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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Jan 30 12:04

[Warrant Perspective] Multiple moving averages of Ctrip indicate a buy signal; is it short-term volatility or a rebound?

On January 29, $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$
It showed relatively weak performance among online travel and related consumer stocks, closing at 482.2 yuan on the day, with a single-day drop of 2.66%. The trading volume reached 2.016 billion yuan, showing moderate activity without clear signs of bottom fishing.
Compared to peers, the trend for Ctrip on January 29th was similar to $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ fairly similar to another company, both dropping by over 2.5%, presenting technical characteristics of 'oversold rebound'; whereas $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ only fell slightly by 0.38%, with an RSI as high as 68 nearing overbought levels, showing a much stronger trend than Ctrip’s; $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ dropped by 1.46%, exhibiting a neutral trend, while $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ edged up 0.16% against the market trend, making it the most stable stock among its peers.
Based on comprehensive technical indicators, Ctrip's technical system issued a 'Buy' signal with a strength of 9, which is considered a strong buy recommendation. The core driver came from the RSI indicator being in the oversold region at 38, suggesting that downward momentum in the short term has weakened, raising the possibility of a technical rebound.
On January 29, $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ It showed relatively weak performance among online travel and related consumer stocks, closing at 482.2 yuan on the day, with a single-day drop of 2.66%. The trading volume reached 2.016 billion yuan, showing moderate activity without clear signs of bottom fishing. Compared to peers, the trend for Ctrip on January 29th was similar to $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ fairly similar to another company, both dropping by over 2.5%, presenting technical characteristics of 'oversold rebound'; whereas $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ only fell slightly by 0.38%, with an RSI as high as 68 nearing overbought levels, showing a much stronger trend than Ctrip’s; $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ dropped by 1.46%, exhibiting a neutral trend, while $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ edged up 0.16% against the market trend, making it the most stable stock among its peers. Based on comprehensive technical indicators, Ctrip's technical system issued a 'Buy' signal with a strength of 9, which is considered a strong buy recommendation. The core driver came from the RSI indicator being in the oversold region at 38, suggesting that downward momentum in the short term has weakened, raising the possibility of a technical rebound. The RSI is at 38 (near the lower limit of the neutral range between 30-70, close to oversold). Overall oscillation indicators lean slightly bullish. Short-term oversold correction demand has emerged. Multiple moving averages are signaling a strong buy, but short-term average line pressure remains noticeable; any rebound will need to surpass MA10 first (...)
RSI is at 38 (at the lower limit of the 30-70 neutral range, near oversold), with overall volatility indicators leaning towards neutral with a slight bullish bias. Demand for short-term oversold recovery is evident. Multiple moving averages are signaling strong buy signals, but there is clear pressure from short-term moving averages, requiring a rebound to first break above MA10 (483.58 yuan).
On January 29, $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ It showed relatively weak performance among online travel and related consumer stocks, closing at 482.2 yuan on the day, with a single-day drop of 2.66%. The trading volume reached 2.016 billion yuan, showing moderate activity without clear signs of bottom fishing. Compared to peers, the trend for Ctrip on January 29th was similar to $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ fairly similar to another company, both dropping by over 2.5%, presenting technical characteristics of 'oversold rebound'; whereas $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ only fell slightly by 0.38%, with an RSI as high as 68 nearing overbought levels, showing a much stronger trend than Ctrip’s; $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ dropped by 1.46%, exhibiting a neutral trend, while $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ edged up 0.16% against the market trend, making it the most stable stock among its peers. Based on comprehensive technical indicators, Ctrip's technical system issued a 'Buy' signal with a strength of 9, which is considered a strong buy recommendation. The core driver came from the RSI indicator being in the oversold region at 38, suggesting that downward momentum in the short term has weakened, raising the possibility of a technical rebound. The RSI is at 38 (near the lower limit of the neutral range between 30-70, close to oversold). Overall oscillation indicators lean slightly bullish. Short-term oversold correction demand has emerged. Multiple moving averages are signaling a strong buy, but short-term average line pressure remains noticeable; any rebound will need to surpass MA10 first (...)
As of 10:49 AM today (30th), Trip.com's latest price was 485 yuan, with a temporary increase of 0.58%.Resistance levels are at 531 yuan (Resistance 1) and 585 yuan (Resistance 2). Short-term support levels are at 457 yuan (Support 1) and 379 yuan (Support 2). If it can hold above 457 yuan support, the probability of a rebound is expected to increase (current upward probability is 56%).
Review of the previously recommended warrant products:
Recommended on January 27th $HU-TRIP@EP2603A.P (20904.HK)$ , the increase reached 22% after 2 days, while the underlying stock fell by 3.44% during the same period. The put warrants perfectly matched the short-term decline in stock price, providing good swing trading opportunities for investors focusing on derivatives.
