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wrote a column · Jan 23 19:15

Tesla Earnings Preview: Performance May Decline, What New Story Can Musk Tell?

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Given the company’s prior announcement of a significant decline in vehicle sales for Q4, Tesla's revenue for this quarter may continue to show weakness. As competition in the U.S. electric vehicle market intensifies, Elon Musk urgently needs to craft a new narrative.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. is projected to be 7.8% in 2025, with Tesla holding a 46.2% market share. The market estimates this year’s penetration rate to be approximately 8%, implying limited overall market growth. Considering the scaling up, cost reductions, and expanding market shares of traditional automakers like General Motors in their EV businesses, Tesla still faces significant pressure in vehicle sales.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Given the company’s prior announcement of a significant decline in vehicle sales for Q4, Tesla's revenue for this quarter may continue to show weakness. As competition in the U.S. electric vehicle market intensifies, Elon Musk urgently needs to craft a new narrative. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. is projected to be 7.8% in 2025, with Tesla holding a 46.2% market share. The market estimates this year’s penetration rate to be approximately 8%, implying limited overall market growth. Considering the scaling up, cost reductions, and expanding market shares of traditional automakers like General Motors in their EV businesses, Tesla still faces significant pressure in vehicle sales. A potential turning point lies in whether Tesla can iterate its autonomous driving technology to a level that is sufficiently user-friendly and becomes normalized as a standard feature in consumers’ minds. This year, Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi must primarily address the issue of unsupervised operation; Elon Musk also confirmed at the Davos Forum on January 22 that unsupervised FSD has begun deployment in Texas. Core Financial Indicators – According to Futubull data, the market expects Tesla’s Q4 revenue to be $24.75 billion, a decrease of about3.71%。 – Earnings per share are expected to be approximately $0.352, down from Q4 of the 2024 fiscal year46.61%. Compared to revenue pressures, Tesla faces even greater profitability challenges due to rising copper and aluminum prices potentially squeezing...
The possibility of a plot twist lies in observing whether Tesla can iterate its autonomous driving technology to a sufficiently usable level and reach a point where consumers perceive it as a standard feature. The main issue that FSD and Robotaxi need to address this year is unsupervised operation; Elon Musk also confirmed at the Davos Forum on January 22 that unsupervised FSD has begun deployment in Texas.
Core Financial Indicators
– Futubull data shows the market expects Tesla's fourth-quarter revenue to be $24.75 billion, a decrease from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024.3.71%。
– Earnings per share are approximately $0.352, down from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024.46.61%. Compared to the revenue side, Tesla faces greater pressure on profits because rising copper and aluminum prices may compress the profit margin of the automotive business.
Four key areas of focus
1. Automobile deliveries and production
Tesla previously announced that its fourth-quarter automobile sales fell by 15.6% year-over-year to 418,227 units. The market expects automotive business revenue to be $17.82 billion, compared to $19.4 billion in the same period last year.
The new entry-level Model 3, which was earlier launched in North America, has recently started sales in South Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines. Its reduction in features is less than that of the new entry-level Model Y, but the autonomous driving chip hardware remains untouched. If the new Model 3 validates demand in smaller markets, it may be launched in China later this year.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Given the company’s prior announcement of a significant decline in vehicle sales for Q4, Tesla's revenue for this quarter may continue to show weakness. As competition in the U.S. electric vehicle market intensifies, Elon Musk urgently needs to craft a new narrative. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. is projected to be 7.8% in 2025, with Tesla holding a 46.2% market share. The market estimates this year’s penetration rate to be approximately 8%, implying limited overall market growth. Considering the scaling up, cost reductions, and expanding market shares of traditional automakers like General Motors in their EV businesses, Tesla still faces significant pressure in vehicle sales. A potential turning point lies in whether Tesla can iterate its autonomous driving technology to a level that is sufficiently user-friendly and becomes normalized as a standard feature in consumers’ minds. This year, Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi must primarily address the issue of unsupervised operation; Elon Musk also confirmed at the Davos Forum on January 22 that unsupervised FSD has begun deployment in Texas. Core Financial Indicators – According to Futubull data, the market expects Tesla’s Q4 revenue to be $24.75 billion, a decrease of about3.71%。 – Earnings per share are expected to be approximately $0.352, down from Q4 of the 2024 fiscal year46.61%. Compared to revenue pressures, Tesla faces even greater profitability challenges due to rising copper and aluminum prices potentially squeezing...
2. Energy storage business
Tesla's energy storage division performed exceptionally well, with a record installation volume of 14.2 GWh in the fourth quarter. Full-year deployment reached 46.7 GWh, marking a substantial year-over-year increase of 49%. The energy segment is quickly becoming an important contributor to Tesla's profits. The market forecasts revenue for this segment in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be $3.718 billion, compared to $3.061 billion in the same period last year.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Given the company’s prior announcement of a significant decline in vehicle sales for Q4, Tesla's revenue for this quarter may continue to show weakness. As competition in the U.S. electric vehicle market intensifies, Elon Musk urgently needs to craft a new narrative. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. is projected to be 7.8% in 2025, with Tesla holding a 46.2% market share. The market estimates this year’s penetration rate to be approximately 8%, implying limited overall market growth. Considering the scaling up, cost reductions, and expanding market shares of traditional automakers like General Motors in their EV businesses, Tesla still faces significant pressure in vehicle sales. A potential turning point lies in whether Tesla can iterate its autonomous driving technology to a level that is sufficiently user-friendly and becomes normalized as a standard feature in consumers’ minds. This year, Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi must primarily address the issue of unsupervised operation; Elon Musk also confirmed at the Davos Forum on January 22 that unsupervised FSD has begun deployment in Texas. Core Financial Indicators – According to Futubull data, the market expects Tesla’s Q4 revenue to be $24.75 billion, a decrease of about3.71%。 – Earnings per share are expected to be approximately $0.352, down from Q4 of the 2024 fiscal year46.61%. Compared to revenue pressures, Tesla faces even greater profitability challenges due to rising copper and aluminum prices potentially squeezing...
