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How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Feb 2 08:45

[Warrant Perspective] The Hang Seng Index faces technical resistance with a bearish bias, accumulating short-term adjustment pressure.

January 30th,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The day closed at 27,387.11 points, down 2.08% in a single day, with a turnover of 301.612 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility reached 5.2%, showing an overall rhythm of volatile adjustments.
From the perspective of technical indicators, the overall signal is 'Sell', with a signal strength of 9, indicating a bearish bias but not at an extreme level. The RSI indicator is at 67, in a neutral to slightly strong region, already close to the overbought edge, suggesting accumulated short-term adjustment pressure; the MACD signal is bearish and aligns with price movements, showing weak short-term momentum.
January 30th,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The day closed at 27,387.11 points, down 2.08% in a single day, with a turnover of 301.612 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility reached 5.2%, showing an overall rhythm of volatile adjustments. From the perspective of technical indicators, the overall signal is 'Sell', with a signal strength of 9, indicating a bearish bias but not at an extreme level. The RSI indicator is at 67, in a neutral to slightly strong region, already close to the overbought edge, suggesting accumulated short-term adjustment pressure; the MACD signal is bearish and aligns with price movements, showing weak short-term momentum. Looking at the moving average system, the latest price of the Hang Seng Index (27,387.11) is higher than MA10 (27,009.05), MA30 (26,457.49), and MA60 (26,231.13). The long-term moving averages remain in a favorable trend, but the short term is clearly under pressure. In terms of support and resistance, the support level to watch is 26,725 points (primary support). If it breaks below that, the next support is at 26,254 points (secondary support); resistance levels are first at 28,172 points, and if broken through, it can target 28,433 points. On January 30, blue chips generally closed lower, with technical indicators showing clear divergence. Some stocks showed signs of being oversold, while others faced overbought correction pressure, analyzed as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 606.00 yuan, down 2.57%. The stock price is slightly below MA10 (606.15 yuan), indicating slight short-term pressure. Technical indicators summary...
From the perspective of the moving average system, the latest Hang Seng Index price (27387.11) is higher than MA10 (27009.05), MA30 (26457.49), and MA60 (26231.13). The long-term moving averages still show a positive trend, but short-term pressure is evident.
January 30th,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The day closed at 27,387.11 points, down 2.08% in a single day, with a turnover of 301.612 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility reached 5.2%, showing an overall rhythm of volatile adjustments. From the perspective of technical indicators, the overall signal is 'Sell', with a signal strength of 9, indicating a bearish bias but not at an extreme level. The RSI indicator is at 67, in a neutral to slightly strong region, already close to the overbought edge, suggesting accumulated short-term adjustment pressure; the MACD signal is bearish and aligns with price movements, showing weak short-term momentum. Looking at the moving average system, the latest price of the Hang Seng Index (27,387.11) is higher than MA10 (27,009.05), MA30 (26,457.49), and MA60 (26,231.13). The long-term moving averages remain in a favorable trend, but the short term is clearly under pressure. In terms of support and resistance, the support level to watch is 26,725 points (primary support). If it breaks below that, the next support is at 26,254 points (secondary support); resistance levels are first at 28,172 points, and if broken through, it can target 28,433 points. On January 30, blue chips generally closed lower, with technical indicators showing clear divergence. Some stocks showed signs of being oversold, while others faced overbought correction pressure, analyzed as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 606.00 yuan, down 2.57%. The stock price is slightly below MA10 (606.15 yuan), indicating slight short-term pressure. Technical indicators summary...
In terms of support and resistance, the support level to watch is 26725 points (primary support); if it breaks below that, the next support level is 26254 points (secondary support). For resistance, the initial level to watch is 28172 points; a breakout above that could lead to 28433 points.
On January 30, blue-chip stocks generally closed lower, with technical indicators showing significant divergence. Some stocks exhibited oversold signs while others faced overbought pullback pressures. A detailed breakdown follows:
1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 606.00 yuan, down 2.57%. The stock price is slightly below MA10 (606.15 yuan), indicating minor short-term pressure. Technical indicators summarize a 'Buy' signal with strength 10 (Strong Buy). RSI is 49, close to neutral, and multiple oscillation indicators suggest oversold conditions, indicating potential for a rebound. Monitor the buying support near MA10.
2. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ : Closing price at 97.20 yuan, down 1.42%. The stock price is below MA10 (97.55 yuan) and MA30 (101.14 yuan), indicating weak short-term performance. Technical indicators summarize a 'Buy' signal with strength 11. RSI is 44, nearing the oversold range. While Williams %R and stochastic oscillators show sell signals, momentum indicators suggest possible bottoming from an oversold position, making it unwise to overly bearish.
