January 30 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining, BYD, AIA

January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, Alibaba

January 26 [HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, NetEase, China Shenhua, CNOOC Services, HSBC, Zijin Mining

January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea

On January 30, the Hong Kong stock market showed a divergence in trends. The Hang Seng Index surged before experiencing a pullback, with some individual stocks showing independent performances. Investors in the market extensively discussed the future direction of various targets and formed different strategies around derivatives positioning. Below, we provide a detailed analysis of the trends and derivatives allocation strategies for the Hang Seng Index and CATL (03750.HK), Kuaishou-W (01024.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), BYD (01211.HK), and AIA (01299.HK) based on market trading performance, technical analysis, and key concerns of investors.

1. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ : Short-term pullback shows bullish and bearish divergence, bull and bear warrants become core positioning directions

Simon: The Hang Seng Index recorded significant gains over the past two trading days, reaching a recent high of 28,000 points on January 29. On January 30, it saw a notable pullback, closing near 27,300 points; trading volume decreased compared to the previous two days but remained relatively high overall. Many investors in the market are optimistic about the future trend, considering this pullback as an excellent opportunity for quality positioning and believing that entering bull warrants at this time offers higher cost-effectiveness and winning probability. Some investors have noticed short-term volatility risks and tend to allocate bear warrant products, with particular focus on bear warrants with a recovery price of 28,278 points.

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) shows short-term bearish signals with nine sell signals and six buy signals, indicating that market sentiment is somewhat suppressed in the near term. On the support side, the first support level is seen at 26,700 points; if this level is breached, further support lies at 26,200 points. In terms of resistance, the immediate resistance level is at 28,100 points, with the next target at 28,400 points upon breakthrough.

For derivatives positioning, bullish investors choosing bull certificates are advised to prioritize products with a call price at or below 26,200 points, as these products are readily available in the market and less affected by implied volatility. Investors should focus on their risk tolerance when selecting call prices and compare quotation terms. For those concerned about short-term risks and considering bear certificates, it’s recommended to choose products with a call price of 28,400 points or above to reduce the risk of being called. $BI-HSI @EP2603C.P (21317.HK)$$UB-HSI @EP2603C.P (21347.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2803N.P (68553.HK)$$UB#HSI RP2803A.P (58099.HK)$

2. CATL (03750.HK) $CATL (03750.HK)$ : Approaching 500 yuan amid upward movement, investors focus on breakout levels and call warrant strategies

Simon: On January 30, CATL's stock price rose against the broader market trend, closing at 491 yuan and nearing the psychological 500-yuan mark during trading before retreating slightly towards the end. Trading volume increased compared to previous days but did not reach the high levels seen on November 20 last year. Many investors are watching whether CATL can reclaim the 500-yuan mark under current conditions, while some have already begun focusing on related call warrant products, seeking suitable positioning targets. Call warrants with an exercise price of 629.38 yuan have garnered attention from certain investors.

Technically, CATL’s short-term signals are neutral, offering no clear directional guidance for now. On the resistance side, if the stock breaks through 500 yuan, the first resistance level will be at 511 yuan, with further upside targeting 520 yuan upon a breakthrough. No significant pressure signals have emerged on the support side.

In terms of call warrant positioning, given the current share price around 490 yuan, there is limited availability of closely priced call warrant products, with quality options being scarce. Among out-of-the-money options within 10%, most expire in February 2026, which might lead to rapid time decay due to the short duration. Some products have exercise prices as high as 600 yuan or more, showing significant deviation from the current share price and lower investment attractiveness. At this stage, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the market introduces call warrants with more favorable terms. $BI-CATL@EC2612B.C (22946.HK)$$MS-CATL@EC2612A.C (22777.HK)$

3. Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ : Holding steady above the 80-yuan mark, investors debate potential for reaching 90 yuan; bullish certificates gain attention

Simon: On January 30, Kuaishou's stock price experienced adjustments, closing at 80.15 yuan, just holding firm above the psychological 80-yuan level. Some investors have raised questions about whether Kuaishou can solidify this support level and subsequently challenge the 90-yuan mark. Meanwhile, bullish certificate products tied to Kuaishou have also drawn interest, with some investors currently holding Kuaishou bull certificates with a call price of 74 yuan.

From a technical perspective, Kuaishou's short-term 'sell' signals have a slight advantage, and there is some pressure on upward movement. In terms of resistance levels, the first resistance is at 84.5 yuan; if broken through, it will target 86.8 yuan, with noticeable room before reaching the 90-yuan mark, though rapid upward momentum in the short term will be difficult. For support levels, short-term support is seen at 75.7 yuan, and if that level fails, further support lies at 69.7 yuan.

