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How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Jan 30 11:58

[Warrant Perspective] China Mobile's short-term fluctuations remain unbroken, warrant strategies require careful consideration

On January 29, $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$
The trend was relatively calm, closing at 80.9 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.859 billion yuan. The trading volume was moderate, showing neither significant increase nor decrease, reflecting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see state.
The closing price of 80.9 yuan stands just above the 10-day moving average (79.55 yuan), indicating some short-term support, but is simultaneously constrained by the dual pressures of the 30-day moving average (81.40 yuan) and the 60-day moving average (84.18 yuan). This represents a typical pattern of 'short-term stability with medium-term resistance,' which is one of the core reasons for the平淡走势 on January 29: resistance above remains unbroken while support below stays temporarily stable, leaving bulls and bears in temporary equilibrium.
On January 29, $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ The trend was relatively calm, closing at 80.9 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.859 billion yuan. The trading volume was moderate, showing neither significant increase nor decrease, reflecting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see state. The closing price of 80.9 yuan stands just above the 10-day moving average (79.55 yuan), indicating some short-term support, but is simultaneously constrained by the dual pressures of the 30-day moving average (81.40 yuan) and the 60-day moving average (84.18 yuan). This represents a typical pattern of 'short-term stability with medium-term resistance,' which is one of the core reasons for the平淡走势 on January 29: resistance above remains unbroken while support below stays temporarily stable, leaving bulls and bears in temporary equilibrium. The RSI indicator is at 47, right within the neutral range of 40-60, showing no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, further confirming the current volatile pattern. The balance of power between buyers and sellers is relatively equal, with neither side holding a clear advantage. Overall technical indicators give a 'buy' signal with a strength of 7, but the moving average signals 'sell.' Such divergence is not uncommon and often occurs at critical junctures when direction is being decided. At this time, blindly following trends is not advised; it’s more prudent to patiently await a breakout or pullback confirmation. On January 29, the telecom sector overall showed steady performance with minor fluctuations: $CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ : Closed at 5.42 yuan, unchanged like China Mobile, with a similar technical pattern. The share price also hovered near key moving averages, without significant...
The RSI indicator is at 47, right within the neutral range of 40-60, showing no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, further confirming the current volatile pattern. The balance of power between buyers and sellers is relatively equal, with neither side holding a clear advantage. Overall technical indicators give a 'buy' signal with a strength of 7, but the moving average signals 'sell.' Such divergence is not uncommon and often occurs at critical junctures when direction is being decided. At this time, blindly following trends is not advised; it’s more prudent to patiently await a breakout or pullback confirmation.
On January 29, $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ The trend was relatively calm, closing at 80.9 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.859 billion yuan. The trading volume was moderate, showing neither significant increase nor decrease, reflecting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see state. The closing price of 80.9 yuan stands just above the 10-day moving average (79.55 yuan), indicating some short-term support, but is simultaneously constrained by the dual pressures of the 30-day moving average (81.40 yuan) and the 60-day moving average (84.18 yuan). This represents a typical pattern of 'short-term stability with medium-term resistance,' which is one of the core reasons for the平淡走势 on January 29: resistance above remains unbroken while support below stays temporarily stable, leaving bulls and bears in temporary equilibrium. The RSI indicator is at 47, right within the neutral range of 40-60, showing no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, further confirming the current volatile pattern. The balance of power between buyers and sellers is relatively equal, with neither side holding a clear advantage. Overall technical indicators give a 'buy' signal with a strength of 7, but the moving average signals 'sell.' Such divergence is not uncommon and often occurs at critical junctures when direction is being decided. At this time, blindly following trends is not advised; it’s more prudent to patiently await a breakout or pullback confirmation. On January 29, the telecom sector overall showed steady performance with minor fluctuations: $CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ : Closed at 5.42 yuan, unchanged like China Mobile, with a similar technical pattern. The share price also hovered near key moving averages, without significant...
On January 29, the telecommunications sector performed steadily with minimal volatility:
$CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ : Closing at 5.42 yuan, unchanged like China Mobile, with a similar technical pattern; the stock price is hovering near key moving averages without a clear direction.
$CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$ : Slightly stronger performance, closing up 0.12% at 8.11 yuan. Importantly, its share price remains above the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, showing more positive technical signals.
