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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Jan 27 11:40

[Warrant Perspective] $204 becomes the battleground for NetEase's bulls and bears; short-term support at $200 to be tested

January 26th,$NTES-S (09999.HK)$
NetEase closed at $208.4, up 0.68% on the day with a trading volume of $778 million. Overall volatility remains manageable, with a 5-day range of 8.3%. The current price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, compared to the previous high of $232.6, and is now in an adjustment phase around the $200 level. The market’s key debate centers on whether $204 will form an effective bottom.
Indicators are noteworthy: the RSI index stands at 40, remaining in the neutral zone without entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, MACD also gives a buy signal. The overall technical indicator suggests a 'Strong Buy,' with a strength score as high as 13 points, indicating that technical rebound momentum is gradually building.
January 26th,$NTES-S (09999.HK)$ NetEase closed at $208.4, up 0.68% on the day with a trading volume of $778 million. Overall volatility remains manageable, with a 5-day range of 8.3%. The current price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, compared to the previous high of $232.6, and is now in an adjustment phase around the $200 level. The market’s key debate centers on whether $204 will form an effective bottom. Indicators are noteworthy: the RSI index stands at 40, remaining in the neutral zone without entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, MACD also gives a buy signal. The overall technical indicator suggests a 'Strong Buy,' with a strength score as high as 13 points, indicating that technical rebound momentum is gradually building. However, it is important to note that the stock price remains below both the MA10 ($213.68) and MA30 ($216.14) short-term moving averages, meaning the short-term bearish pattern has not yet fully reversed. On January 26, there was significant divergence within the sector, with uneven performances across individual stocks, contrasting sharply with NetEase. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at $599.5, up 0.76% for the day, showing a trend similar to NetEase, also below the short-term moving averages. The RSI is 40, with the overall signal being 'Buy' and a strength score of 10, indicating synchronized oscillation adjustments. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at $116.0, up 1.05%, one of the few resilient performers in the sector...
However, it should be noted that the stock price remains below the two short-term moving averages, MA10 (213.68 yuan) and MA30 (216.14 yuan), indicating that the short-term weak trend has not been completely reversed.
January 26th,$NTES-S (09999.HK)$ NetEase closed at $208.4, up 0.68% on the day with a trading volume of $778 million. Overall volatility remains manageable, with a 5-day range of 8.3%. The current price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, compared to the previous high of $232.6, and is now in an adjustment phase around the $200 level. The market’s key debate centers on whether $204 will form an effective bottom. Indicators are noteworthy: the RSI index stands at 40, remaining in the neutral zone without entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, MACD also gives a buy signal. The overall technical indicator suggests a 'Strong Buy,' with a strength score as high as 13 points, indicating that technical rebound momentum is gradually building. However, it is important to note that the stock price remains below both the MA10 ($213.68) and MA30 ($216.14) short-term moving averages, meaning the short-term bearish pattern has not yet fully reversed. On January 26, there was significant divergence within the sector, with uneven performances across individual stocks, contrasting sharply with NetEase. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at $599.5, up 0.76% for the day, showing a trend similar to NetEase, also below the short-term moving averages. The RSI is 40, with the overall signal being 'Buy' and a strength score of 10, indicating synchronized oscillation adjustments. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at $116.0, up 1.05%, one of the few resilient performers in the sector...
On January 26, there was significant divergence within the sector, with uneven performance among individual stocks, forming a stark contrast to NetEase:
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 599.5 yuan, up 0.76% for the day. The trend is similar to NetEase's, also below the short-term moving averages, with an RSI of 40 and a comprehensive signal of 'Buy,' strength 10 out of 10, reflecting a synchronized consolidation pattern.
$JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at 116.0 yuan, up 1.05%, one of the few resilient performers in the sector. The RSI is 53, which is neutral, with a comprehensive signal of 'Neutral' and strength rated at 9 out of 10, showing a relatively independent trend.
$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ 、 $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ They fell by 2.44%, 3.26%, and 1.96% respectively. Among them, Bilibili and Alibaba both showed 'Strong Sell' signals, reflecting continued selling pressure on certain stocks.
Overall, the Chinese internet sector remains in a phase of volatile consolidation, with only a few individual stocks showing technical buy-on-dip signals. NetEase’s strong buy signal is relatively scarce within the sector.
As of 11:13 AM today (January 27), NetEase's latest price was 206.8 yuan, down 0.77% temporarily. Short-term support is around the key 200-yuan level; if this position fails, it may drop further to 191 yuan. On the upside, it needs to first break through the key resistance at 218 yuan, after which it could move towards the range of 220 yuan or even 225 yuan. From our [HK Stock Broadcast].January 26 [HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, NetEase, China Shenhua, CNOOC Services, HSBC, Zijin MiningIt was previously mentioned that some investors holding positions have already deployed call warrants with an exercise price of 260.19 yuan, reflecting expectations for a subsequent rebound. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$$CHINA OILFIELD (02883.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$
1. Product Review
Reviewing the NetEase-related warrant and bull/bear products mentioned on January 20, these related products delivered solid gains despite the underlying stock falling 3.24% over two days. $JP-NTES@EP2608A.P (24127.HK)$ 、 $UB-NTES@EP2608A.P (24274.HK)$The two-day increase reached 13%,$UB#NTES RP2704A.P (68181.HK)$with a gain of 29%, aligning with the short-term adjustment rhythm, providing investors with an effective hedging tool.
