Short-term Analysis of Pop Mart: Battle for Key Technical Levels Amid Institutional Divergence

Recently, the share price performance of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has been a tale of two extremes. After experiencing a deep correction of nearly 30% in Q4 2025, the stock rebounded strongly at the beginning of 2026, with significant cumulative gains. Behind this dramatic reversal lies a complex interplay of share buybacks with real money, the launch of blockbuster products, and fierce divergence among institutional funds. Currently, the stock price is hovering near a critical technical level, and judging the short-term trend is not only tied to understanding the company’s fundamentals but also hinges on the delicate balance of market sentiment.

I. Market Views: Confidence Restoration Interwoven with Long-term Divergence

Market views on Pop Mart are forming a unique contradiction: In the short term, institutions such as BOC International have clearly turned positive in their stance, attempting to restore market confidence; however, over a longer horizon, the flow of institutional funds shows significant divergence.

Short-term Perspective: BOC International’s Positive Outlook and Confidence Restoration. On the January 20 episode of [BOC Guest], Niki, a director at BOC International, clearly expressed a positive view on Pop Mart's rebound. She pointed out that Pop Mart's share price had corrected from highs (previously mentioned falling from above 300 yuan to below 200 yuan, even down to around 170 yuan), attracting interest from long-term followers. The management's first share repurchase in more than two years, conducted on January 19 and 21, utilizing approximately 250 million yuan, was interpreted by her as a 'strong vote of confidence supporting the stock price with real money.' Additionally, market trends for new IP products were viewed as a positive factor. Host Simon concluded that although the technical picture was 'neutral' at the time, these positive signals increased investor confidence in buying related products to bet on a rebound. This view fully aligns with BOC International’s subsequent research report released on January 21-22. Although the report lowered the target price from 405.6 yuan to 291.9 yuan due to concerns about waning Labubu popularity and slowing growth, the core conclusion was that 'most concerns were an overreaction,' and it argued that the share repurchase could restore market confidence. It projected robust revenue and net profit growth of 32.8% and 37.6%, respectively, for 2026, reiterating a 'Buy' rating.

II. Technical Analysis: Rally Hits Strong Resistance, Short-Term Overbought Conditions Require Consolidation

Following a strong 'V-shaped' rebound, Pop Mart's technical chart shows typical characteristics of a 'strong trend encountering resistance.' The stock price has quickly risen to near a key resistance level, with multiple indicators signaling short-term risks.

The key resistance zone is the core determinant of whether the rebound can escalate into a reversal. Currently, the stock faces its first important resistance level at 237 yuan. This aligns closely with the significant pressure area calculated based on the stock’s rise from its low point. If it can break through this position effectively with high volume, upward momentum may strengthen, challenging the second resistance level at 251 yuan. Conversely, if the price repeatedly meets resistance here, investors should be cautious as this rebound might merely be a technical pullback after a deep correction.

The key support zone serves as the defensive cornerstone for the rebound's success. For the bulls, defending clear lines is crucial. The first support at 199 yuan is not only a previous consolidation platform but also the retest confirmation point after breaking through during this rally, making it highly significant. The more critical second support at 188 yuan can be viewed as the lifeline of this uptrend—if broken, it could indicate a breakdown in the rebound structure, with the potential for the stock to test new lows.

It is particularly important to note that due to the rapid recent gains, some technical indicators have entered overbought territory, suggesting the accumulation of substantial profit-taking positions. Meanwhile, moving average signals are showing 'strong sell' indications, conflicting with oscillators issuing 'buy' signals. These conflicting technical signals, combined with differing institutional views, jointly point toward one conclusion: the probability of a short-term technical pullback or high-level consolidation to digest overbought conditions is increasing.

III. Review of Warrants and Callable Bull/Bear Contracts: Leverage Efficiency and Market Rhythm

In the derivatives market, products related to Pop Mart have fully demonstrated their characteristics during this rebound. Looking back at several products mentioned on January 21, Pop Mart’s underlying stock rose approximately 12.96% over the following two trading days. During the same period, bullish derivative performances were even more notable: BNP Paribas call warrants (24806) surged 28%, while UBS bull contracts and Bank of China bull contracts (65842) recorded gains of about 57% and 61%, respectively.

IV. In-depth Analysis of Current Warrant and Bull/Bear Certificate Product Terms

Given the current complex situation where the stock price is near key resistance levels and technical indicators are contradictory, selecting derivatives requires precise alignment between product terms and key technical levels.

Bullish Direction Choices (Speculating on Price Breaking Through Resistance Zone):

* Call warrant products (no forced recall risk, but subject to time decay): Currently recommended UBS call warrants (23479) $UBPOMRT@EC2605A.C (23479.HK)$ And BOC call warrant (23339). $BIPOMRT@EC2605A.C (23339.HK)$ The exercise price is uniformly set at HKD 240.12. This exercise price is slightly higher than the first resistance level of HKD 237. Its design intent is primarily to capture the potential upside after the stock price confirms a valid breakout above HKD 237, targeting higher levels such as HKD 251. This continues the product strategy mentioned in [BOC Guest]. Choosing this type of product means investors need to assess the validity of the breakout and be willing to bear the time value decay if the breakout fails and the stock price moves sideways.

* Bull certificate products (high leverage, but beware of forced recall risk): Recommended UBS Group bull certificate (57407) $UB#POMRTRC2609D.C (57407.HK)$ and HSBC bull certificate (57271) $HS#POMRTRC2609E.C (57271.HK)$ with recall prices set at HKD 180 and HKD 181, respectively. This pricing falls below the key technical support level of HKD 188, meaning there is very little safety buffer. If the stock price pulls back and breaks below the HKD 188 support effectively, the product is highly likely to hit the recall price, resulting in forced recall and posing extremely high risks. The actual leverage of over 4.5 times is tempting, but it is only suitable for aggressive investors who strongly believe that the stock price will hold above HKD 199.

Bearish directional choice (betting on a pullback after encountering resistance):

* Put warrant products (offering downside risk hedging tools): Recommended Societe Generale put warrant (23066) and Bank of China put warrant (15457), with strike prices near HKD 178 and HKD 179.9, respectively. These strike prices are slightly lower than the second support level of HKD 188, making them suitable for investors who believe the stock price, after becoming overbought, will break below the key support level for a deeper correction.

* Bear certificate products (high safety margin bearish tools): Recommended UBS Group bear certificate (62725), with a recall price of HKD 239. This recall price is slightly above the first resistance level of HKD 237, providing a clear and relatively close safety margin. If investors believe the stock price cannot effectively break above HKD 237 and will soon reverse downward, this product offers a highly leveraged bearish option.

Quick Q&A:

1. Do you think Pop Mart can break through the HKD 237 resistance in the short term? Bullish / Bearish / Uncertain

2. In the current environment, if you were to trade derivatives, would you prioritize risk control or seek higher leverage returns? Risk Control / Pursue Returns. Follow [HK Stock Warrants Jenny] for daily analysis of Hong Kong stock derivatives data and market trends.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#Pop Mart# #09992# #Technical Analysis# #Support and Resistance Levels# #Warrants# #Bull and Bear Contracts# #Stock Repurchases# #Bank of China Visiting# #Institutional Divergence# #Derivatives Terms#

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