For investors looking to position themselves in Kuaishou bull contracts, it is recommended to prioritize products with a recovery price near 70 yuan or even below 69 yuan to effectively reduce the risk of being called back and enhance safety in positioning. $HSKUASO@EP2603A.P (19013.HK)$$BIKUASO@EP2603A.P (19035.HK)$$JP#KUASORP2812C.P (66632.HK)$

4. Zijin Mining (02899.HK) $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ : Experiencing a significant pullback, investors are watching whether the area around 38 yuan could present a buying opportunity.

Simon: On January 30, Zijin Mining’s share price saw heightened volatility and a notable decline, closing at 41.9 yuan, with trading volume hitting a two-month high. The day's losses nearly wiped out gains made over the previous two to three days. Since the end of November last year, the stock has been on an overall uptrend, rising from around 32 yuan to a peak of 46.9 yuan. This decline represents a technical correction, but the short-term pullback exceeded market expectations. Investors remain optimistic about Zijin Mining's future prospects, viewing this drop as a short-term correction, and many are asking whether the area around 38 yuan could be a good entry point.

Technically, Zijin Mining shows slightly more 'sell' signals in the short term, with bearish bias in the near term. For support levels, key support is seen at 38.5 yuan; if this level breaks, further support lies at 36.3 yuan, while the 38-yuan area is becoming a focal point for potential entry. There is no clear short-term resistance guidance at present.

For investors considering entering, it is advised to be patient and closely observe whether the stock stabilizes around 38.5 yuan before deciding to enter; blindly bottom-fishing is not advisable at this time. $BIZIJIN@EC2604B.C (21590.HK)$$CIZIJIN@EC2604A.C (21922.HK)$$UB#ZIJINRC2610D.C (56127.HK)$$HS#ZIJINRC2610B.C (58916.HK)$

5. BYD Co., Ltd. (01211.HK) $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : Breaking below the Bollinger Bands daily midpoint, investors are focusing on downside potential, and bear contracts have become a key topic.

Simon: On January 30, BYD shares recorded a significant decline, closing at 97.75 yuan. The share price has broken below the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. Some investors are asking how low BYD might go if the decline continues. Meanwhile, many investors hold bear contracts on BYD, including some with a recovery price of 106 yuan.

From a technical perspective, BYD's short-term support level is at 94.6 yuan. If this position is breached, further support will be at 91.3 yuan. Regarding resistance levels, the short-term resistance level is 101.5 yuan, and if broken, it may rise to 105 yuan. For investors looking to trade bearish warrants on BYD, it is recommended to prioritize products with a call price above 105 yuan, such as targets priced at 106 yuan or higher, which can effectively avoid risks related to price rebounds triggering mandatory redemption clauses. $BP#BYD RP2806G.P (63725.HK)$$UB-BYD @EP2611A.P (24648.HK)$$BI-BYD @EP2611A.P (22322.HK)$

6. AIA (01299.HK) $AIA (01299.HK)$ : Closed above the upper Bollinger Band line on the daily chart, investors are watching for the possibility of breaking through the 100-yuan mark.

Simon: On January 30, AIA's share price showed relatively low volatility, with limited declines. The closing price was 90.35 yuan, just above the upper Bollinger Band line on the daily chart. Trading volume increased compared to previous periods, reflecting optimism among investors about AIA's future performance. Many inquired whether the stock could continue its upward momentum and challenge the key psychological level of 100 yuan.

Technical indicators show more 'sell' signals for AIA in the short term, indicating pressure for an upward movement. In terms of resistance levels, the first resistance is seen at 92.6 yuan, and if surpassed, it could rise further to 96.8 yuan. The stock needs to consecutively break through these two critical levels before attempting to reach the 100-yuan mark, but a rapid advance in the short term remains challenging. No significant pressure has appeared on the support side yet. $UB#AIA RC2706A.C (69178.HK)$$UB-AIA @EC2604A.C (21339.HK)$$HS-AIA @EC2603C.C (23722.HK)$$BI#AIA RC2612A.C (65957.HK)$

Friendly reminder

This analysis does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses presented may change at any time without prior notice. No responsibility is assumed for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this information. Technical analysis reflects only part of the technical conditions and should be combined with other sources to comprehensively evaluate asset performance. Decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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