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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Jan 26 09:50

[Warrant Perspective] The Bollinger Bands for the technology index are narrowing, signaling a potential breakout after volatility?

January 23$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
The market closed at 5,798.01 points for the day, with a slight increase of 0.62%. The 5-day volatility was 3.1%, and the trading volume reached 61.428 billion yuan. In terms of technical indicators, the overall signal is neutral with a strength of 8; multiple moving averages are issuing strong sell signals, while oscillation indicators mostly remain neutral. Indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Cloud suggest buying, with mixed bullish and bearish signals reflecting unclear short-term direction.
January 23$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The day closed at 5798.01 points, with a slight increase of 0.62% in a single day, a 5-day volatility range of 3.1%, and a turnover of 61.428 billion yuan. In terms of technical indicators, the overall signal is neutral, with a strength of 8; multiple moving averages are issuing strong sell signals, while oscillators mostly remain neutral. Indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Clouds lean towards buying, with mixed bullish and bearish signals indicating unclear short-term direction. Stock performance is clearly polarized and can be divided into two trends: (1) Stocks with oversold rebound potential $TENCENT (00700.HK)$Closed at 595.00 yuan, down slightly by 0.42% in a single day, with the price below the 10-day line (612.9 yuan) and the 60-day line (619.08 yuan). The RSI indicator is 40, entering the oversold zone, with the overall technical signal suggesting a buy (strength 9). Most oscillators indicate oversold conditions, showing potential for bottoming out and rebounding.$NTES-S (09999.HK)$Closed at 207.00 yuan, down 0.96%, also below the 10-day line, with an RSI of 39 nearing oversold levels. The rate of change indicator shows severe oversold conditions, with signs of bottoming out gradually emerging. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Closed at 97.55 yuan, up slightly by 0.57%, with the price still under pressure from the 10-day line (99.99 yuan) and the 30-day line (101.69 yuan). The RSI is 42, close to the oversold zone, and the Williams %R indicator suggests oversold conditions. The technical buy signal strength reaches 10...
Individual stock performances showed clear divergence, falling into two distinct patterns:
(1) Stocks with oversold rebound potential
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 595.00 yuan, down slightly by 0.42% for the day. The stock price is below the 10-day line (612.9 yuan) and the 60-day line (619.08 yuan). The RSI indicator at 40 has entered the oversold zone, and the overall technical summary signal suggests buying (strength 9), with most oscillators indicating oversold conditions, implying potential bottoming out and a rebound. $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ Closed at 207.00 yuan, down 0.96%, also below the 10-day line. The RSI at 39 is nearing oversold territory, and the rate-of-change indicator shows severe oversold conditions, with signs of bottom formation gradually appearing.
$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 97.55 yuan, up slightly by 0.57%. The stock price remains pressured by the 10-day line (99.99 yuan) and the 30-day line (101.69 yuan). The RSI at 42 is close to the oversold zone, and Williams %R indicates oversold conditions. The technical buy signal strength reaches 10, suggesting high expectations for a rebound. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ This stock performed the strongest, closing at 36.24 yuan, surging 2.84%. Although the RSI at 34 is in oversold territory, the momentum indicator confirms upward momentum. The buy signal strength is 10, making the rebound logic relatively clear.
(2) Stocks showing overbought warnings after rebound
$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ Closed at 160.50 yuan, up slightly by 0.31%. The stock price remains above the 10-day line (149.44 yuan), but the RSI at 75 has entered the overbought zone. The overall technical summary signal indicates a strong sell (strength 11), with indicators like CCI signaling overbought conditions, increasing the risk of a pullback. $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Closed at 262.60 yuan, up 2.18%. The rebound momentum is strong, but the RSI at 71 indicates overbought conditions. The strong sell signal strength is 11, with the Bollinger Bands suggesting that the recent rally may be excessive, leading to significant profit-taking pressure.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ 、 $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ They rose 2.25% and 2.72%, respectively, with share prices above the 10-day line. However, their RSI reached 68 and 65, nearing overbought levels; technical signals indicate a sell (strength 8), suggesting adjustment pressure after the rebound. $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Closed at 114.80 yuan, up slightly by 0.79%, contending near the 10-day line (114.51 yuan). The RSI of 54 is in the neutral zone, with technical signals being neutral as bulls and bears battle fiercely.
As of 9:36 AM today (the 26th), the Tech Index was at 5,743 points, down temporarily by 0.94%. The current support levels for the index are 5,640 points (first level) and 5,474 points (second level), while resistance levels are at 5,956 points (first level) and 6,122 points (second level).
Review and Selection of Warrant and Bull/Bear Products
(1) Review of Previous Products
Two Tech Index bull contracts recommended on January 21 performed impressively: $SG#HSTECRC2606A.C (65743.HK)$ A rise of 11% within two days, $UB#HSTECRC2609A.C (67474.HK)$ With a two-day increase of 13%, compared to the Tech Index's rise of only 0.90%, fully reflecting the leverage effect and delivering good returns to investors.
