency, large-scale launches must rely on SpaceX's more powerful Starship system, whose low-cost, high-payload characteristics are the only底气 for deploying a million satellites.
Capital markets: According to media reports, SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO), one of its core purposes being to raise funds for this costly 'space data center' project.
According to Guolian Minsheng Overseas Research,The core reason behind SpaceX’s large-scale satellite launch plan lies in the limited availability of low Earth orbit space.Statistics show that since 'Starlink' sparked the low-orbit constellation race, over 300 constellation plans have been submitted globally, potentially deploying more than a million satellites, making space increasingly 'crowded.' Considering the safety distances required for satellite orbital motion—with both inter-layer and cross-layer minimum safety distances set at 50 kilometers—the low Earth orbit space between 300 to 2000 kilometers can only accommodate 175,000 satellites.The clear upper limit of space means that the satellite industry has end-game supply certainty akin to precious metals.
Against this backdrop,'(First-mover) time is space, space is resources'This industry development perspective influences every participant in the aerospace market.In addition to securing quotas, the diffusion of the AI industrial wave presents computational opportunities that also drive demand for the development of satellite businesses.
In the application, SpaceX pointed out that the rising energy costs of AI data centers on Earth make orbital data centers the most effective way to meet the growing demand for AI computing power. Additionally, the company stated it plans to leverage its more powerful Starship spacecraft for rapid deployment of space-based data centers, which is crucial for upgrading the Starlink system with next-generation satellites. In terms of energy, these satellites will use space photovoltaic technology and operate in 'Sun-synchronous orbits at altitudes between 500km to 2000km and an inclination of 30 degrees.' These orbital data centers will also connect to Starlink via 'optical links' or lasers, utilizing the existing satellite internet system to route traffic to ground users.
What does this set of financial data from SpaceX reveal?
According to two sources cited by Reuters, Elon Musk's SpaceX generated revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion last year, with EBITDA profits of approximately $8 billion.
This rare disclosure of financial datagives the market its first clear look at SpaceX's 'profitability,'and has quickly fueled speculation about the scale of its IPO. Sources say the company plans to go public later this year,with the target date set around Musk’s 55th birthday (June 28).
From a business structure perspective,SpaceX's profitability is highly concentrated in Starlink.Sources indicate that Musk’s satellite internet system, Starlink, has become the company’s absolute revenue driver, contributing about 50% to 80% of its income. The steady cash flow generated by Starlink not only supports business expansion but also serves as the core funding source for SpaceX’s continued investment in the development of the heavy-lift rocket, Starship.
Moreover, Musk anticipates that Starship will begin executing commercial payload launch missions this year. Since 2023, the rocket has completed 11 test launches.Looking further ahead, Starship is envisioned for deploying space AI data centers.This concept is highly relevant to SpaceX's proposed xAI integration but remains in an early, high-risk stage.
What opportunities should be closely watched?
SpaceX's largest long-term investors include venture capital firms such as Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, 137 Ventures, and Valor Equity Partners. Fidelity Investments and Google are also significant investors.
In early September, SpaceX acquired AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses for satellite and mobile communications from EchoStar Communications for up to $8.5 billion in cash and SpaceX stock valued at up to $8.5 billion.Due to the stock swap agreement, purchasing EchoStar Communications is equivalent to owning SpaceX stock.
Fellow investors have also compiled a list of SpaceX-related concept stocks for investor reference:

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$SpaceX and Tesla are the "twin pillars" of Musk’s business empire,In a previous interview, Musk hinted at launching a new initiative called "Galaxy Mind," aimed at integratingSpaceX, Tesla, and xAIthe core capabilities of these three companies,to deploy AI satellites powered by solar energy into deep space.Specifically, the realization of this blueprint depends on the clear division of labor and collaboration among the three companies.
SpaceX: Offers mature rocket launch and spacecraft manufacturing capabilities, responsible for deploying AI satellites into deep-space orbits.
Tesla: Leveraging its expertise in solar energy and battery technology, provides efficient and long-lasting energy solutions for satellites.
xAI: Responsible for developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence models capable of large-scale operation on satellites.
As SpaceX’s valuation rises, its competitors may benefit from increased 'industry enthusiasm,' but in the medium to long term, these companies' scarcity might diminish if SpaceX goes public, potentially diverting funds from $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$和$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$ and redirected towards SpaceX.
$Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ :Recognized by the market as a 'mini SpaceX' and referred to by investors as 'Little Rocket', it is one of only two private aerospace companies globally capable of achieving routine, high-frequency successful launches.Not only has it established itself with the highly reliable small rocket Electron, but it has also successfully transitioned into an integrated provider of satellite manufacturing, software, and launch services through its 'space systems' business.An end-to-end service provider in the U.S. stock market,is the only company with solid performance and the most significant scarcity value as a "SpaceX alternative".The leading space company is currently developing a medium-sized reusable rocket, Neutron, which is considered a key trump card to potentially break SpaceX’s Falcon 9 monopoly in the future.
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$:It is regarded by the market as the "space version of AT&T."orThe leader in the "direct satellite-to-smartphone" sector, its core vision is to build the world’s firstspace-based cellular broadband network,using large low-orbit satellites as "space base stations," allowing ordinary smartphones on the groundto connect without hardware modifications or the need for specialized equipment.Devices such as satellite dish antennas can directly connect to satellite signals. Despite fierce competition from SpaceX's Starlink, its deep partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Google , combined with strong patent barriers, have made it the most explosive (albeit highly volatile) pure-play investment in the U.S. stock market for a trillion-dollar revolution aimed at "eliminating signal dead zones."
$Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US)$:It is currently a formidable dark horse in the commercial aerospace sector, second only to the leading duo (SpaceX/Rocket Lab), thanks to its successful orbital launches using lightweight rockets. Alpha It has distinguished itself in the U.S. Department of Defense’s “Tactical Space” rapid response launch missions. Unlike single-launch providers, it boasts a high-barrier "Earth-Moon ecosystem chain", featuring its Blue Ghost lunar lander, which holds major NASA commercial payload contracts. The company is also collaborating with defense giant Northrop Grumman to develop a medium-lift launch vehicle (MLV) to fill market gaps.。
SpaceX's IPO serves as a "shot in the arm" for its partners, implying greater cash reserves and enhanced contract fulfillment capabilities.
$EchoStar (SATS.US)$:In September 2025, SpaceX acquired EchoStar’s AWS-4 and H-band spectrum licenses for satellite and mobile communications. This unique transaction involved up to $8.5 billion in cash and $8.5 billion worth of SpaceX stock. At the time, with SpaceX valued at approximately $400 billion, this equity stake represented roughly 2% of SpaceX’s total shares. Additionally, SpaceX agreed to assume responsibility for EchoStar’s debt interest payments totaling approximately $2 billion through November 2027.
$Planet Labs PBC (PL.US)$:The relationship between Planet Labs and SpaceX can be summarized in one phrase: a "long-term and deeply integrated passenger-driver relationship." Planet Labs operates the world’s largest fleet of Earth observation satellites (hundreds), which have relatively short lifespans (about 3-5 years) and require frequent replenishment and updates. As one of SpaceX’s most loyal commercial launch customers, Planet Labs' business continuity heavily relies on the timely launches provided by SpaceX rockets.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$:The collaboration between Amazon and SpaceX represents a dramatic commercial turnaround. As the parent company of Blue Origin, Amazon has long been regarded as one of SpaceX’s primary competitors in the commercial space industry. However, delays in the development of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket forced Amazon to adjust its strategy. In 2025, Amazon entrusted SpaceX to launch 24 Kuiper satellites.
$T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$: The "primary ally" in the commercialization of Starlink and a pioneer in its implementation,T-Mobile is SpaceX's most important telecommunications partner for its "Direct to Cell" satellite business. The two parties signed a historic agreement named "Coverage Above and Beyond," with the key breakthrough being that "no phone replacement is required"—utilizing T-Mobile's existing 5G spectrum to use Starlink satellites as "space base stations." This not only helps T-Mobile address terrestrial signal dead zones but also opens up a vast consumer market for SpaceX, serving as a critical monetization pathway for Starlink services transitioning from "niche broadband" to "mass-market telecom."
$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$: The "enabler of foundational technology" connecting earth and space communications If T-Mobile provides the "road" (spectrum and users), Qualcomm provides the "engine" (chips). As the global leader in communication chips, Qualcomm is collaborating deeply with SpaceX, focusing on optimizing the 5G NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) standard. SpaceX requires Qualcomm’s mobile modem and RF front-end technology support to ensure future smartphones can efficiently and with low power consumption "understand" satellite signals. Qualcomm is a key hardware driver in achieving the standardization of satellite communications and making satellite functionality a "standard feature" in smartphones.
$flyExclusive (FLYX.US)$:The company previously announced it has signed an authorized dealer agreement with Starlink, officially becoming a certified distributor and installation service provider for its high-speed, low-latency aviation connectivity system.
1. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$& $Bank of America (BAC.US)$: Google is one of SpaceX's most important early strategic shareholders (holding approximately 7%), with deep integration in cloud and edge computing; andBank of Americahas previously participated in SpaceX's financing.
If SpaceX goes public:For Google, this represents a significant 'asset revaluation,' with the value of its $900 million investment potentially multiplying several-fold, directly enhancing investment returns on its financial statements; for BAC, it means earning substantial IPO underwriting fees and mitigating debt risks. Both are 'passive beneficiaries' with vested interests.
2. $Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ.US)$ & $Entrepreneur Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR.US)$: These two fundsare currently the only 'premium channels' for individual investors to buy SpaceX shares in the secondary market. Their business model involves 'accumulating scarce private equity stakes and reselling them to individual investors at a markup.'
If SpaceX goes public:This would be a devastating 'valuation correction' blow to them. Although the stock price may surge due to pre-IPO speculation, once SpaceX officially lists, investors will be able to purchase common shares directly, and no one will be willing to pay DXYZ’s current premium of over 100%. At that point, DXYZ’s share price will undergo a sharp correction (falling back to net asset value), losing its scarcity.
Summary
Taking a broad view, SpaceX's series of intensive moves—from the ambitious application for an 'orbital data center,' xAI's cross-industry integration with Tesla, to impressiveThe first disclosure of financial data – all signs point to Musk's business empire transitioning from single-point breakthroughs toward a 'full-stack closed-loop'.
SpaceX's success is not only a victory for its individual enterprise but also setsa value benchmark for later entrants like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile.For investors, this represents the convergence of four major waves: technology, energy, communications, and artificial intelligence. In the new blue ocean of the space economy, whoever completes the 'integrated closed-loop' between Earth and space first will hold the 'Galactic Key' to global competition over the next decade.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comments (8)
to post a comment
57
164