3. Service revenue
Service revenue growth is expected to partially offset the declining trend in vehicle sales revenue. Bloomberg consensus estimates show service revenue for Q4 at $3.365 billion, compared to $2.848 billion in the same period last year. However, considering that the number of FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscription users has exceeded 1 million and referencing past growth rates, this forecast may be on the conservative side. Actual revenue could surpass $3.5 billion.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Given the company’s prior announcement of a significant decline in vehicle sales for Q4, Tesla's revenue for this quarter may continue to show weakness. As competition in the U.S. electric vehicle market intensifies, Elon Musk urgently needs to craft a new narrative. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. is projected to be 7.8% in 2025, with Tesla holding a 46.2% market share. The market estimates this year’s penetration rate to be approximately 8%, implying limited overall market growth. Considering the scaling up, cost reductions, and expanding market shares of traditional automakers like General Motors in their EV businesses, Tesla still faces significant pressure in vehicle sales. A potential turning point lies in whether Tesla can iterate its autonomous driving technology to a level that is sufficiently user-friendly and becomes normalized as a standard feature in consumers’ minds. This year, Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi must primarily address the issue of unsupervised operation; Elon Musk also confirmed at the Davos Forum on January 22 that unsupervised FSD has begun deployment in Texas. Core Financial Indicators – According to Futubull data, the market expects Tesla’s Q4 revenue to be $24.75 billion, a decrease of about3.71%。 – Earnings per share are expected to be approximately $0.352, down from Q4 of the 2024 fiscal year46.61%. Compared to revenue pressures, Tesla faces even greater profitability challenges due to rising copper and aluminum prices potentially squeezing...
4. Guidance and Strategy Update
Investors should focus on the target for vehicle deliveries in 2026, production progress for Cybercab, production status of Optimus 3, and plans for expanding Robotaxi services to other cities in the United States.
Options market signals
Tesla's options data shows a put/call ratio of 0.80, which is relatively low compared to historical levels. Volatility analysis indicates an implied volatility of 50.51%, higher than the historical volatility level of 37.73%.
In the last 12 earnings reports, Tesla's stock price has averaged a fluctuation of 8.93%, indicating a high-risk, high-reward scenario for betting on Tesla's earnings. In the past 12 earnings announcements, Tesla's stock rose 50% of the time following the release of results.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Given the company’s prior announcement of a significant decline in vehicle sales for Q4, Tesla's revenue for this quarter may continue to show weakness. As competition in the U.S. electric vehicle market intensifies, Elon Musk urgently needs to craft a new narrative. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. is projected to be 7.8% in 2025, with Tesla holding a 46.2% market share. The market estimates this year’s penetration rate to be approximately 8%, implying limited overall market growth. Considering the scaling up, cost reductions, and expanding market shares of traditional automakers like General Motors in their EV businesses, Tesla still faces significant pressure in vehicle sales. A potential turning point lies in whether Tesla can iterate its autonomous driving technology to a level that is sufficiently user-friendly and becomes normalized as a standard feature in consumers’ minds. This year, Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi must primarily address the issue of unsupervised operation; Elon Musk also confirmed at the Davos Forum on January 22 that unsupervised FSD has begun deployment in Texas. Core Financial Indicators – According to Futubull data, the market expects Tesla’s Q4 revenue to be $24.75 billion, a decrease of about3.71%。 – Earnings per share are expected to be approximately $0.352, down from Q4 of the 2024 fiscal year46.61%. Compared to revenue pressures, Tesla faces even greater profitability challenges due to rising copper and aluminum prices potentially squeezing...
Summary
- Potential positive factors: Energy storage business; unsupervised Robotaxi
- Potential risks: Delays in Optimus and other products; competition in the electric vehicle sector
- Valuation: Tesla's current P/E ratio exceeds 200 times. Investors have consistently assigned Tesla a high valuation based on expectations of future monetization from Robotaxi and Optimus robots.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Given the company’s prior announcement of a significant decline in vehicle sales for Q4, Tesla's revenue for this quarter may continue to show weakness. As competition in the U.S. electric vehicle market intensifies, Elon Musk urgently needs to craft a new narrative. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the U.S. is projected to be 7.8% in 2025, with Tesla holding a 46.2% market share. The market estimates this year’s penetration rate to be approximately 8%, implying limited overall market growth. Considering the scaling up, cost reductions, and expanding market shares of traditional automakers like General Motors in their EV businesses, Tesla still faces significant pressure in vehicle sales. A potential turning point lies in whether Tesla can iterate its autonomous driving technology to a level that is sufficiently user-friendly and becomes normalized as a standard feature in consumers’ minds. This year, Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi must primarily address the issue of unsupervised operation; Elon Musk also confirmed at the Davos Forum on January 22 that unsupervised FSD has begun deployment in Texas. Core Financial Indicators – According to Futubull data, the market expects Tesla’s Q4 revenue to be $24.75 billion, a decrease of about3.71%。 – Earnings per share are expected to be approximately $0.352, down from Q4 of the 2024 fiscal year46.61%. Compared to revenue pressures, Tesla faces even greater profitability challenges due to rising copper and aluminum prices potentially squeezing...
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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