3. $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ : Closing price at 169.20 yuan, down 2.37%. The stock price is slightly above MA10 (166.77 yuan) but below MA30 (155.83 yuan), showing a relatively tangled trend. Technical indicators summarize a 'Sell' signal with strength 8. RSI is 62, neutral but leaning bullish. Bollinger Bands and MACD signals are weak, indicating strong short-term resistance and the need to wait for indicator recovery.
4. $CCB (00939.HK)$ : Closing price at 7.91 yuan, down 3.06%. The stock price is slightly above MA10 (7.8 yuan), but the technical outlook is bearish. Technical indicators summarize a 'Strong Sell' signal with strength 11. RSI is 63, neutral but leaning bullish, but multiple oscillation indicators issue sell signals. Short-term caution is needed to prevent the risk of breaking through support levels.
5. $AIA (01299.HK)$ : Closing price at 90.35 yuan, down 0.66%. The stock price is higher than MA10 (85.39 yuan) and MA30 (83.98 yuan), maintaining a positive long-term trend. Technical indicators summarize a 'Sell' signal with strength 10. RSI is 76, entering the overbought range, with CCI and ADX indicators suggesting overbought risks and significant short-term adjustment pressure.
6. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ : Closing price at 432.20 yuan, down 2.70%. The stock price is slightly above MA10 (430.36 yuan), facing short-term pressure. Technical indicators summarize a 'Sell' signal with strength 9. RSI is 57, within the neutral range, with multiple moving average signals neutral but leaning weak. Volume accompanies the decline, so short-term attention should be paid to whether the MA10 support holds.
7. $PING AN (02318.HK)$ : Closing price at 72.70 yuan, down 0.82%. The stock price is higher than MA10 (69.46 yuan) and MA30 (68.31 yuan), showing a relatively resilient trend. Technical indicators summarize a 'Sell' signal with strength 8. RSI is 71, approaching overbought levels, with several oscillation indicators suggesting overbought conditions. A small pullback may occur in the short term.
8. $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Closing price at 97.75 yuan, down 3.98%. The stock price is below the MA10 (99.53 yuan) but above the MA30 (97.19 yuan), indicating significant short-term volatility. Technical indicators summarize a 'Buy' signal with strength 9; RSI at 51 remains neutral, while multiple indicators show oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a bottoming-out rebound. Support near the MA30 can be monitored.
9. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Closing price at 35.50 yuan, down 3.06%. The stock price is below both the MA10 (35.81 yuan) and MA30 (37.91 yuan), showing clear short-term oversold conditions. Technical indicators summarize a 'Buy' signal with strength 10; RSI at 37 enters the oversold range, and momentum indicators suggest weakening selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of a rebound in the following sessions.
10. $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Closing price at 136.60 yuan, slightly down 0.73%. The stock price is above both the MA10 (132.05 yuan) and MA30 (126.64 yuan), showing relatively stable trends. Technical indicators summarize a 'Strong Sell' signal with strength 11; RSI at 76 shows clear overbought conditions, with Bollinger Bands and MACD issuing sell signals. A pullback risk requires close attention.
Review of Warrants and Bull/Bear Products:
(1) Review of previous warrant and bull/bear products
Reviewing the Hang Seng Index-related warrant and bull/bear products recommended on January 26th, their performance was impressive: $JP#HSI RC28103.C (66685.HK)$ : Increased by 95% after two days, corresponding to a 3.97% rise in the Hang Seng Index after two days, demonstrating significant leverage effect; $JP-HSI @EC2605A.C (22977.HK)$ : Increased by 62% after two days, closely following the Hang Seng Index trend, delivering substantial returns; $UB#HSI RC2811Z.C (65182.HK)$ : Increased by 96% after two days, outperforming similar products slightly; $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$ : Increased by 65% after two days, steadily following the Hang Seng Index rebound.
January 30th,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The day closed at 27,387.11 points, down 2.08% in a single day, with a turnover of 301.612 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility reached 5.2%, showing an overall rhythm of volatile adjustments. From the perspective of technical indicators, the overall signal is 'Sell', with a signal strength of 9, indicating a bearish bias but not at an extreme level. The RSI indicator is at 67, in a neutral to slightly strong region, already close to the overbought edge, suggesting accumulated short-term adjustment pressure; the MACD signal is bearish and aligns with price movements, showing weak short-term momentum. Looking at the moving average system, the latest price of the Hang Seng Index (27,387.11) is higher than MA10 (27,009.05), MA30 (26,457.49), and MA60 (26,231.13). The long-term moving averages remain in a favorable trend, but the short term is clearly under pressure. In terms of support and resistance, the support level to watch is 26,725 points (primary support). If it breaks below that, the next support is at 26,254 points (secondary support); resistance levels are first at 28,172 points, and if broken through, it can target 28,433 points. On January 30, blue chips generally closed lower, with technical indicators showing clear divergence. Some stocks showed signs of being oversold, while others faced overbought correction pressure, analyzed as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 606.00 yuan, down 2.57%. The stock price is slightly below MA10 (606.15 yuan), indicating slight short-term pressure. Technical indicators summary...
