How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
[Options Insights] The Hang Seng Index hits a four-year high; whether it can hold steady going forward hinges on trading volume.
January 28,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The market delivered a strong performance, closing at 27,826.91 points for the day, up 2.58% and firmly above the 27,700 level, marking a four-year high.
![January 28,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The market delivered a strong performance, closing at 27,826.91 points for the day, up 2.58% and firmly above the 27,700 level, marking a four-year high. Yesterday (the 28th), we were guests on "Bank of China."[Share Link: January 28 [Bank of China Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, HuaHong Semiconductor, Alibaba]During this session, Niki Zhu, a director at BOC International, hit the nail on the head in her assessment of the Hang Seng Index, and the broader market indeed staged a strong breakout. Whether it's the index itself or the core blue-chip stocks, the implied volatilities of the corresponding warrants have risen in tandem. For investors who had positioned themselves with long-call warrants over the past two days, this has been a "double delight": they've not only captured gains from the stock price rally but also reaped additional returns from the surge in implied volatility—truly a pleasant trading day. $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ However, from a technical perspective, some concerns warrant attention: the Hang Seng Index has risen for six consecutive sessions, approaching the key 28,000-point level, with the RSI currently at 69—near overbought territory. Meanwhile, capital flows are diverging: over the past five trading days, roughly HK$120 million has flowed out of long positions, while more than HK$100 million has entered short positions, signaling that investors are beginning to adjust their positions at higher levels. On the technical front, several moving averages are generating strong sell signals, and multiple...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260129/web-1769649211084-L88aNZHF3L.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Yesterday (the 28th), we were guests on 'Bank of China.'January 28 [Bank of China Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, HuaHong Semiconductor, AlibabaDuring this session, Niki Zhu, a director at BOC International, hit the nail on the head in her assessment of the Hang Seng Index, and the broader market indeed staged a strong breakout. Whether it's the index itself or the core blue-chip stocks, the implied volatilities of the corresponding warrants have risen in tandem. For investors who had positioned themselves with long-call warrants over the past two days, this has been a 'double delight': they've not only captured gains from the stock price rally but also reaped additional returns from the surge in implied volatility—truly a pleasant trading day. $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$
However, from a technical perspective, some concerns warrant attention: the Hang Seng Index has risen for six consecutive sessions, approaching the key 28,000-point level, with the RSI currently at 69—near overbought territory. Meanwhile, capital flows are diverging: over the past five trading days, roughly HK$120 million has flowed out of long positions, while more than HK$100 million has entered short positions, signaling that investors are beginning to adjust their positions at higher levels.
On the technical front, several moving averages are issuing strong sell signals, while multiple oscillators remain neutral; meanwhile, the MACD is signaling a buy. With mixed bullish and bearish signals, the likelihood of short-term volatility has increased.
![January 28,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The market delivered a strong performance, closing at 27,826.91 points for the day, up 2.58% and firmly above the 27,700 level, marking a four-year high. Yesterday (the 28th), we were guests on "Bank of China."[Share Link: January 28 [Bank of China Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, HuaHong Semiconductor, Alibaba]During this session, Niki Zhu, a director at BOC International, hit the nail on the head in her assessment of the Hang Seng Index, and the broader market indeed staged a strong breakout. Whether it's the index itself or the core blue-chip stocks, the implied volatilities of the corresponding warrants have risen in tandem. For investors who had positioned themselves with long-call warrants over the past two days, this has been a "double delight": they've not only captured gains from the stock price rally but also reaped additional returns from the surge in implied volatility—truly a pleasant trading day. $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ However, from a technical perspective, some concerns warrant attention: the Hang Seng Index has risen for six consecutive sessions, approaching the key 28,000-point level, with the RSI currently at 69—near overbought territory. Meanwhile, capital flows are diverging: over the past five trading days, roughly HK$120 million has flowed out of long positions, while more than HK$100 million has entered short positions, signaling that investors are beginning to adjust their positions at higher levels. On the technical front, several moving averages are generating strong sell signals, and multiple...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260129/web-1769649199033-BZlWLzSqw3.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
From a key-level perspective, the Hang Seng Index finds support at 26,940 and 26,422 points, while resistance lies at 28,430 and 28,885 points. Going forward, it will be crucial to monitor the strength of any break above the 28,000-point psychological threshold, as well as the accompanying trading volume.
