Warrants Market Insights: Kuaishou Bearish Products Profitable, How to Choose Tools for Future Market?

Recently, the share price of Kuaishou (01024.HK) has been as dramatic as its short video content, full of twists and turns. At the beginning of 2026, the company experienced a strong rally due to the impressive commercial performance of its AI video tool 'Kling,' with the stock rebounding significantly from its early-year lows. However, this upward momentum was halted on January 30 when the stock fell by 3.38%, closing at HKD 80.15, right at a key psychological and technical threshold. The market is currently trying to digest the intense collision between 'fundamental positives' and 'compliance risk negatives,' and the short-term stock price trend has entered a sensitive period of bullish vs. bearish tug-of-war.

Technical Analysis: Test of Short-Term Trend Weakening and Key Support Levels

January 30 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining, BYD, AIA

Observing the technical chart, after the significant drop in Kuaishou's share price on January 30, the short-term technical pattern has been notably impacted. The stock price has retreated to near the 10-day moving average (around HKD 79.48), and multiple trend indicators are showing bearish signals, with the technical summary signaling 'sell,' indicating that short-term momentum has weakened. This validates the judgment made in the [Hong Kong Stocks Podcast] on January 30 that short-term 'sell' signals have a slight advantage, and there is pressure on upward movement.

However, the chart does not lack positive factors entirely. One notable phenomenon is that despite facing adverse news, the stock ultimately closed above the important integer level of HKD 80, indicating some psychological support at this position. Moreover, the current stock price remains resilient above longer-term moving averages such as the 30-day and 60-day lines, and the foundation of the medium-term uptrend channel has not been completely broken. The current 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, which, though not entering the overbought zone, shows that market sentiment has cooled somewhat from the exuberance seen earlier in the year, now entering a relatively rational observation phase. Overall, the technical picture presents a situation where 'short-term trends are under pressure, but the medium-term structure remains intact, with key integer levels becoming focal points for bulls and bears.'

Key Support and Resistance: Defining Oscillation and Breakout Ranges

Amidst the backdrop of news-driven fluctuations and technical tug-of-war, clear key price levels are crucial for determining short-term direction.

* On the upside resistance, the primary target is to reclaim 84.5 yuan, which is the initial resistance level for the recent rebound. If market sentiment can quickly recover from the penalty-related downturn and break upwards, the next target will be 86.8 yuan. As analyzed in [HKEX Podcast], there is still notable room between the current price and the much-discussed 90-yuan mark, making a rapid short-term surge unlikely.

* On the downside support, the 80-yuan mark represents the first line of defense and its gain or loss has significant implications for market confidence. If it fails to hold, the correction may further test the support strength at 75.7 yuan. A more critical long-term support lies around 69.7 yuan, a position that not only served as an important platform but also aligns with the 60-day moving average, expected to provide strong support.

Facing this complex situation, the January 30 episode of [HKEX Podcast] pointed out that despite the stock price adjustment, some investors are watching whether Kuaishou can stabilize above 80 yuan before attacking 90 yuan, with some already deploying bullish notes with a call price at 74 yuan. The analysis suggests that given the supports at 75.7 yuan and 69.7 yuan, subsequent bull note investors should prioritize products with a call price below 70 yuan or even 69 yuan to effectively reduce the risk of forced liquidation and enhance security in their positioning.

Warrants and Bull/Bear Certificates: Review, Term Analysis, and Strategy Selection

1. Recent Product Performance Review

Reviewing the few bearish (short) warrant products mentioned on January 28, their performance over the following two days accurately reflected the hedging or short-selling effect of leveraged products when the underlying stock fell. During those two days, Kuaishou’s stock fell by 2.61%, while related bearish derivatives recorded substantial gains: HSBC Put Warrant (19013) and HSBC Bear Certificate (57031) $HS#KUASORP2712F.P (57031.HK)$ both rose by 20%, Morgan Stanley Bear Certificate (66632) $JP#KUASORP2812C.P (66632.HK)$ rose by 18%, and Bank of China Put Warrant (19035) $BIKUASO@EP2603A.P (19035.HK)$ rose by 12%. This clearly demonstrates the risk management or trend-following value these tools can offer when the market experiences explicit negative factors and correct directional judgment is made.