Friendly reminder:Warrants and bull/bear certificates are derivatives with leverage characteristics. They come with both potential returns and risks, whether the market rises or falls. Investors should control their positions carefully and avoid over-reliance on leverage.
(2) Warrant and Bull/Bear Selection (Balancing Safety and Leverage Effects)
Based on Hang Seng Index technical trends, support/resistance levels, and product attributes, two high-quality products are selected with a focus on premium and leverage rationality, providing investors with references:
1. $JP#HSI RC2810C.C (60055.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 25.1 times, exercise/recovery price at 26,400 points. The key feature is high actual leverage with low premium, offering good value for money. Suitable for investors optimistic about Hang Seng Index holding above 26,400 support, with potential rebound. Note the risk near the recovery price.
2. $UB#HSI RC2810M.C (59542.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 25.1 times, exercise/recovery price at 26,400 points. The core advantage is the lowest premium with reasonable actual leverage, making it relatively stable. Suitable for investors seeking moderate leverage while avoiding high premium costs.
January 30th,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The day closed at 27,387.11 points, down 2.08% in a single day, with a turnover of 301.612 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility reached 5.2%, showing an overall rhythm of volatile adjustments. From the perspective of technical indicators, the overall signal is 'Sell', with a signal strength of 9, indicating a bearish bias but not at an extreme level. The RSI indicator is at 67, in a neutral to slightly strong region, already close to the overbought edge, suggesting accumulated short-term adjustment pressure; the MACD signal is bearish and aligns with price movements, showing weak short-term momentum. Looking at the moving average system, the latest price of the Hang Seng Index (27,387.11) is higher than MA10 (27,009.05), MA30 (26,457.49), and MA60 (26,231.13). The long-term moving averages remain in a favorable trend, but the short term is clearly under pressure. In terms of support and resistance, the support level to watch is 26,725 points (primary support). If it breaks below that, the next support is at 26,254 points (secondary support); resistance levels are first at 28,172 points, and if broken through, it can target 28,433 points. On January 30, blue chips generally closed lower, with technical indicators showing clear divergence. Some stocks showed signs of being oversold, while others faced overbought correction pressure, analyzed as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 606.00 yuan, down 2.57%. The stock price is slightly below MA10 (606.15 yuan), indicating slight short-term pressure. Technical indicators summary...
January 30th,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The day closed at 27,387.11 points, down 2.08% in a single day, with a turnover of 301.612 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility reached 5.2%, showing an overall rhythm of volatile adjustments. From the perspective of technical indicators, the overall signal is 'Sell', with a signal strength of 9, indicating a bearish bias but not at an extreme level. The RSI indicator is at 67, in a neutral to slightly strong region, already close to the overbought edge, suggesting accumulated short-term adjustment pressure; the MACD signal is bearish and aligns with price movements, showing weak short-term momentum. Looking at the moving average system, the latest price of the Hang Seng Index (27,387.11) is higher than MA10 (27,009.05), MA30 (26,457.49), and MA60 (26,231.13). The long-term moving averages remain in a favorable trend, but the short term is clearly under pressure. In terms of support and resistance, the support level to watch is 26,725 points (primary support). If it breaks below that, the next support is at 26,254 points (secondary support); resistance levels are first at 28,172 points, and if broken through, it can target 28,433 points. On January 30, blue chips generally closed lower, with technical indicators showing clear divergence. Some stocks showed signs of being oversold, while others faced overbought correction pressure, analyzed as follows: 1. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 606.00 yuan, down 2.57%. The stock price is slightly below MA10 (606.15 yuan), indicating slight short-term pressure. Technical indicators summary...
Risk Warning:The Hang Seng Index is in an adjustment phase. Whether choosing bull or bear certificates, closely monitor the key support and resistance levels of the index. Adjust trading strategies promptly if there is a breakout or breakdown, and avoid long-term holding.
As the Hang Seng Index adjusts, do you think the next move will test the 26,725-point support or rebound to challenge the 28,172-point resistance?
A: Test support. B: Rebound to challenge resistance. C: Range-bound fluctuation.
Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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