Pop Mart's stock has risen for several consecutive days! Labubu's annual sales exceed 100 million
Short-term Analysis of Pop Mart: Repurchase Confidence Drives Rebound, How to Deploy Warrants Before Key Resistance Level?
$POP MART (09992.HK)$Entering 2026, Pop Mart (09992) has captured market attention with a strong rebound driven by management-initiated share repurchases. On January 19 and 21, the company made consecutive moves, spending nearly 350 million yuan in its first share repurchase in two years, which was widely interpreted by the market as a strong signal of confidence in the company’s current value. Boosted by this, the stock price has rebounded over 23% from its low on January 19, adding nearly 60 billion yuan to its market capitalization. As of the close on January 27, the stock price stood at 216.2 yuan, with short-term technicals entering a critical decision-making phase.According to the latest data today (January 28), Pop Mart's share price closed at 224.8 yuan, up 3.98%.
I. Market View: Repurchase Boosts Confidence, IP Value Reassessment
The core driver of this round of market movement is the restoration of market confidence. In its research report and 'BOC Guest' column, BOC International clearly pointed out that previous pressure on the stock price was mainly due to excessive market concerns about the fading popularity of the Labubu single IP. Niki, Director at BOC International, analyzed that investors had been waiting for an entry opportunity for some time, and management's tangible repurchase action sent the most direct positive signal, effectively reversing market sentiment. Fundamentally, BOC International expects that with new product launches, Labubu will remain a key pillar in 2026 sales while other IPs are expected to improve performance through overseas expansion, forecasting revenue and net profit growth of 32.8% and 37.6%, respectively, for this year.January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea
This perspective aligns with the market's 'correction' process. Recently, non-Labubu series products, such as SKULLPANDA in collaboration with the American TV series 'Wednesday,' and the new PUCKY product with a built-in electronic wooden fish, have received enthusiastic market responses, demonstrating the company’s platform-based IP operation capabilities rather than reliance on a single hit product. Huachuang Securities also pointed out that the company's IP platform operation capability is outstanding, forming a sustainably extendable ecosystem.
II. Technical Analysis: Strong Rebound Faces Resistance Test
Technically, Pop Mart’s short-term trend is strong but has reached a key area. According to Investing.com’s comprehensive analysis, its moving average system shows a 'strong buy' bullish arrangement pattern. However, the 14-day RSI has risen to 82.66, an overbought level, and the Williams %R indicator also issues similar warnings, indicating that upward momentum in the short term may require digestion and consolidation.
Based on the analysis from 'HK Stocks Podcast' and current data, the key price levels are as follows:
* Recent Resistance Level (R1): The primary resistance is in the 228-230 yuan range. This level is not only the previous technical high point but also the short-term target mentioned in 'HK Stocks Podcast,' which stated, 'Breaking through 205 yuan could lead to testing 230 yuan.'
* Core Resistance Level (R2): Stronger resistance above is near 250 yuan.
* Immediate Support Level (S1): The first support below is in the 199-205 yuan region, where multiple moving averages converge and represent the previously broken platform. If it breaks down further, it may test the second support zone of 185-190 yuan mentioned in 'HK Stocks Podcast.'
* Important Support Level (S2): Around 182 yuan forms the long-term trend defense line.
III. Derivatives Review: Leverage Effect Shows Power in Rebound Markets
In the rebound rally after January 22, related derivatives fully demonstrated their characteristics. When the underlying stock rose by 5.63% over two days, some warrant products significantly amplified gains:
This demonstrates that in a market with a clear direction, structured products have the potential to amplify volatility, but their risks also increase proportionally.
IV. Analysis of Product Terms and Match with Current Market Conditions
With the stock price currently in the overbought region and facing key resistance, investors considering deployment need to carefully match product terms with the key levels of the underlying stock.
Bullish Direction Choices:
* Call warrants (CBBCs): Suitable for investors who believe the stock price can effectively break through the resistance at HKD 228 and move higher. For example, BOC call warrant (23339). $BIPOMRT@EC2605A.C (23339.HK)$ Its exercise price is HKD 240.12, consistent with the recommended background mentioned in 'BOC as Guest,' making it suitable as an aggressive tool during the early stage of a rebound or after confirmation of a breakout. The advantage lies in the absence of mandatory recall risk, while time decay remains the primary cost.
* Bull contracts: Suitable for investors who expect the stock price to consolidate above the support level of HKD 199 and rally again. For instance, UBS bull contract (57407). $UB#POMRTRC2609D.C (57407.HK)$ (Recall price at HKD 180), its recall price is below the second support level, offering a relatively high safety margin and approximately 4.8x actual leverage. Investors should be cautious about the risk of the underlying stock unexpectedly falling below the recall price, leading to product termination.
Options for bearish direction:
* Put warrants: Appropriate for investors expecting the stock price to significantly retrace from the current overbought region and potentially test support levels at HKD 199 or even HKD 182. For example, Societe Generale put warrant (23066) (exercise price at HKD 178), with its exercise price close to a long-term strong support level.
* Bear contracts: Suitable for investors anticipating that the stock price will struggle to break through the resistance zone of HKD 228-250 and instead decline. For instance, BOC bear contract (60705) (recall price at HKD 246), with the recall price set below the core resistance level, offering approximately 6.3x leverage.
V. Summary and Risk Notice
Overall, Pop Mart's short-term trend is at a pivotal juncture between fundamental confidence and technical overbought conditions. The stock’s performance around the HKD 228-230 level will be key in the near term. Derivatives are tools for capturing short-term fluctuations but their high leverage demands precision in timing and directional judgment, alongside risks such as time value decay and (for bull/bear contracts) mandatory recall risk. Investors must clearly assess their view on the stock's direction, magnitude, and timeframe, choose terms that strictly match, and always prioritize risk management.
Interactive Questions
With Pop Mart currently approaching a critical resistance level, which operational strategy do you prefer?
A. Optimistic about a breakout, consider deploying call warrants or bull contracts
B. Bearish on a pullback, consider deploying put warrants or bear contracts
C. Stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer direction
Feel free to share your choice and insights in the comments section, or follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for more warrant market analysis.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be evaluated comprehensively with additional data, and trading decisions should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Pop Mart technical analysis support and resistance levels warrants bull and bear contracts share repurchase IP operation derivatives short-term strategy Hong Kong stocks
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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