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How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Jan 29 10:18

[Warrant Perspective] Divergence in Alibaba’s Technical Indicators: How Should Bull and Bear Warrants Respond to the Current Market Situation?

On January 28, the technology sector as a whole showed signs of recovery, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$
with both Alibaba and its major peers recording positive gains. However, the signals from technical indicators varied significantly, requiring investors to respond accordingly.
Alibaba closed at 173.50 yuan for the day, up 2.12% in a single day, with a trading volume of 17.569 billion yuan. Technically, the stock price remained firmly above the MA10 (165.60 yuan) and MA30 (154.17 yuan), slightly higher than the MA60 (155.05 yuan), indicating some support for the medium-term trend.
On January 28, the technology sector rebounded as a whole, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ with both the main stocks and key peers posting positive returns. However, there are significant differences in the signals from technical indicators, requiring investors to differentiate their strategies. Alibaba closed at 173.50 yuan for the day, rising 2.12% in a single day, with a trading volume of 17.569 billion yuan. Technically, the stock price remains firmly above the MA10 (165.60 yuan), MA30 (154.17 yuan), and slightly above the MA60 (155.05 yuan), indicating certain support for the medium-term trend. However, the RSI index reached 66, nearing the overbought zone. The comprehensive technical signal suggests a 'sell' with intensity reaching 'strong sell,' reflecting market concerns about excessive short-term gains. In yesterday's (January 28) 'BOC Visit' segment,[Share Link: January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, Alibaba]Niki Zhu, Director at BOC International, commented on Alibaba, noting its outstanding performance as a leading tech company, having risen from around 140 yuan at the beginning of the year to near 173 yuan. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$ Other Stocks: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at 116.30 yuan (up 2.47%), holding steady above short-term moving averages but with neutral signals, showing an unclear trend...
However, the RSI index reached 66, approaching the overbought zone. The overall technical signal was a 'sell' with an intensity reaching 'strong sell,' reflecting concerns about an excessive short-term rally.
On January 28, the technology sector rebounded as a whole, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ with both the main stocks and key peers posting positive returns. However, there are significant differences in the signals from technical indicators, requiring investors to differentiate their strategies. Alibaba closed at 173.50 yuan for the day, rising 2.12% in a single day, with a trading volume of 17.569 billion yuan. Technically, the stock price remains firmly above the MA10 (165.60 yuan), MA30 (154.17 yuan), and slightly above the MA60 (155.05 yuan), indicating certain support for the medium-term trend. However, the RSI index reached 66, nearing the overbought zone. The comprehensive technical signal suggests a 'sell' with intensity reaching 'strong sell,' reflecting market concerns about excessive short-term gains. In yesterday's (January 28) 'BOC Visit' segment,[Share Link: January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, Alibaba]Niki Zhu, Director at BOC International, commented on Alibaba, noting its outstanding performance as a leading tech company, having risen from around 140 yuan at the beginning of the year to near 173 yuan. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$ Other Stocks: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at 116.30 yuan (up 2.47%), holding steady above short-term moving averages but with neutral signals, showing an unclear trend...
In yesterday’s (January 28) 'BOC Guest' segment, January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, AlibabaNiki Zhu Hong, Director of BOC International, also commented on Alibaba, stating that as an outstanding tech leader, it has risen notably from around 140 yuan at the beginning of the year to near 173 yuan. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$
Other stocks: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Zijin Mining closed at 116.30 yuan (up 2.47%), holding steady above the short-term moving averages but with neutral signals, making the trend unclear; $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Another stock closed at 98.35 yuan (up 1.86%), fluctuating around the MA10 and below the mid-to-long term moving averages, but received a 'buy' signal, making it one of the relatively strong performers among its peers in terms of technicals; $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Yet another stock closed at 621.00 yuan (up 2.31%), breaking through the short-term moving averages but constrained by the MA60, with neutral signals. $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ Closing at 156.10 yuan (up 0.58%), the stock price is far above all moving averages, but the RSI has reached 68, entering the overbought zone, showing technical divergence with a rise in risk. $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
As of 9:55 AM today (29th), Alibaba's latest quote was 172.1 yuan, temporarily down 0.81%.The support level to watch is 161.8 yuan, while the resistance level is seen at 176.9 yuan; whether it can break through the resistance will require observation of trading volume cooperation.
Warrant Review: Recommended products from earlier performed well.
Reviewing the Alibaba-related warrant products selected on January 22, despite the underlying stock only slightly rising by 0.24%, multiple products saw considerable gains, reflecting the leverage effect of derivatives. $UB#ALIBARC2608S.C (54175.HK)$ The best performer saw a 12% increase two days later. $JPALIBA@EC2603H.C (21302.HK)$ Up 8%. $UB#ALIBARC2707A.C (54176.HK)$ Up 6%, providing opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on short-term fluctuations.