January 26th,$NTES-S (09999.HK)$ NetEase closed at $208.4, up 0.68% on the day with a trading volume of $778 million. Overall volatility remains manageable, with a 5-day range of 8.3%. The current price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, compared to the previous high of $232.6, and is now in an adjustment phase around the $200 level. The market’s key debate centers on whether $204 will form an effective bottom. Indicators are noteworthy: the RSI index stands at 40, remaining in the neutral zone without entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, MACD also gives a buy signal. The overall technical indicator suggests a 'Strong Buy,' with a strength score as high as 13 points, indicating that technical rebound momentum is gradually building. However, it is important to note that the stock price remains below both the MA10 ($213.68) and MA30 ($216.14) short-term moving averages, meaning the short-term bearish pattern has not yet fully reversed. On January 26, there was significant divergence within the sector, with uneven performances across individual stocks, contrasting sharply with NetEase. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at $599.5, up 0.76% for the day, showing a trend similar to NetEase, also below the short-term moving averages. The RSI is 40, with the overall signal being 'Buy' and a strength score of 10, indicating synchronized oscillation adjustments. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at $116.0, up 1.05%, one of the few resilient performers in the sector...
2. Current product selection
Based on current technical trends and volatility expectations, two NetEase-related warrant products have been carefully selected for investor reference:
$UB-NTES@EP2603A.P (20940.HK)$: Actual leverage of 9.9 times, strike price of 178.788 yuan. The core advantage lies in a relatively high leverage level, suitable for investors expecting short-term fluctuations, allowing pairing with the underlying stock for risk hedging.
$MS-NTES@EP2603A.P (20769.HK)$: Actual leverage of 11.1 times, same strike price of 178.788 yuan, with both premium and implied volatility among the lowest in similar products, offering excellent cost-performance, ideal for investors seeking stable hedging.
January 26th,$NTES-S (09999.HK)$ NetEase closed at $208.4, up 0.68% on the day with a trading volume of $778 million. Overall volatility remains manageable, with a 5-day range of 8.3%. The current price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, compared to the previous high of $232.6, and is now in an adjustment phase around the $200 level. The market’s key debate centers on whether $204 will form an effective bottom. Indicators are noteworthy: the RSI index stands at 40, remaining in the neutral zone without entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, MACD also gives a buy signal. The overall technical indicator suggests a 'Strong Buy,' with a strength score as high as 13 points, indicating that technical rebound momentum is gradually building. However, it is important to note that the stock price remains below both the MA10 ($213.68) and MA30 ($216.14) short-term moving averages, meaning the short-term bearish pattern has not yet fully reversed. On January 26, there was significant divergence within the sector, with uneven performances across individual stocks, contrasting sharply with NetEase. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at $599.5, up 0.76% for the day, showing a trend similar to NetEase, also below the short-term moving averages. The RSI is 40, with the overall signal being 'Buy' and a strength score of 10, indicating synchronized oscillation adjustments. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at $116.0, up 1.05%, one of the few resilient performers in the sector...
January 26th,$NTES-S (09999.HK)$ NetEase closed at $208.4, up 0.68% on the day with a trading volume of $778 million. Overall volatility remains manageable, with a 5-day range of 8.3%. The current price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, compared to the previous high of $232.6, and is now in an adjustment phase around the $200 level. The market’s key debate centers on whether $204 will form an effective bottom. Indicators are noteworthy: the RSI index stands at 40, remaining in the neutral zone without entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, MACD also gives a buy signal. The overall technical indicator suggests a 'Strong Buy,' with a strength score as high as 13 points, indicating that technical rebound momentum is gradually building. However, it is important to note that the stock price remains below both the MA10 ($213.68) and MA30 ($216.14) short-term moving averages, meaning the short-term bearish pattern has not yet fully reversed. On January 26, there was significant divergence within the sector, with uneven performances across individual stocks, contrasting sharply with NetEase. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at $599.5, up 0.76% for the day, showing a trend similar to NetEase, also below the short-term moving averages. The RSI is 40, with the overall signal being 'Buy' and a strength score of 10, indicating synchronized oscillation adjustments. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at $116.0, up 1.05%, one of the few resilient performers in the sector...
Risk Warning: Warrant products possess leverage characteristics; implied volatility and time decay may affect returns. Investors should allocate positions reasonably based on their risk tolerance.
Do you think NetEase can hold the 200-yuan mark? Would you consider short-term positioning in NetEase put warrants or call warrants?
Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #NetEase #ChineseInternet #TechnicalAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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