[Warrant Perspective] Divergence in multiple indicators for BYD; how to assess trends amid weak sector performance

The stock showed weakness, closing at HKD 97.75, with a single-day decline of 3.98%. The trading volume reached CNY 2.824 billion, and the turnover remained at a reasonable level without abnormal surges or declines. Analyzing each indicator from a technical perspective to clearly determine short-term rhythm:

Moving average system: The stock closed at HKD 97.75, below the 10-day moving average (HKD 99.53) and between the 30-day moving average (HKD 97.19) and the 60-day moving average (HKD 97.57). Short-term averages are exerting slight pressure, with no clear trend direction yet established, indicating a consolidation phase.

The RSI indicator is at 51, within the neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold, reflecting relatively balanced short-term bullish and bearish forces without a clear advantage for either side. The Williams %R indicator gives a sell signal, while the stochastic oscillator and CCI indicators remain neutral. Discrepancies among multiple oscillators indicate that reliance on a single indicator for judgment should be avoided.

The MACD indicator gives a buy signal. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price has broken below the midline on the daily chart, indicating a weak short-term trend. If it cannot quickly rebound above the midline, it may further test the support below. The technical indicator summary signals a buy with strength 9, which is a relatively clear buy signal, but contrasts with the day’s downward movement; further confirmation using support and resistance levels is needed.

We 【Hong Kong Stock Report】January 30 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining, BYD, AIAIn the middle of discussions, BYD was noted: the stock price has broken below the midline on the daily Bollinger Bands chart. Investors have asked, if BYD continues to fall, where might it drop to? Many investors hold bearish products on BYD, including bear certificates with a recall price of 106 yuan. For investors looking to position themselves in BYD bear certificates, it is recommended to prioritize products with a recall price above 105 yuan, such as targets at 106 yuan or higher, to effectively mitigate the risk of price rebounds triggering recall clauses. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CATL (03750.HK)$$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$AIA (01299.HK)$

On January 30th, the new energy vehicle and related components sector generally performed weakly, with most stocks recording declines. Only a few individual stocks moved against the trend. Comparing performance among similar stocks can better assess BYD's relative strength.

$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ : A significant drop of 4.23%, closing at 16.09 yuan. The technical indicator also signals a buy, but the stock price is now below several key moving averages, showing weaker performance than BYD.

$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ : Closed at 71.65 yuan, down 1.71%. The technical indicator also signals a buy, with RSI at 35 already entering the oversold zone, suggesting selling pressure may be nearing an end.

$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ : Closed at 65.95 yuan, down 2.58%. The technical indicator signals a sell, making it one of the relatively underperforming stocks in its category.

$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ : Increased against the trend by 3.65%, closing at 38.62 yuan, becoming one of the few gainers among similar stocks, contrasting sharply with the overall weakness of the sector.

Overall, the new energy vehicle sector came under broad pressure that day, reflecting a cautious market attitude towards this sector. Although BYD, Geely Auto, and XPeng Motors all received technical buy signals, their stock prices failed to strengthen accordingly, indicating a subdued short-term sentiment for the sector, and recovery will require waiting for renewed upward momentum.

As of 10:40 AM today (February 2nd), BYD's latest quote is 92.5 yuan, temporarily plummeting by 5.37%.Further support below can be watched at 91.3 yuan.On the resistance side, the short-term first resistance level is at 101.5 yuan. A successful breakout is required to ease the recent weak trend, after which the next resistance level to watch will be 105 yuan. Additionally, the probability of an upward movement is 55%, slightly higher than 50%, reflecting that the market still has some expectations for its short-term performance.

Review of Warrants and Bull/Bear Certificates: Recommended products from the previous period performed impressively:

Reviewing BYD-related warrants and bull certificates recommended on 2026/1/26, their performance over the past two days was notable when compared to the underlying stock's movement, providing a reference for investors:

1. $HS#BYD RC2607I.C (54318.HK)$ : Gained 68% in two days, while the underlying stock rose by 4.37% during the same period, showing significant leverage effects and delivering solid returns to holders;

2. $HS-BYD @EC2605B.C (23658.HK)$ : Increased by 27% in two days, corresponding to the underlying stock's rise of 4.37%, demonstrating stable performance;

3. $UB#BYD RC2607V.C (64134.HK)$ : Rose by 53% in two days, achieving good gains following the underlying stock’s movement;

4. $UB-BYD @EC2605B.C (23812.HK)$ : Increased by 28% in two days, with performance close to HSBC call warrants, overall meeting expectations.

Here, we remind all investors that warrants and bull/bear certificates are derivatives with leverage characteristics, carrying relatively high risk. Regardless of past performance, they should be approached with caution, ensuring proper risk management.

Warrant and Bull/Bear Product Selection:

Considering BYD's technical trends, support/resistance levels, and market sentiment, we have selected two suitable warrant and bull/bear certificate products. Priority is given to low premium and reasonably leveraged options, provided as a reference for investors:

1. $UB#BYD RC2607V.C (64134.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 15x, recovery price at 93 yuan; the key feature is the lowest premium with actual leverage at a reasonable level, suitable for investors optimistic about BYD holding support and rebounding in the short term, but attention must be paid to risks near the recovery price.

2. $UB#BYD RP2809A.P (63979.HK)$The actual leverage is 11.6, with a stop-loss level at 106 yuan, offering the lowest premium and reasonable leverage, making it suitable for investors who believe BYD may further test near-term support levels. Additionally, some investors in the market already hold bearish certificates with a stop-loss level of 106 yuan, so close attention should be paid to the stock price movement around this level.

At this stage, would you choose to invest in bullish or bearish certificates for BYD? A, Bullish certificate. B, Bearish certificate.

The new energy vehicle sector has generally declined; do you think there will be a rebound in the next 1-2 days? A, Yes. B, No.

Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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