On January 28, most blue-chip stocks advanced, with the financial sector leading the gains; however, individual stock chart patterns varied significantly, and some have already shown clear overbought signals.
Financial Sector: Risks Lurk Beneath the Strength $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$The stock rose 2.23%, closing at RMB 137.50, with its price well above the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. However, the RSI has climbed to 82, entering clearly overbought territory, and the overall technical indicators are signaling a 'strong sell.' Investors should exercise caution when chasing the stock at these elevated levels.$AIA (01299.HK)$It closed up 2.78% at 88.85 yuan, firmly holding above all major moving averages. The RSI stands at 68, nearing overbought territory, and the technical signal is "sell."$CCB (00939.HK)$The stock rose 3.35%, closing at RMB 8.03, breaking above both the 10-day and 30-day moving averages and approaching the 60-day resistance level. The RSI stands at 56, in a neutral-to-strong zone, with a relatively steady price action.
Technology Sector: Rebound, but Divergent Patterns $TENCENT (00700.HK)$It closed up 2.31% at 621.00 yuan, successfully breaking above the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, but remains capped by the 60-day moving average. The RSI stands at 53, in neutral territory, with technical signals leaning toward neutral.$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$It edged up 1.86%, with the stock price slightly above the 10-day moving average but below both the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. The RSI stands at 40, in neutral territory, making it one of the few tech stocks to issue a "buy" signal.$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$The stock rebounded 2.14% in tandem, with the price marginally holding above the 10-day moving average; however, the longer-term moving averages remain under pressure. The RSI at 36 has yet to reach oversold territory, and the technical signals all point to a "buy."
Among the remaining blue-chip stocks,$HKEX (00388.HK)$, Alibaba (09988) technical signals all indicate "sell",$PING AN (02318.HK)$Maintain neutrality,$WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$A "buy" signal has been issued, but the sector's overall technical picture is mixed, making it difficult to establish a clear, unified trend.
Warrant Review and Picks: Seize Volatility Opportunities, Beware of Upside Risks at High Levels
(1) Review of Earlier Warrants
Looking back at the two Hang Seng Index bull certificates recommended on January 22, their performance was quite impressive.$HS#HSI RC28118.C (64058.HK)$and$BI#HSI RC2808E.C (64016.HK)$Both recorded a 14% gain within two days, while the Hang Seng Index rose by only 0.51% over the same period, clearly demonstrating the leveraged nature of warrant products and validating the earlier strategy of capitalizing on volatility opportunities.
![January 28,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The market delivered a strong performance, closing at 27,826.91 points for the day, up 2.58% and firmly above the 27,700 level, marking a four-year high. Yesterday (the 28th), we were guests on "Bank of China."[Share Link: January 28 [Bank of China Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, HuaHong Semiconductor, Alibaba]During this session, Niki Zhu, a director at BOC International, hit the nail on the head in her assessment of the Hang Seng Index, and the broader market indeed staged a strong breakout. Whether it's the index itself or the core blue-chip stocks, the implied volatilities of the corresponding warrants have risen in tandem. For investors who had positioned themselves with long-call warrants over the past two days, this has been a "double delight": they've not only captured gains from the stock price rally but also reaped additional returns from the surge in implied volatility—truly a pleasant trading day. $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ However, from a technical perspective, some concerns warrant attention: the Hang Seng Index has risen for six consecutive sessions, approaching the key 28,000-point level, with the RSI currently at 69—near overbought territory. Meanwhile, capital flows are diverging: over the past five trading days, roughly HK$120 million has flowed out of long positions, while more than HK$100 million has entered short positions, signaling that investors are beginning to adjust their positions at higher levels. On the technical front, several moving averages are generating strong sell signals, and multiple...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260129/web-1769649395703-BBR0cv7mqb.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
(II) Today's Warrant Picks
Given the current market environment—where the Hang Seng Index is trading in a narrow range at elevated levels and bullish/bearish signals are mixed—we have selected two products with distinct directional biases and superior characteristics, for investors to consider in light of their own judgment.
