1. Hang Seng Index: Short-term trend is neutral with significant divergence between bullish and bearish views
Simon: On January 23, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly, closing up by about a hundred points, with relatively low volatility. From the trend perspective, after the index touched the bottom of the保利通道 (Bollinger Band) and approached the midline, it gradually rebounded. Trading volume on that day increased slightly compared to the previous day, showing some improvement in overall market sentiment, but no clear directional trend has emerged in the short term.
The overall technical signals for the Hang Seng Index remain neutral, with the index oscillating around 26,700 points and volatility continuing to be weak. There is a notable divergence in market sentiment: bullish investors continue to hold bull certificates with recovery prices of 25,788 and 26,428 points, believing that the index still has upward potential; bearish investors, however, believe that the breakout attempt failed and are planning to deploy bear certificates during rallies, holding products with a recovery price of 26,900 points.
From a trading reference perspective, the Hang Seng Index’s current resistance level is around 27,100 points, and if it breaks through, the next target would be 27,500 points. The support level is initially at 26,200 points, with the next support target at 25,800 points. For investors considering put warrants, it is recommended to choose products with distant strike prices to avoid forced redemption risks. Currently, the market offers high-leverage, low-premium put warrants with strike prices around 27,700 points and leverage of over 25-26 times, as well as products with strike prices around 27,800 points and leverage of 23-25 times; terms can be compared when selecting. Whether deploying bull certificates or put warrants, it is crucial to consider a safe distance to the forced redemption level, reducing the risk of hitting the redemption clause. $BI#HSI RC28081.C (63488.HK)$$BI#HSI RC28086.C (63489.HK)$


Meituan-W (03690.HK): Small rebound at a low position; recommended to choose in-the-money call warrants.
Simon: Meituan-W's recent stock price performance has been weak, maintaining a downward trend. On January 23, the underlying stock rose slightly, reaching a high of nearly 99 yuan during trading, and finally closing at 97.5 yuan. The day’s trading volume increased compared to the previous day, with the share price still fluctuating at a relatively low level. From a technical signal perspective, there are currently more buy signals, totaling 10 buy signals.
The index resistance level is initially seen at 101.8 yuan; if broken through, it will further target 105 yuan. For investors focusing on call warrants, products that are too far out-of-the-money should be avoided. Previously, a call warrant with an exercise price of 130 yuan showed non-following behavior due to being excessively out-of-the-money, causing insufficient demand. Currently, there are in-the-money call warrants on the market with exercise prices between 99-100 yuan, but these products expire in April 2025, making them short-term. There are also in-the-money products with exercise prices around 98 yuan expiring in October 2025, offering leverage of approximately 3.8 times and similar implied volatility. Investors can focus on comparing premium levels for selection.
Warrants are high-risk products, and leverage amplifies profits and losses. It is recommended that investors prioritize products with moderate premiums. Although these products have relatively lower leverage and higher prices, they can mitigate the risk of non-tracking behavior. At the same time, excessively close premiums should also be avoided to prevent triggering forced redemption clauses. Even if an investor correctly predicts the direction of an individual stock, inappropriate product terms may still lead to investment losses. $BP#MTUANRP2806B.P (53350.HK)$$SG#MTUANRP28129.P (54196.HK)$$HSMTUAN@EP2603B.P (20776.HK)$


