[Warrant Perspective] The Hang Seng Index’s mid-term trend is flattening, while short-term bullish-bearish competition intensifies.
January 23rd,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The day closed at 26,749.51 points, slightly up 0.45% for the day, with a 5-day volatility of 2%. The trading volume was 240.872 billion yuan, showing moderate performance. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is at 61, within the neutral range. Indicators such as MACD and Bollinger Bands are giving buy signals, while multiple moving averages indicate a strong sell signal. Overall, the summarized signal remains neutral with a strength of 9, reflecting intense short-term market competition between bulls and bears.
In terms of support and resistance levels, the key supports below for the Hang Seng Index are 26,268 points (primary support) and 25,830 points (secondary support). Key resistances above are found at 27,146 points (primary resistance) and 27,520 points (secondary resistance). Currently, prices are hovering near the MA10 (26,724.13 points), slightly higher than the MA30 (26,152.08 points) and MA60 (26,123.99 points). Mid- to short-term moving averages are showing signs of flattening. Future focus will be on whether the index can stabilize above MA10 and break through the upper resistance levels.
Blue-chip performances were mixed on January 23, with tech stocks and financial stocks showing differing trends. The breakdown is as follows:
Technology sector: $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ was the most active performer, surging 2.84% in a single day to close at 36.24 yuan. The RSI is only at 34, indicating an oversold condition. Technical signals suggest a buy rating with a strength of 10. Although it is consolidating near the MA10 (36.83 yuan) after the rebound, clear signs of bottoming have emerged. $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ rebounded by 2.25% to 168.50 yuan, with the RSI rising to 68, close to overbought levels. The technical signal has turned to sell (strength 8). After breaking through the MA10 (163.06 yuan), caution is needed regarding potential pullback pressure. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ showed mixed performance. The former closed down 0.42% at 595 yuan, with an RSI of 40 in oversold territory, generating a buy signal with strength 9. The stock price remains below short-term moving averages, but preliminary signs of bottoming are emerging. The latter edged up 0.57% to 97.55 yuan, with an RSI of 42 nearing oversold levels, showing a strong buy signal with strength 10. However, constrained by the MA10 and MA30, the momentum for a rebound needs further observation.
Financial sector: $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ remained strong, edging up 0.23% in a single day to close at 130 yuan. The RSI reached 72, entering overbought territory, triggering a sell signal with strength 10. The share price is significantly above the MA10 (127.75 yuan), suggesting growing risks of a pullback despite its strong performance. $CCB (00939.HK)$ 、 $AIA (01299.HK)$ 、 $PING AN (02318.HK)$ showed stable performance. CCB closed flat at 7.61 yuan, with an RSI of 44 and a buy signal strength of 9, hovering around the MA10. Both AIA and Ping An showed neutral technical signals, with the former gaining 0.67% to close at 83.05 yuan and the latter edging up 0.15% to 67 yuan, both maintaining a balance between bullish and bearish sentiment. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ fell 1.03% to close at 422 yuan, with an RSI of 48 presenting a neutral signal. The stock price is below the MA10, showing weak patterns but approaching oversold territory, making its rebound potential worth watching.
Review and Selection of Warrant and Bull/Bear Products
(1) Review of Previous Products
The two Hang Seng Index bull contracts recommended on January 21st showed impressive short-term performance. $BI#HSI RC28086.C (63489.HK)$The increase reached 14% in two days,$BI#HSI RC28081.C (63488.HK)$The increase even reached 15% in two days, while the Hang Seng Index only rose by 0.62% during the same period, fully demonstrating the leverage characteristics of warrant products, bringing excess returns to investors. It should be noted that leveraged products are highly volatile, with both potential gains and risks.
(II) Today's Product Highlights
Considering the neutral trend of the Hang Seng Index on the day and the long-short game landscape, we have selected two call warrant products for investors' reference:
1. $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$: The underlying asset is the Hang Seng Index, with a leverage of 13.4 times and an exercise price of 28,341 points. The core advantage of this product lies in having the lowest implied volatility. In a market environment where volatility remains relatively stable, the downside risk of implied volatility is smaller, and its leverage level is within a reasonable range, making it suitable for investors optimistic about the Hang Seng Index breaking through resistance levels.
2. $JP-HSI @EC2605A.C (22977.HK)$: The underlying asset is the Hang Seng Index, with a leverage of 12.5 times and an exercise price of 28,200 points. This product offers the highest leverage and the lowest premium within the selection, showing a clear cost advantage, making it more suitable for investors seeking high-leverage returns and able to tolerate corresponding volatility risks.
Risk Warning:Warrant products have expiration dates and exercise price restrictions. Investors should rationally choose based on their own risk tolerance and market judgment, while closely monitoring the performance of the underlying stock and the liquidity of the product.
Share your experience: When trading warrants or bull/bear contracts, do you value leverage multiples more, or implied volatility (premium)?Come to the comment section and share your thoughts! Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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