January 23$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The day closed at 5798.01 points, with a slight increase of 0.62% in a single day, a 5-day volatility range of 3.1%, and a turnover of 61.428 billion yuan. In terms of technical indicators, the overall signal is neutral, with a strength of 8; multiple moving averages are issuing strong sell signals, while oscillators mostly remain neutral. Indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Clouds lean towards buying, with mixed bullish and bearish signals indicating unclear short-term direction. Stock performance is clearly polarized and can be divided into two trends: (1) Stocks with oversold rebound potential $TENCENT (00700.HK)$Closed at 595.00 yuan, down slightly by 0.42% in a single day, with the price below the 10-day line (612.9 yuan) and the 60-day line (619.08 yuan). The RSI indicator is 40, entering the oversold zone, with the overall technical signal suggesting a buy (strength 9). Most oscillators indicate oversold conditions, showing potential for bottoming out and rebounding.$NTES-S (09999.HK)$Closed at 207.00 yuan, down 0.96%, also below the 10-day line, with an RSI of 39 nearing oversold levels. The rate of change indicator shows severe oversold conditions, with signs of bottoming out gradually emerging. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Closed at 97.55 yuan, up slightly by 0.57%, with the price still under pressure from the 10-day line (99.99 yuan) and the 30-day line (101.69 yuan). The RSI is 42, close to the oversold zone, and the Williams %R indicator suggests oversold conditions. The technical buy signal strength reaches 10...
(II) Today’s Selected Warrants
Considering the volatile pattern of the Tech Index, two superior products have been selected for investor reference:
1. Tech Index $JPHSTEC@EC2606A.C (23959.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 6.4x, strike price at 6,000 points. The product's core advantage lies in its ideal leverage level and implied volatility performance, suitable for investors optimistic about the Tech Index testing the resistance level (5,956 points). Attention should be paid to pressure near the strike price.
2. Hang Seng Tech Index$SG#HSTECRC2606A.C (65743.HK)$: Actual leverage of 14.5x, recovery level at 5500 points, with the lowest premium level and relatively higher actual leverage. Previous performance has proven good tracking ability, suitable for investors seeking high leverage and able to withstand certain fluctuations, but strict attention must be paid to the risk of recovery levels.
January 23$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The day closed at 5798.01 points, with a slight increase of 0.62% in a single day, a 5-day volatility range of 3.1%, and a turnover of 61.428 billion yuan. In terms of technical indicators, the overall signal is neutral, with a strength of 8; multiple moving averages are issuing strong sell signals, while oscillators mostly remain neutral. Indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Clouds lean towards buying, with mixed bullish and bearish signals indicating unclear short-term direction. Stock performance is clearly polarized and can be divided into two trends: (1) Stocks with oversold rebound potential $TENCENT (00700.HK)$Closed at 595.00 yuan, down slightly by 0.42% in a single day, with the price below the 10-day line (612.9 yuan) and the 60-day line (619.08 yuan). The RSI indicator is 40, entering the oversold zone, with the overall technical signal suggesting a buy (strength 9). Most oscillators indicate oversold conditions, showing potential for bottoming out and rebounding.$NTES-S (09999.HK)$Closed at 207.00 yuan, down 0.96%, also below the 10-day line, with an RSI of 39 nearing oversold levels. The rate of change indicator shows severe oversold conditions, with signs of bottoming out gradually emerging. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Closed at 97.55 yuan, up slightly by 0.57%, with the price still under pressure from the 10-day line (99.99 yuan) and the 30-day line (101.69 yuan). The RSI is 42, close to the oversold zone, and the Williams %R indicator suggests oversold conditions. The technical buy signal strength reaches 10...
January 23$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The day closed at 5798.01 points, with a slight increase of 0.62% in a single day, a 5-day volatility range of 3.1%, and a turnover of 61.428 billion yuan. In terms of technical indicators, the overall signal is neutral, with a strength of 8; multiple moving averages are issuing strong sell signals, while oscillators mostly remain neutral. Indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Clouds lean towards buying, with mixed bullish and bearish signals indicating unclear short-term direction. Stock performance is clearly polarized and can be divided into two trends: (1) Stocks with oversold rebound potential $TENCENT (00700.HK)$Closed at 595.00 yuan, down slightly by 0.42% in a single day, with the price below the 10-day line (612.9 yuan) and the 60-day line (619.08 yuan). The RSI indicator is 40, entering the oversold zone, with the overall technical signal suggesting a buy (strength 9). Most oscillators indicate oversold conditions, showing potential for bottoming out and rebounding.$NTES-S (09999.HK)$Closed at 207.00 yuan, down 0.96%, also below the 10-day line, with an RSI of 39 nearing oversold levels. The rate of change indicator shows severe oversold conditions, with signs of bottoming out gradually emerging. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Closed at 97.55 yuan, up slightly by 0.57%, with the price still under pressure from the 10-day line (99.99 yuan) and the 30-day line (101.69 yuan). The RSI is 42, close to the oversold zone, and the Williams %R indicator suggests oversold conditions. The technical buy signal strength reaches 10...
Risk Warning: Warrants and bull/bear contracts are derivatives that have expiration dates and leverage characteristics, posing higher risks. Investors need to carefully choose based on their own risk tolerance.
The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently stuck between 5700-5900 points in the short term. Are you more inclined towards 'reducing positions at higher levels' or 'accumulating at lower levels'? When choosing Hang Seng Tech Index warrants, which do you value most: 'leverage,' 'premium,' or 'distance to strike price'?
Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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