Trip.Com-S (09961.HK): Gradual recovery from a low position; bullish warrants suggested to align with support levels for recall prices.
Simon: Trip.Com-S previously experienced significant fluctuations, with its stock price dropping to a low of 446 yuan. In recent trading sessions, it has gradually recovered, closing at 485.4 yuan on January 23. However, trading volume continued to decline as the stock price rose. From a technical signal perspective, buy signals currently dominate, with 9 buy signals and 5 sell signals. Some investors have already positioned themselves in related bullish warrants, watching for a potential rebound trend.
The stock's support level is first seen at 457 yuan, with the second target support level at 382 yuan. For investors positioning bullish warrants, it is recommended to choose products with recall prices in the range of 382-457 yuan, which provide more reasonable recall distances. Currently, there are bullish warrants on the market with exercise prices around 400 yuan, offering leverage of about 4 times, and in-the-money products with recall prices around 430 yuan, allowing selections based on individual risk tolerance.
It is advisable to first consider bull certificate products with distant strike prices. Although their leverage is slightly lower, the risk of forced redemption is smaller. In the event of a rapid market adjustment, there will be more time for responsive actions. Avoid choosing products that are overly close in premium to prevent quick forced redemption after the stock price falls below the support level, which could result in investment losses. $SG#TRIP RC2612B.C (67912.HK)$$UB#TRIP RC2604H.C (68163.HK)$


Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK): Stock price surpasses 70 yuan, with short-term sell signals dominating.
Simon: Ganfeng Lithium has maintained an upward trend since mid-December 2024, closing at exactly 70 yuan on January 23, breaking through the top of the Bollinger Band. The day’s trading volume increased compared to the previous few trading days, remaining at relatively high levels. Some investors exited with profits after the stock reached 70 yuan and simultaneously positioned themselves in put warrants, including some holding products with an exercise price of 35.88 yuan.
From a technical signals perspective, there are currently more sell signals than buy signals—10 sell signals versus 4 buy signals—indicating that the short-term technical outlook does not support continued bullish sentiment. Investors still planning to establish long positions should exercise caution. For investors considering put warrants, there are currently few suitable products available in the market, as individual stocks have been on an upward trend for some time, leaving limited near-price options and only a few out-of-the-money products. It is recommended to wait until issuers introduce more products with favorable terms before making comparative investment decisions.


5. Zijin Mining (01818.HK): Following the strong gold price movement, short-term fluctuations will require breaking through the resistance level at 41.4 yuan first.
Simon: On January 23rd, Zijin Mining's share price touched an intraday high but retreated afterward, closing slightly higher at 38.6 yuan, driven by rising gold prices. Market investors generally remain optimistic about its future performance, particularly focusing on whether the stock can break above 43 yuan. From a technical perspective, sell signals slightly outnumber buy signals, indicating that short-term market sentiment is not overly optimistic.
The stock's current support level is approximately HKD 35.5, with initial resistance at HKD 41.4. If the stock wants to further rise above HKD 43 in the future, it must first break through the resistance level at HKD 41.4. In the short term, it is necessary to wait for confirmation of a breakout before considering subsequent positioning. $HUZHJIN@EC2603A.C (21545.HK)$$MBZHJIN@EC2603A.C (20266.HK)$


1. Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): A slight increase from a low position with rising trading volume; bullish investors should look for a step-by-step upward move, starting with breaking above 38 yuan.
Simon: Xiaomi Group-W’s recent share price has shown an overall downward trend, despite some minor rebounds. On January 23rd, the stock closed slightly higher at 36.2 yuan, accompanied by increased trading volume, which is considered a short-term positive signal. Market participants remain optimistic about its future, with some conservative investors expecting the price to reach 50 yuan while holding call warrants with a strike price of 60 yuan.
From a technical standpoint, buy signals currently slightly outweigh sell signals, but the stock lacks sufficient momentum to reach 50 yuan in the short term and requires gradual confirmation of its trend. The immediate resistance level is at 38 yuan; if broken, the next target would be 39.3 yuan. For short-term bullish targets, investors should focus on levels around 39 yuan.
For investors considering call warrants, it is advisable to avoid excessively out-of-the-money products with strike prices above 40 yuan. Such products may fail to track the underlying stock price or even decline during consolidation phases, potentially leading to losses even if the stock moves in the expected direction. Currently, there are multiple near-the-money call warrants offering over three times leverage, with ample supply and over ten choices available for comparison. While these near-the-money products might exhibit minor tracking issues, their deviations are much smaller compared to out-of-the-money products, and they offer more appropriate terms, reducing passive investment risks.


This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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