Overall, the sector lacks clear leading momentum. As the sector leader, China Mobile's performance generally reflects the overall state of the sector—short-term consolidation while awaiting directional clarity. Investors should focus on whether any individual stocks within the sector can break the deadlock and lead the overall strengthening.
As of 11:30 AM today (January 30), China Mobile's latest price was 79.75 yuan, down 1.42% temporarily.Key support levels are at 77.7 yuan (primary support) and 74.4 yuan (secondary support). The 77.7 yuan level is close to the 10-day moving average, and if it holds, there may still be room for short-term upward fluctuations. Resistance levels are seen at 84.1 yuan (primary resistance) and 87.4 yuan (secondary resistance), especially the 84.1 yuan level, which coincides with the 60-day moving average, presenting relatively strong resistance. Breaking through this level would open up further upside potential.
Review and Selection of Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts
Let’s review the performance of the China Mobile warrants recommended earlier: The four bull warrants recommended on January 27 all showed solid gains two days later, with $UB-CMOB@EC2609A.C (24989.HK)$ posting a 30% increase, $HS#C MOBRC2709A.C (60502.HK)$ and $UB#C MOBRC2710D.C (57221.HK)$ both rising by 18%, $BI-CMOB@EC2609A.C (24413.HK)$ gaining 20%. Correspondingly, the underlying stock rose by 3.06% over two days, clearly reflecting the leverage effect of the warrants. However, it is important to remember that higher leverage also means higher risk.
On January 29, $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ The trend was relatively calm, closing at 80.9 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.859 billion yuan. The trading volume was moderate, showing neither significant increase nor decrease, reflecting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see state. The closing price of 80.9 yuan stands just above the 10-day moving average (79.55 yuan), indicating some short-term support, but is simultaneously constrained by the dual pressures of the 30-day moving average (81.40 yuan) and the 60-day moving average (84.18 yuan). This represents a typical pattern of 'short-term stability with medium-term resistance,' which is one of the core reasons for the平淡走势 on January 29: resistance above remains unbroken while support below stays temporarily stable, leaving bulls and bears in temporary equilibrium. The RSI indicator is at 47, right within the neutral range of 40-60, showing no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, further confirming the current volatile pattern. The balance of power between buyers and sellers is relatively equal, with neither side holding a clear advantage. Overall technical indicators give a 'buy' signal with a strength of 7, but the moving average signals 'sell.' Such divergence is not uncommon and often occurs at critical junctures when direction is being decided. At this time, blindly following trends is not advised; it’s more prudent to patiently await a breakout or pullback confirmation. On January 29, the telecom sector overall showed steady performance with minor fluctuations: $CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ : Closed at 5.42 yuan, unchanged like China Mobile, with a similar technical pattern. The share price also hovered near key moving averages, without significant...
Today's Featured Products:
Based on the current oscillation pattern of China Mobile, we have selected two warrants with different directions and high cost-performance for your reference:
1. $BI-CMOB@EC2609A.C (24413.HK)$: Leverage of 10.3 times, exercise price of 88.88 yuan. The core advantage is its relatively low implied volatility and reasonable premium, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about China Mobile breaking through resistance levels in the short term. The leverage is not excessively high, thus the risk is relatively controllable.
2. $BI-CMOB@EP2604A.P (21625.HK)$: Leverage of 20.3 times, exercise price of 75.83 yuan. The biggest highlight is that both the premium and implied volatility are the lowest among currently available products, making it suitable for investors who believe China Mobile may pull back to support levels in the short term. Note that due to higher leverage, fluctuations will be relatively intense.
Risk Warning:Warrants are derivatives with much higher volatility than the underlying stock. Regardless of whether you're buying call or put warrants, it's important to control your position size and avoid going all-in. Implied volatility and premium are key indicators when selecting warrants; products with low premiums and appropriate implied volatility generally offer better cost-performance. This was the core criterion for our selection this time.
What’s your view on China Mobile's short-term trend? A. Optimistic about breaking through the resistance at 84.1 yuan. B. Expecting a pullback to the support level at 77.7 yuan. C. Continuing to oscillate, staying on the sidelines for now.
If China Mobile tests the support at 77.7 yuan, what would you do? A. Consider call warrants on dips. B. Position put warrants on rallies. C. Stay inactive and wait for confirmation of support.
Come share your thoughts in the comment section.
For more analysis, be sure to follow Jenny's daily updates on "HK Stock Warrants"!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #ChinaMobile #TelecommunicationsSector #TechnicalAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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