2. In-depth correlation analysis of selected product terms

When selecting warrants, linking their core terms to key technical price levels is the cornerstone of building an effective strategy.

* Bullish options (call warrants and bull certificates):

* HSBC Call Warrant (20993) $HSKUASO@EC2606B.C (20993.HK)$ UBS Call Warrant (19639) $UBKUASO@EC2606A.C (19639.HK)$ : The strike price for both products is 96 yuan. This price is significantly higher than the current stock price and also clearly exceeds the second resistance level of 86.8 yuan, making them deep out-of-the-money terms. This means they are aggressive tools designed for investors who are highly optimistic that Kuaishou can fully digest any negative news and initiate a strong upward trend with a target above 96 yuan, offering high elasticity through approximately 5.4-5.5 times actual leverage.

* UBS Bull Certificate (68413 and 68430) $UB#KUASORC2607B.C (68413.HK)$$UB#KUASORC2607C.C (68430.HK)$ : The forced call prices for these two bull certificates are set at 72 yuan and 72.2 yuan, respectively. This position is below the first support level of 75.7 yuan but above the critical second support level of 69.7 yuan. This design aims to provide some buffer space when the stock price tests the 75.7 yuan support, striving to avoid being forcibly called due to short-term fluctuations. They are suitable for investors who believe that the 75.7 yuan support is valid and want to use approximately 7x leverage to capitalize on a rebound.

* Bearish/hedging options (put warrants and bear certificates):

* HSBC Bear Certificate (57031) and J.P. Morgan Bear Certificate (66632): The forced call prices for these two bear certificates are set at 87 yuan. This position is above the second resistance level of 86.8 yuan, meaning they are prepared for investors predicting that any stock price rebound will fail to break through 87 yuan and may reverse downward under this resistance. With approximately 9x real leverage, they are sensitive to downside volatility, but if the stock price rebounds strongly, there is also corresponding forced call risk.

* Bank of China Put Warrant (19035) $BIKUASO@EP2603A.P (19035.HK)$ BOCI Put Warrant (19624) $MSKUASO@EP2603A.P (19624.HK)$ : The strike prices for these two put warrants are 68.83 yuan and 68.33 yuan, respectively. These strike prices are already below the critical second support level of 69.7 yuan. This indicates they are not designed for minor adjustments but instead serve as risk hedging or directional tools for investors expecting worsening market sentiment and a possible significant correction below the 69.7 yuan support level.

5. Interactive Segment: Key Decision

The stock price found breathing room at the 80-yuan mark, with resistance above at 84.5 yuan and support below at 75.7 yuan. The market is digesting negative news while awaiting a new direction.

Which way do you think Kuaishou's stock price is more likely to move next?

A. Rebound upwards: Believing the AI narrative can offset the negatives, expecting a challenge of the 84.5-yuan level first.

B. Range-bound fluctuations: Feeling that bullish and bearish forces are balanced, predicting movement between 80-85 yuan.

C. Searching for a bottom downwards: Worried about ongoing impacts, it may test the 75.7-yuan support level first.

Is your choice A, B, or C? Come to the comment section and share your thoughts; let’s see which side market sentiment leans towards!

Final friendly reminder: Warrants and callable bull/bear contracts (CBBCs) are complex leveraged derivative investment products with expiration limits. Their prices can rise or fall, and investors could lose their entire principal. Before investing, fully understand the product characteristics, especially the forced recall mechanism of CBBCs. If you have any questions about the product terms, seek professional advice. For more daily in-depth analysis on Hong Kong stocks and derivatives, follow 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny'.

#Kuaishou #01024 #TechnicalAnalysis #LiveEcommerce #Warrants #BullBearCertificates #AIVideo #Regulation #SupportResistanceLevels #HongKongStockPodcast

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information provided in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met. A comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be conducted by integrating additional data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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