1. $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$: The effective leverage is 11.7x, with a strike price of 28,341 points. The product's key advantage lies in its implied volatility, which is among the lowest in its peer group, while maintaining relatively high leverage. Under conditions of sustained market strength and stable volatility, it can track the underlying index's performance more efficiently, making it well-suited for investors who are confident that the Hang Seng Index will break above 28,000 points.
2. $BI-HSI @EP2603C.P (21317.HK)$: The effective leverage is 18.7x, with a strike price of 25,671 points. Both the premium and the implied volatility are among the lowest in its peer group, offering excellent value for money. Given the emergence of overbought signals on the Hang Seng Index and growing divergence among market participants, this product can serve as a hedge against upside risks and is well-suited for investors who remain cautious about potential market corrections.
![January 28,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The market delivered a strong performance, closing at 27,826.91 points for the day, up 2.58% and firmly above the 27,700 level, marking a four-year high. Yesterday (the 28th), we were guests on "Bank of China."[Share Link: January 28 [Bank of China Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, HuaHong Semiconductor, Alibaba]During this session, Niki Zhu, a director at BOC International, hit the nail on the head in her assessment of the Hang Seng Index, and the broader market indeed staged a strong breakout. Whether it's the index itself or the core blue-chip stocks, the implied volatilities of the corresponding warrants have risen in tandem. For investors who had positioned themselves with long-call warrants over the past two days, this has been a "double delight": they've not only captured gains from the stock price rally but also reaped additional returns from the surge in implied volatility—truly a pleasant trading day. $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ However, from a technical perspective, some concerns warrant attention: the Hang Seng Index has risen for six consecutive sessions, approaching the key 28,000-point level, with the RSI currently at 69—near overbought territory. Meanwhile, capital flows are diverging: over the past five trading days, roughly HK$120 million has flowed out of long positions, while more than HK$100 million has entered short positions, signaling that investors are beginning to adjust their positions at higher levels. On the technical front, several moving averages are generating strong sell signals, and multiple...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260129/web-1769649418111-UFlWnNC0EQ.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![January 28,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The market delivered a strong performance, closing at 27,826.91 points for the day, up 2.58% and firmly above the 27,700 level, marking a four-year high. Yesterday (the 28th), we were guests on "Bank of China."[Share Link: January 28 [Bank of China Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, HuaHong Semiconductor, Alibaba]During this session, Niki Zhu, a director at BOC International, hit the nail on the head in her assessment of the Hang Seng Index, and the broader market indeed staged a strong breakout. Whether it's the index itself or the core blue-chip stocks, the implied volatilities of the corresponding warrants have risen in tandem. For investors who had positioned themselves with long-call warrants over the past two days, this has been a "double delight": they've not only captured gains from the stock price rally but also reaped additional returns from the surge in implied volatility—truly a pleasant trading day. $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$$HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ However, from a technical perspective, some concerns warrant attention: the Hang Seng Index has risen for six consecutive sessions, approaching the key 28,000-point level, with the RSI currently at 69—near overbought territory. Meanwhile, capital flows are diverging: over the past five trading days, roughly HK$120 million has flowed out of long positions, while more than HK$100 million has entered short positions, signaling that investors are beginning to adjust their positions at higher levels. On the technical front, several moving averages are generating strong sell signals, and multiple...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260129/web-1769649418113-zMH5pPZkZD.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Risk Warning: Warrants have expiration dates and are subject to leverage risk, and changes in implied volatility can also affect their prices. Investors should carefully assess their own risk tolerance and allocate investments accordingly.
With the Hang Seng Index nearing 28,000 points, will you choose to "add to your long positions in call options," "build a put-option hedge," or "wait and see"?
Recently, warrant volatility has delivered attractive returns. Do you prefer "high-leverage products" or "low-implied-volatility products"?
Jump into the comments and share your thoughts. Want to see more analysis? Don't forget to follow "HK Stock Warrants Jenny" for daily updates!
Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein are subject to change at any time without notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used in conjunction with other information to conduct a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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