Follow Jenny’s analysis: How to smartly utilize CBBCs at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's key turning point?

Recently, the share price performance of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has warmed up in sync with its booming Initial Public Offering (IPO) market. As of January 28, 2026, the HKEX share price was reported at HKD 438, with an increase of 1.77%. Technically, it shows a bullish consolidation pattern, on the verge of breaking through a key resistance zone. Behind this trend lies the market’s reevaluation of HKEX's attractiveness as a financing platform. Entering 2026, the HKEX IPO market has achieved a 'strong start,' with 12 companies listed from the beginning of the year until January 26, raising a total of approximately HKD 34.75 billion, significantly higher than the same period last year. The lineup of new stocks led by 'hard tech' companies in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and other fields, along with active participation from international long-term funds, jointly built optimistic expectations for HKEX’s future performance.

Reviewing market perspectives and technical trends, the January 15 episode of the 'Hong Kong Stocks Podcast' had already provided forward-looking analysis on HKEX's key price levels. At that time, host Simon pointed out that HKD 440 was not a core resistance level; the real key resistance was near HKD 443. If effectively broken, the subsequent target could reach HKD 461. This view aligns highly with the latest technical data: the current primary resistance (R1) is confirmed at HKD 445, and the core resistance (R2) is at HKD 453. The program also specifically reminded that if investors consider deploying bear certificates, to avoid the risk of stock price breakthroughs, they should select products with a recovery price above HKD 460, which remains a worthy risk management approach at the current price level.January 15th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Ganfeng Lithium, NetEase, Hong Kong Exchange, China Construction Bank

From the perspective of specific technical indicators, the HKEX stock price has stabilized above all major moving averages, but the 14-day RSI is 59, indicating neutral momentum and not yet entering the overbought region. This means that before challenging the resistance level, there may still be some upward momentum. The key range is very clear: below, HKD 425 and HKD 416 form a solid support zone; above, HKD 445 to HKD 453 is the core resistance area determining the short-term direction. Success will depend on the coordination of market sentiment and trading volume.

In the derivatives market, the recent performance of related CBBCs and bull/bear certificates vividly demonstrates their volatility elasticity. For example, in the two trading days after January 26, when the underlying HKEX stock rose by 3.22%, some derivatives showed significant increases: Morgan Call Warrant (22028) surged 50%, BOC Bull Certificate (65912) $BI#HKEX RC2612A.C (65912.HK)$ rose 39%, UBS Group Call Warrant (23422) $UB-HKEX@EC2606B.C (23422.HK)$ rose 32%. This reflects the characteristic of structured products providing higher capital efficiency when following the underlying stock trend. Of course, this also means that if the market moves contrary to expectations, the associated risks will be amplified.

Detailed Analysis of Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts in the Current Market Conditions

Given the current stock price is tightly approaching the resistance level, selecting derivatives requires integrating their core terms closely with the aforementioned support/resistance levels to conduct risk assessments.

1. Bullish choice: Can it break through the range of 445-453 dollars?

If investors believe that HKEX can leverage IPO benefits to break through resistance, they may consider call warrants or bull contracts.

Call warrants (CBBC): Such as Societe Generale Call Warrant (16460) $SG-HKEX@EC2604A.C (16460.HK)$ and UBS Group Call Warrant (15854) $UB-HKEX@EC2604A.C (15854.HK)$ , both with an exercise price of 518.5 dollars, much higher than the current stock price, offering about 12x high leverage. These deep out-of-the-money products are suitable for investors who have strong confidence in a significant short-term rise in the underlying stock. Their advantage is no forced recall risk, but they suffer from high time value decay, and require substantial gains in the underlying stock to become in-the-money.

Bull contracts: Such as UBS Group Bull Contract (59885) (recall price at 392 dollars) and Bank of China Bull Contract (65912) $BI#HKEX RC2612A.C (65912.HK)$ (recall price at 395 dollars). Their recall prices are far below the first support level of 425 dollars, providing more than 9x leverage while appearing to offer a relatively high safety margin. However, Bull/Bear contracts carry the unique 'recall risk,' meaning if the underlying stock plunges to hit the recall price, the product will terminate early, potentially causing significant losses.

2. Bearish choice: Do you believe the resistance is unbreakable?

If the stock price is expected to face resistance at HKD 445 and retreat, consider focusing on put warrants or bear contracts.

Put Warrants: such as HSBC Put Warrant (24217) $HS-HKEX@EP2605A.P (24217.HK)$ and Bank of China Put Warrant (24260) $BI-HKEX@EP2605A.P (24260.HK)$ , both with an exercise price of HKD 388.68. These provide leveraged downside exposure for the underlying stocks, making them suitable for hedging or directional bearish bets.

Bear Contracts: such as UBS Group Bear Contract (69819) $UB#HKEX RP2807B.P (69819.HK)$ (recovery price HKD 510) and HSBC Bear Contract (68593) (recovery price HKD 515). Their recovery prices are set above the resistance level of HKD 453, offering higher actual leverage. Choosing these products means betting that the stock price won't just fail to break through resistance but may not even approach the recovery price, requiring precise timing and price level judgment.

The Hong Kong Exchanges' stock price has once again approached the key resistance level near HKD 445. What do you think will happen this time?

A. Breakout upwards

B. Retreat after facing resistance

C. Continue fluctuating

Which side are you on? Come discuss in the comments section! Also, feel free to follow Jenny's Warrants HKEX for more practical insights into warrants.

#Hong Kong Stock Exchange #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Warrants #Bull and Bear Certificates #Hong Kong Stock IPO #Implied Volatility #Derivatives #Short-term Strategies #Hong Kong Stocks

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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