On January 29, $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ It showed relatively weak performance among online travel and related consumer stocks, closing at 482.2 yuan on the day, with a single-day drop of 2.66%. The trading volume reached 2.016 billion yuan, showing moderate activity without clear signs of bottom fishing. Compared to peers, the trend for Ctrip on January 29th was similar to $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ fairly similar to another company, both dropping by over 2.5%, presenting technical characteristics of 'oversold rebound'; whereas $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ only fell slightly by 0.38%, with an RSI as high as 68 nearing overbought levels, showing a much stronger trend than Ctrip’s; $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ dropped by 1.46%, exhibiting a neutral trend, while $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ edged up 0.16% against the market trend, making it the most stable stock among its peers. Based on comprehensive technical indicators, Ctrip's technical system issued a 'Buy' signal with a strength of 9, which is considered a strong buy recommendation. The core driver came from the RSI indicator being in the oversold region at 38, suggesting that downward momentum in the short term has weakened, raising the possibility of a technical rebound. The RSI is at 38 (near the lower limit of the neutral range between 30-70, close to oversold). Overall oscillation indicators lean slightly bullish. Short-term oversold correction demand has emerged. Multiple moving averages are signaling a strong buy, but short-term average line pressure remains noticeable; any rebound will need to surpass MA10 first (...)
Friendly reminder: Warrants are derivatives with strong leverage attributes, resulting in significant fluctuations in gains or losses. Whether buying calls or puts, investors should control their positions carefully and avoid blindly following trends.
Selected Warrant Products:
Based on technical analysis and indicator signals of Trip.com, two selected call warrants and two selected put warrants are presented, catering to different investors' swing trading needs. Key focus should be placed on premium, leverage, and implied volatility rationality:
1. Selected call warrants (corresponding to short-term rebound expectations):
$MS-TRIP@EC2607B.C (24926.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 4.7, exercise price at 531.38 yuan. The core advantage is the lowest premium, with implied volatility and leverage within a reasonable range, making it suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term rebound who want to control premium costs.
$JP-TRIP@EC2607B.C (24761.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 4.6, exercise price at 530.88 yuan, with relatively low premium. Compared to 24926, the exercise price is slightly lower, suitable for derivative investors expecting moderate rebounds and seeking stability.
2. Selected put warrants (corresponding to expectations of weak rebound and continued downward fluctuation):
$BI-TRIP@EP2603B.P (19962.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 11.4, exercise price at 420.88 yuan. The key advantage is the highest leverage and lowest implied volatility, suitable for investors predicting short-term stock price weakness and able to withstand high leverage fluctuations.
$MS-TRIP@EP2603A.P (20768.HK)$The actual leverage is 12.4, with a strike price of 420.68 yuan. The leverage and implied volatility are relatively balanced. Compared to 19962, the leverage is slightly higher, making it suitable for investors seeking short-term gains while being able to manage risks.
On January 29, $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ It showed relatively weak performance among online travel and related consumer stocks, closing at 482.2 yuan on the day, with a single-day drop of 2.66%. The trading volume reached 2.016 billion yuan, showing moderate activity without clear signs of bottom fishing. Compared to peers, the trend for Ctrip on January 29th was similar to $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ fairly similar to another company, both dropping by over 2.5%, presenting technical characteristics of 'oversold rebound'; whereas $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ only fell slightly by 0.38%, with an RSI as high as 68 nearing overbought levels, showing a much stronger trend than Ctrip’s; $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ dropped by 1.46%, exhibiting a neutral trend, while $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ edged up 0.16% against the market trend, making it the most stable stock among its peers. Based on comprehensive technical indicators, Ctrip's technical system issued a 'Buy' signal with a strength of 9, which is considered a strong buy recommendation. The core driver came from the RSI indicator being in the oversold region at 38, suggesting that downward momentum in the short term has weakened, raising the possibility of a technical rebound. The RSI is at 38 (near the lower limit of the neutral range between 30-70, close to oversold). Overall oscillation indicators lean slightly bullish. Short-term oversold correction demand has emerged. Multiple moving averages are signaling a strong buy, but short-term average line pressure remains noticeable; any rebound will need to surpass MA10 first (...)
On January 29, $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ It showed relatively weak performance among online travel and related consumer stocks, closing at 482.2 yuan on the day, with a single-day drop of 2.66%. The trading volume reached 2.016 billion yuan, showing moderate activity without clear signs of bottom fishing. Compared to peers, the trend for Ctrip on January 29th was similar to $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ fairly similar to another company, both dropping by over 2.5%, presenting technical characteristics of 'oversold rebound'; whereas $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ only fell slightly by 0.38%, with an RSI as high as 68 nearing overbought levels, showing a much stronger trend than Ctrip’s; $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ dropped by 1.46%, exhibiting a neutral trend, while $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ edged up 0.16% against the market trend, making it the most stable stock among its peers. Based on comprehensive technical indicators, Ctrip's technical system issued a 'Buy' signal with a strength of 9, which is considered a strong buy recommendation. The core driver came from the RSI indicator being in the oversold region at 38, suggesting that downward momentum in the short term has weakened, raising the possibility of a technical rebound. The RSI is at 38 (near the lower limit of the neutral range between 30-70, close to oversold). Overall oscillation indicators lean slightly bullish. Short-term oversold correction demand has emerged. Multiple moving averages are signaling a strong buy, but short-term average line pressure remains noticeable; any rebound will need to surpass MA10 first (...)
Risk warning: Exercise price and leverage will fluctuate with changes in the underlying stock price. Investors should check the latest data in real-time and plan their holding periods accordingly.
Ctrip has entered an oversold condition. Would you take this opportunity to position for a short-term rebound? A: Yes B: No.
Do you think Ctrip can hold the support level at 457 yuan in the short term? A: Yes B: No C: Hard to say.
Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #Ctrip #OnlineTravelSector #TechnicalAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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