On January 28, the technology sector rebounded as a whole, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ with both the main stocks and key peers posting positive returns. However, there are significant differences in the signals from technical indicators, requiring investors to differentiate their strategies. Alibaba closed at 173.50 yuan for the day, rising 2.12% in a single day, with a trading volume of 17.569 billion yuan. Technically, the stock price remains firmly above the MA10 (165.60 yuan), MA30 (154.17 yuan), and slightly above the MA60 (155.05 yuan), indicating certain support for the medium-term trend. However, the RSI index reached 66, nearing the overbought zone. The comprehensive technical signal suggests a 'sell' with intensity reaching 'strong sell,' reflecting market concerns about excessive short-term gains. In yesterday's (January 28) 'BOC Visit' segment,[Share Link: January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, Alibaba]Niki Zhu, Director at BOC International, commented on Alibaba, noting its outstanding performance as a leading tech company, having risen from around 140 yuan at the beginning of the year to near 173 yuan. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$ Other Stocks: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at 116.30 yuan (up 2.47%), holding steady above short-term moving averages but with neutral signals, showing an unclear trend...
Warrant Selection: Corresponding to different market expectations.
Based on Alibaba's current technicals, two products with different directions have been carefully selected for investors to reference based on their own judgment, keeping in mind that derivatives are highly volatile and positions should be managed carefully.
1. $UB#ALIBARC2707B.C (59537.HK)$: With an actual leverage of 10.8 times and a recovery price of 160 yuan, the product’s advantage lies in its relatively high actual leverage among similar products and lower premium. If Alibaba can break through the resistance level of 176.9 yuan and continue its upward trend, it is expected to deliver strong leverage effects. This product is suitable for investors who anticipate short-term strength in Alibaba.
2. $SG#ALIBARP2810S.P (61344.HK)$: With an actual leverage of 23.1 times and a recovery price of 180 yuan, considering Alibaba’s RSI is nearing overbought levels and the overall signal leans toward selling, if the stock price pulls back to test the support level at 161.8 yuan, this product could capture short-term adjustment opportunities. It is suitable for investors who expect short-term weakness in Alibaba.
Between these two selected warrants, would you lean towards the 'Bull Certificate' or the 'Bear Certificate'?
On January 28, the technology sector rebounded as a whole, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ with both the main stocks and key peers posting positive returns. However, there are significant differences in the signals from technical indicators, requiring investors to differentiate their strategies. Alibaba closed at 173.50 yuan for the day, rising 2.12% in a single day, with a trading volume of 17.569 billion yuan. Technically, the stock price remains firmly above the MA10 (165.60 yuan), MA30 (154.17 yuan), and slightly above the MA60 (155.05 yuan), indicating certain support for the medium-term trend. However, the RSI index reached 66, nearing the overbought zone. The comprehensive technical signal suggests a 'sell' with intensity reaching 'strong sell,' reflecting market concerns about excessive short-term gains. In yesterday's (January 28) 'BOC Visit' segment,[Share Link: January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, Alibaba]Niki Zhu, Director at BOC International, commented on Alibaba, noting its outstanding performance as a leading tech company, having risen from around 140 yuan at the beginning of the year to near 173 yuan. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$ Other Stocks: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at 116.30 yuan (up 2.47%), holding steady above short-term moving averages but with neutral signals, showing an unclear trend...
On January 28, the technology sector rebounded as a whole, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ with both the main stocks and key peers posting positive returns. However, there are significant differences in the signals from technical indicators, requiring investors to differentiate their strategies. Alibaba closed at 173.50 yuan for the day, rising 2.12% in a single day, with a trading volume of 17.569 billion yuan. Technically, the stock price remains firmly above the MA10 (165.60 yuan), MA30 (154.17 yuan), and slightly above the MA60 (155.05 yuan), indicating certain support for the medium-term trend. However, the RSI index reached 66, nearing the overbought zone. The comprehensive technical signal suggests a 'sell' with intensity reaching 'strong sell,' reflecting market concerns about excessive short-term gains. In yesterday's (January 28) 'BOC Visit' segment,[Share Link: January 28th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, Huahong Semiconductor, Alibaba]Niki Zhu, Director at BOC International, commented on Alibaba, noting its outstanding performance as a leading tech company, having risen from around 140 yuan at the beginning of the year to near 173 yuan. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$ Other Stocks: $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at 116.30 yuan (up 2.47%), holding steady above short-term moving averages but with neutral signals, showing an unclear trend...
With Alibaba near 173 yuan, would you 'hold the stock and wait' or 'reduce positions to hedge risk'?
Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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